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Aug 22 - 04:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Pauses Rally As Dollar Bounces Before Jackson Hole

By Burton Frierson  —  Aug 22 - 02:50 PM

The dollar index rose on Thursday, snapping a four-day slide as markets prepared for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Dovish expectations and a large downward revision to payroll growth in the 12 months through March had contributed to the dollar's recent fall, along with a soft tone in the minutes of the FOMC's latest meeting.

At this point, however, it may be difficult for Powell to surpass the level of dovishness currently discounted by markets.

Fed speakers on Thursday generally added to the sense that a rate cut is coming at the Sept.
17-18 policy meeting, leaving questions about the size of that first and the pace of subsequent easing.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he was on board with a September rate cut as long as the data performs as he expects.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it will soon be appropriate for the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle, signaling her likely support for a rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting next month.

Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid, one of the U.S. central bank's more hawkish policymakers, said he was taking a closer look at the dynamics behind the rise in the unemployment rate and would let data guide him on whether to support a rate cut next month.

U.S.
initial jobless claims rose to 232k, above the Reuters consensus forecast for 230k and the previous week's 228k, which was revised 1k higher.
Continued claims came in lower than expected and only rose due to a downward revision to the previous week's number.

U.S.
manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell further into contraction, according to S&P Global, but growth in the services sector accelerated slightly, confounding the consensus forecast for a deceleration.

Existing home sales rose more than expected in July, while the previous month's data was revised higher.

U.S.
Treasury yields rose 8-9bp across maturities, with the 2s-10s curve flattening 1.55bp to a slightly more inverted -14.79bp.

The S&P 500 had retreated by 0.71% by New York afternoon trade as rising Treasury yields pressured stocks, while investors also awaited Powell's speech.

WTI rallied 1.49%, helped by dovish Fed expectations.

Copper fell 1.36%, retreating from a three-week high and unhelped by the stronger dollar.

Gold fell 1.23%, also hurt by the rebounding U.S. currency and rising Treasury yields.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.38%, USD/JPY +0.72%, GBP/USD +0.01%, AUD/USD -0.59%, EUR/JPY +0.33%, GBP/JPY +0.82%, AUD/JPY +0.13%, =USD +0.4%.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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