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Sep 02 - 04:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Builds On Recent Gains As US Payrolls Data Looms

By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 02 - 02:54 PM

The dollar index fell on Thursday as investors ignored slightly below-forecast U.S. jobless claims and above-expectations factory orders to focus on the government's monthly employment report in the following session.

Friday’s payroll, wage and unemployment rate data will be a key test for market expectations about Fed tapering of asset purchases, with a substantial rise in employment seen bringing forward the date for reducing stimulus as the U.S. central bank begins its journey toward policy normalization.

The Reuters consensus forecast for Friday’s August non-farm payroll data is +750k versus +943k in July, with a survey range of 375k to 1,027k, with 80 respondents weighing in.

The dollar has traded lower recently as a growing number of developed market central banks begin removing or preparing to reduce pandemic-era accommodation.
The Fed’s hesitance toward tapering, despite expectations that it will begin by year end, continues to weigh on the dollar.

EUR/USD was up 0.25% at 1.1870 late in the session, after hitting a one-month high of 1.1874.

The euro has been gaining on the dollar after several ECB members this week began to talk about the reduction of asset purchases, which followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's more cautious tone in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week.

USD/JPY remain rangebound, down 0.04% at 110, with 55-day moving average resistance continuing to hinder upward progress, despite intraday rallies as high as 110.42 this week.

Dollar sellers were responding to broad weakness in the U.S. currency ahead of payrolls, though the BOJ is seen more dovish than the Fed.
This should lead to USD/JPY gains once Friday’s jobs-data risk is cleared.

GBP/USD was Thursday’s best performing major pair, up +0.5% at 1.3833 after clearing resistance above 1.38.
A close solidly within the cloud is seen bullish, putting the 1.3911 daily cloud top in focus.

AUD/USD rallied above its 55-DMA at 0.7393 and was last up 0.45% at 0.7402.

U.S.
Treasury yields drifted slightly lower while equities were positive but off their best levels of the day.

Bitcoin, reclaimed $50k before slipping to $49.6k.
Resistance remains firm ahead of the Aug.
23 high of $50.6k and $51.03k, the 61.8% Fib of the $64.9k-$28.6k April-June drop.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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