By eFXdata — Oct 01 - 10:00 AM
Synopsis:
BofA forecasts a 150k increase in nonfarm payrolls for September, following an August figure of 142k. The anticipated rise in public sector hiring is expected to contribute 20k, leading to a 130k increase in private payrolls, with stability in education and healthcare sectors.
Key Points:
- The unemployment rate is projected to round down and remain unchanged at 4.2%, with the labor force participation rate likely dipping by a tenth to 62.6%.
- Average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to decrease by a tenth to 0.3% month-over-month, while average weekly hours are anticipated to hold steady at 34.3.
Conclusion:
A stronger-than-expected jobs report could shift market expectations toward a 25bp Fed cut in November, while a softer report may lead to increased pricing for more than 75bp of cuts by year-end. However, BofA does not believe the September jobs report will be a decisive factor for the Fed's November decision, as additional data, including inflation metrics and the October jobs report, will be available before the meeting.
Source:
BofA Global Research