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TDUX
Jun 08 - 11:55 PM

USD/JPY - 160 The New 159 Without Intervention

By Haruya Ida  —  Jun 08 - 10:02 PM

June 9 (Reuters) - USD/JPY players appear to be hunkering down for more range trading, this time around 160.00. The pair hit a high of 160.39 EBS on Monday, and the market is preparing for consolidation around 160.00, much like the situation from mid-May when USD/JPY consolidated around 159.00. The threat of Japanese FX intervention has weighed on the markets since mid-May, and will likely continue to limit and slow upside moves. The lack of recent intervention may reflect reduced speculative interest in USD/JPY as trading accounts shifted their attention to equities, which have shown more volatility and profitability. The Mrs Watanabes of Japan and perhaps the world are more actively trading Japanese equities. Anecdotal evidence suggests younger players, including high-school and college students, are joining the herd of day-traders, upping the overall involvement in stock trading, looking to boost disposable income and tuck money away for the future. Tokyo FX speculative trading has therefore ebbed, aside from some carry interest. This has not resulted in less USD buying out of Tokyo however. Solid, continuous demand persists from Japanese importers facing higher import costs, exacerbated by geopolitical developments, and this shows no signs of letting up. To wit, such demand has been apparent at most Tokyo fixes for over a year . Barring actual Japanese intervention, USD/JPY will likely consolidate around 160.00 with the bias remaining to the upside. Massive importer option barriers are tipped at 162.00 and especially 165.00, and could be potential points of contention going forward.

Related comments , , , , .
USD/JPY:


Nikkei 225:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters

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