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Thomson Reuters
Apr 16 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - The Wait For Some Action Is Hurting Those Long EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Apr 16 - 02:55 AM
  • EUR/USD has traded ranges around a 1.2350 mid-point since the end Jan
  • Specs have been long EUR/USD between EUR 16-19bln throughout this period
  • Without any jobbing in FX the cost for that 14 week hold is around 1%
  • Further widening of key UST/bund spreads mean that cost is set to grow
  • If ranges hold the wait for Jun ECB will cost 0.75%, Sep ECB at least 1.5%
  • The probability long liquidation starts to weigh on EUR/USD is high

eurusd vs 1 month fwd and spec possies Click here

2/10-yr UST/bund spreads Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets

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