• USD/JPY has climbed from 154.22 to 155.25, on Tuesday, EBS data shows

• Bets on GPIF repatriation may be overblown as any shift would be slow

• Spot is trading above the broken 154.66 level is a 23.6% retrace of the 160.39-152.89 Sept fall

• A daily close above the 154.66 level would add to the upside potential

• However, a failure to close above 154.66 would signal a "bull trap"

• A bull trap is set when a market breaks above a tech level but reverses and is usually bearish

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)