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Apr 21 - 02:55 PM

EUR: What Did We Learn From The French Debate? - Citi

By eFXdata  —  Apr 21 - 01:30 PM

Citi reviews last night's French presidential election debate. 

"EUR has been unphased by the first French presidential election debate, which has failed to move the needle. Our spot desk had cautioned a clear win for Marine Le Pen could see a return to 1.07. Though the balanced outcome suggests that existing biases from voters may be maintained.

The initial polls are pointing this way with snap survey by Elabe for BFM TV conducted online with 650 participants, found that 59% of polled viewers found Macron more convincing than Le Pen. Reuters reports that in 2017, the same polling firm found that 63% of those surveyed following the debate found Macron more convincing," Citi notes. 

"CitiFX Strategy don’t think we learned much from the debate and still expect a Macron victory. But irrespective of the relevance of the subsequent parliamentary elections in June, a Le Pen victory would be a seismic shock for EU politics at a very challenging time, which they think financial markets would respond too sharply," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary

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