April 2 (Reuters) - EUR/USD traded higher Wednesday but near the midpoint of its recent 1.0733-1.0955 range ahead of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, which could significantly impact risk and bring key levels into focus. EUR/USD has been consolidating gains from the rally off the Feb. 28 low since mid March. Consolidation is healthy for trends and in the current scenario is a bullish signal. Completion of the pattern would suggest the broader up trend will resume, resulting in new highs being made. Tariffs that are less severe than some investors anticipate could rally risk and sink the dollar. EUR/USD might then complete its consolidation, potentially result in a break of 1.0950/60 resistance, which could trigger stop loss buying. The 2024 yearly high at 1.12104 and 2023 yearly high at 1.1276 might then be targeted. On the other hand, tariffs that induce a severe risk-off environment could drive safe-haven buying in the dollar and Japanese yen, which could lead to intense selling of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. EUR/USD could break the range base and the 200-DMA, which currently sits near 1.0730. Stop selling could trigger in EUR/USD, resulting in a quick downward move.
Structural support in the 1.0600/30 zone may be the initial
target for EUR/USD bears followed by 1.0525/35, where January
and February monthly highs sit.
eurusd
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)