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May 15 - 05:55 PM

USD/JPY - Mettle Of Longs Being Tested By US Yield Drop On Softer US Data

By Randolph Donney  —  May 15 - 02:10 PM
  • USD/JPY fell more than 1% on Tsy yld drop after soft US retail sales and CPI

  • Watching pivotal 2-yr and 10-yr Tsy yld supports by 4.71% and 4.34%

  • With JGB ylds trending up due to BoJ's 25bp of expected 2024 rate hikes

  • Versus at least 50bp of Fed rate cuts, Tsy-JGB ylds spreads tumbled in May

  • Prices now nearing 30-DMA and tenkan support at 154.54/33

  • Immediate macro focus is Thur's expected pullback in initial jobless claims

  • If claims don't pullback or they increase, USD/JPY bulls might bail out

  • The 10-WMA at 153.33 that held the last two weeks' lows is key support

  • IMM specs still working off April's 2nd-highest ever net spec USD/JPY long

  • Never mind possible intervention capping prices by 1990's 160.35 high

  • Strong US data, Tsy ylds rebound & close above 61.8% at 157.04 key for longs

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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