Société Générale provides insights on the FX market during a relatively quiet Thanksgiving week. The lack of significant economic data and the holiday distraction are not expected to challenge the prevailing market sentiment of a potential soft landing in the US.
- Quiet Economic Data Week: The week is expected to be quiet in terms of economic data releases, with Thanksgiving possibly diverting attention.
- European PMI Data: The release of European PMI data on Friday might underscore the modest growth in Europe, though it's unlikely to significantly impact market sentiments.
- US Economic Indicators: US PMIs are anticipated to be overshadowed by forthcoming data releases like ISM, payrolls, CPI, and the FOMC meeting in the subsequent weeks.
- Potential Currency Movements:
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: The recent uptrends in EUR/USD and GBP/USD might lose momentum.
- JPY, AUD, and NZD: These currencies are expected to maintain strength for a longer period.
- SEK and NOK: Société Générale suggests that Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK) might regain favor and appreciate against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in a scenario where a soft landing is anticipated in the US.
Société Générale's outlook for the FX market during the Thanksgiving week suggests a period of relative calm, with limited data to influence major shifts in currency trends. The focus is on the potential continuation of current trends, with specific attention to the dynamics of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the currencies of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, and Norway. The anticipation of a US soft landing seems to be the underlying theme affecting currency movements during this period.