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Aug 12 - 06:55 PM

Deutsche Bank: 'We're Pricing Goldilocks but there's Almost No Margin for Error'

By eFXdata  —  Aug 12 - 04:00 PM

Deutsche Bank Research discusses the biggest market dislocations right now.

"Right now, markets are pricing a goldilocks combination where growth remains strong, central banks only hike a bit, that the supply shocks will prove temporary, and oil prices fall back again. This is clearly a very benign scenario, but it leaves next to no margin for error," DB notes.

"In other words, it's hard to imagine this entirely benign set of conditions happening simultaneously, and that's before we consider any future shocks that might occur. After all, if growth does remain strong and financial conditions stay accommodative, that itself increases the pressure on central banks to hike, particularly if inflation remains above target. That's particularly acute right now, as the global economy is facing multiple supply shocks, like the closure of the Strait of  Hormuz, that have persistently kept inflation elevated for longer than many expected. So even as markets are pricing in benign conditions, which makes  change  from several early-August periods in recent years, the risk is there's little margin for error," DB adds.

Source:
Deutsche Bank Research/Market Commentary
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