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Nov 01 - 01:55 PM

USD/JPY - COMMENT- USD/JPY Faces Double-Dose Of Election Risk

By Robert Fullem  —  Nov 01 - 12:15 PM

The yen is facing mostly downside risks as it hovers around the key 152 pivot level ahead of U.S. elections next week.

The currency is among those in Asia vulnerable to depreciation if tariff-supporter Donald Trump secures the U.S. presidential nod next week.
The uncertainty is reflected in one-week yen volatility climbing to 16.4%, the highest level since early August.

Domestic political factors also pose challenges for Japan's currency.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is looking to form an alliance with the Democratic Party for the People ahead of the special Diet Session on Nov.
11 to select a new prime minister.
DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki indicated Friday that
the Bank of Japan should hold off on raising rates for at least six months to ensure wage increase are sustainable and outpace inflation.

According to former central bank board member Takahide Kiuchi, these political dynamics are likely to influence BOJ policy decisions.
He noted at a Reuters forum that the political climate may delay the next rate hike until January and that a new ruling coalition may adopt Tamaki’s easy-money stance.

If dollar-yen rises toward 155 once votes have been counted in the U.S. and Japan's Diet, odds of a BOJ rate hike in December will increase and slow the pace of currency's drop.
In contrast, if yen short-covering sends USD/JPY beneath 150, markets will become more comfortable owning the Japanese currency going forward.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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