Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a tactical bullish bias in the near-term.
"For EUR/USD, Friday did prove to take spot higher, though not exactly in the way we had expected. With US payrolls coming in quite short of its 1m target (and some of that might be due to seasonality adjustments), the market took to roll back any notions of near-term tightening/talk of tapering by the Fed. In turn, lower-for-longer and rising inflationary pressures in the market continue to be EUR/USD positive, in line with our near-term expectation," Danske notes.
'This week, focus will turn to a number of Fed speeches, US CPI which is set to accelerate further and retail sales. Given markets have reduced tightening expectations, the key to look out for in terms of a mild dollar comeback would be hawkish Fed speeches. Much stronger than anticipated retail sales could probably have a similar effect. Generally, we expect EUR/USD to stay above 1.20 near term," Danske adds.