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Danske Research previews the US jobs report for June (due on Thursday).
"We forecast nonfarm payrolls (released already on Thursday ahead of 4 July) at +100,000, slightly below consensus of 110,000, and unemployment rate steady at 4.3%," Danske notes.
"We still see further strategic upside potential for both US rates and broad USD FX but also see some room for a near-term reversal especially if this week’s labour market data comes out cooler than consensus predicts.
We forecast 2x25bp rate hikes from the Fed (slightly more than markets price in, currently 39bp) but only in December and March (markets have fully priced in the first hike by October)," Danske adds.