• EUR/USD, last week, was capped by the major 1.0957 Fibonacci level

• 1.0957 Fibo is 76.4% of the 1.1214 to 1.0125 (Sept to Feb) EBS drop

• Risk of a much bigger drop, especially as there was a close sub 1.0759 Fibo

• 1.0759 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of 1.0125 to 1.0955 (Feb to Mar) rise, Wed

• EUR/USD Trader . Previous update

• FX traders can insure against a deeper EUR/USD drop

Daily Chart:


Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 27 (Reuters) - EUR/USD continues to decline and foreign exchange traders can use a simple option strategy to insure against a bigger EUR/USD setback in the near-term.

The euro bounced off a three-week low touched earlier on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, even as the prospect of an all-out trade war dimmed risk sentiment.

EUR/USD fell to 1.0733 on Thursday and is in danger of a much bigger decline from the March 1.0955 peak. Spot was capped by the major 1.0957 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.1214 to 1.0125 (September to February) EBS drop.

Those who want to insure against a bigger EUR/USD fall can buy a one-week 1.0760 EUR put option at a cost of 45 pips, priced with spot at 1.0765. Profit potential is unlimited if spot is below the 1.0715 breakeven point at the April 3 expiry, while losses are limited to the 45 pips premium paid.

For more, click on [FXBUZ]

Weekly Chart:


Fenix Pricing Grid:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Alison Williams)

• A big swing lower late in the Wed session and a EUR close under its cloud

• A long upper candle shadow keeps the emphasis on the downside

• Early Thurs and EUR/GBP opens below the cloud base, 0.8340

• Fourteen-day momentum increasingly negative and RSI falling

• Initial support at the 100-day moving average, 0.8333

• We lean bearish and look for better levels to reinstate our short

• EUR/GBP Trading Page
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Following the early push up and then down, USD/JPY treading water for now

• Action now mostly around wafer thin 150.20-22 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Range today 150.07-62 EBS, support still ahead of 150.00

• Massive $1.1 bln in option expiries at strike today, likely supportive

• Ascending 100 and 200-HMAs below at 150.02 and 149.56

• Resistance from well ahead of 151.00 (150.95 high Tuesday), 151.66 200-DMA

• Trump across-the-board auto tariff and possible Japan retaliation focus

• Downside still seen limited on pre-Japan fiscal year-end flows

• Risk definitely off on tariffs, Nikkei off almost 1% @37,668 into TSE close

• Related comment , also , ,
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Viking Mines rise 14.3% to A$0.008

• Stock set for its strongest session since February 12

• Mineral explorer announces it has identified a large gold anomaly in Western Australia

• Says initial drilling may have intersected the margins of a larger gold deposit

• Stock flat YTD, including current session's moves
(Reporting by Manasi Dasa in Bengaluru) ((Manasi.DasaSundeepmailto:;))

• JPY up across board on news PM Ishiba considering retaliation for US tariffs

• Ishiba said putting all options on table, talk US investments may be nixed

• USD/JPY up early on Tokyo fix Japanese importer, other demand, move reversed

• Down to 150.08 from 150.62 EBS after Ishiba-speak in Diet testimony

• To area of 150.16-20 wafer thin hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Support ahead of massive $1.1 bln in option expiries today at 150.00

• Ascending 100 and 200-HMAs below at 150.04 and 149.55

• US Treasuries and JGBs see some buying in Tokyo on risk-off mood

• Nikkei -0.9% @37,674 as of TSE AM close, auto stocks hit especially hard

• EUR/JPY off to 161.49 before bouncing later to 161.95 EBS

• Mostly under 159.20-160.31 daily Ichimoku cloud, 161.86-162.04 hourly cloud

• GBP/JPY 193.43-194.10, mostly below 194.04 200-DMA, near 193.81 100-HMA

• AUD/JPY fall limited, 94.37-86, in 96.14-69 daily Ichi cloud, 100-DMA 96.80

• Related comment , , also ,

• Ishiba-speak , , on flows
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

MUFG highlights mounting concerns over the US fiscal position, following a sobering update from Moody’s, which suggests further fiscal weakening—even under optimistic scenarios. The report, along with anticipated federal job losses and falling consumer confidence, reinforces the bank’s bearish outlook for the USD beyond any short-term rebounds.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Moody’s Warns on US Fiscal Deterioration 📉

• Moody’s noted the fiscal position has worsened since it downgraded the US sovereign outlook in 2023.

• Even under “very favourable” conditions, fiscal weakening is likely to persist.

2️⃣ DOGE's Role Adds Policy Uncertainty 🏛️❓

• The Department of Governor Efficiency (DOGE) is central to executing Trump’s tax plans while avoiding a spike in long-term yields.

• Markets remain unsure if DOGE can implement enough spending discipline or offsetting revenue measures, introducing further uncertainty.

3️⃣ Job Losses to Undermine Consumption 💼🛑

• Up to 300k job losses expected from federal layoffs and buyouts, a significant hit to employment and consumer confidence.

• This is likely to dampen consumer spending, contributing to slower US growth in H2.

4️⃣ Implications for the USD 💵⬇️

• Fiscal risks and consumer retrenchment create a negative backdrop for the USD.

• While short-term recoveries are possible, the medium-term trend remains bearish, especially as the Fed will likely prioritize growth risks.

Conclusion:

MUFG sees rising fiscal risk and labor market fragility as key factors undermining the US dollar over the medium term. Even if the USD experiences short-lived rebounds, the deteriorating fiscal outlook, slower consumer spending, and increased policy uncertainty—especially surrounding DOGE—will weigh on the greenback as the year progresses.

• USD/JPY off hard from early Asia 150.62 high, to 150.08 EBS so far

• Demand seen into today's Tokyo fix but Ishiba news have trumped this

• Japan PM Ishiba said "all options on table" in dealing with auto tariffs

• In Diet testimony, Ishiba said thinking about appropriate response to US

• Tokyo pundits speculate Japan could hold back on promised US investments

• With a full-fledged trade war possibly brewing, Nikkei off large

• Risk mood off large on back of the US and Japan news

• Follows sell-off on Wall St overnight on tariff news, Nikkei -1.1% @37,593

• USD/JPY down to area of 150.12-19 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Ascending 100 and 200-DMAs below cloud at 149.97, 149.53

• Massive $1.1 bln in option expiries at 150.00 today supportive so far

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY 150.30-62 EBS in Asia trading, buoyant but holding sub-151.00

• Follows a 149.87-150.75 range yesterday, Trump tariffs weighing on the yen

• Seems Japan may not be spared, market on tenterhooks for more news on topic

• US rates steady, Treasury 2s @4.007%, 10s @4.348%

• JGB yields firmer still on BOJ May hike view, 2s @0.876%, 10s @1.587%

• Japanese importer demand, month/qtr/Japan fiscal yr-end flows supportive?

• USD/JPY tech support from 150.31 hourly Ichimoku kijun, tenkan 150.51 above

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 150.10-16 below, still ascending, wafer thin

• Key level to topside still descending 200-DMA at 151.66

• Nearby option expiries today 150.00 $1.1 bln, 150.50-55 $501 mln

• Also 151.00 $411 mln and 151.80 $471 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , tariffs , US debt
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Trades off 0.1% as Trump confirmed U.S. car tariffs after closing down 0.45%

• Fim Min Reeves trimmed her spending plans 10yr gilt closed 4bp lower 4.714%

• UK bond chief announced an 'important shift' away from long-dated issuance

• UK to become 'defence industrial superpower', finance minister Reeves says

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day MAs coil, as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Bearish daily momentum studies - the Feb/March uptrend is under pressure

• 1.2883 21-day moving average has broken early - 1.2802 200 DMA next support

• 1.2974 high this week and the 1.3015 2025 trend top are first resistance

• A close below the 1.2802 200-day moving average ends the topside bias
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Trades down 0.1% after the U.S. car tariff confirmation - closed down 0.4%

• The European Commission to assess Trump's car tariffs, says von der Leyen

• Ukraine and Russia's truce agreements run into trouble within hours

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-DMAs conflict, as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Daily momentum studies fall - uptrend stalled, leaving a neutral setup

• The 1.0839 easing 10 DMA, then this week's 1.0858 high are first resistance

• Close pivotal 1.0727 200 DMA, then 1.0637, 0.382% Feb/March rise support

• 1.0700 1.424 BLN, 1.0715 888 mln, 1.0750 1.882 BLN close March 27th strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD ceded Wed's gains in NY as tariff news/data sent U.S. yields higher

• Optimism on narrower tariffs faded, focus turning to car tariff announcement

• U.S. durable goods +0.9% (poll -1.0%), front-loading distortion likely

• AUD traders look to Mar 31-Apr 1 RBA meeting, OCR steady, statement crucial

• The pair close to the hourly lower Bollinger band, looks oversold short-term

• Overnight AUD range 0.6285-0.6330, support 0.6260, resistance 0.6390 0.6415
AUD near lower Bollinger Band on hourly

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Nomura maintains a long JPY bias, citing heightened uncertainty around US tariff policy, the Bank of Japan’s sensitivity to yen weakness, and domestic political focus on inflation control. While the BoJ is not expected to hike earlier than current market pricing, Japan’s policy stance suggests yen-supportive undercurrents remain intact.

Key Points:

1️⃣ US Tariff Volatility Supports JPY Longs 📉🗽

• Nomura highlights unpredictable US trade policy as a persistent source of market volatility.

• In this context, the yen remains a preferred safe haven despite broader uncertainty.

2️⃣ BoJ Still Responds to Yen Moves 📊🏦

• BoJ’s January meeting minutes show it remains attentive to JPY depreciation, even without signaling early rate hikes.

• This implies implicit support for the currency, especially if weakness returns.

3️⃣ Domestic Policy Aimed at Curbing Inflation 📉🗳️

• Reports suggest PM Ishiba is pushing for anti-inflation measures ahead of the summer Upper House elections.

• These policies, if implemented, would likely limit inflation risks and cap BoJ policy divergence with the Fed.

Conclusion:

Nomura remains constructive on the yen, citing external tariff-driven volatility, BoJ’s reaction function to FX, and Japan’s political focus on managing inflation. Even without imminent BoJ hikes, the macro and policy mix supports a continued long JPY bias, especially in an environment of rising global uncertainty.

• USD/JPY settles above 150 as tariff worries lift greenback

• Shares slid on report of pending U.S. auto tariff announcement

• Pair struggles to top session high of 150.75

• Trsy yields firm after Fed comments on keeping rates steady

• Higher lows supports though pair struggles to set new highs

• Resist: 150.93-95 Feb 7 low and day's high; 151.30 Mar high

• Supp: 149.60-55 9-day EMA and Tues. low; 149.10 March 18 low
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

March 26 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose on Wednesday ​due to worries about a possible announcement from the Trump administration regarding auto tariffs, which undermined investor confidence. EUR/USD reached a session low after Maroš Šefčovič, the European Union's chief trade negotiator, indicated that President Donald Trump might impose tariffs of approximately 20% on the bloc next week. U.S. President Donald Trump is readying an announcement on auto levies as soon as Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Treasury yields firmed marginally after a jump in durable goods orders in February and comments by Fed officials. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem maintained the U.S. central bank's steady-rate rhetoric. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office forecast that the U.S. government will probably risk defaulting on some of its $36.6 trillion in debt as soon as August - or possibly even by late May - unless Congress acts to raise the nation's debt ceiling, .

EUR/USD slid below a flag base at the March 6 low of 1.0766 following the tariff warning by EU's Šefčovič.

A rising 21-day moving average at 1.0761 offers support ahead of its 1.0727 200-day moving average, though the pair may be hemmed in by large 1.0750-1.0800 option strikes expiring on Thursday and Friday. European Central Bank governing council member Fabio Panetta said in a letter to the Financial Times that the bank must be pragmatic and data-driven in setting its interest rates. GBP/USD remained under pressure following a report indicating that U.K. CPI slowed more than anticipated in February. A much-anticipated budget update from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves revealed lower-than-expected UK borrowing requirements for the 2025/26 financial year. Cable's 21-day moving average at 1.2873 offered support for the New York session.

EUR/GBP hovered above its 100-day moving average of 0.8330 after the Reeves update though EUR1.7b of 0.8465 expiries on Thursday will likely cap gains.

USD/JPY trimmed gains after nearing a session high of 150.75 as declining U.S. stock prices boosted the yen's haven appeal. USD/JPY continues be in a bull trend from the March 11 low though upward momentum is slowing after it failed to make a new daily high above 151. The March high of 151.30 is nearby resistance above 151, while bulls would likely be neutralized on a drop below Tuesday's low of 149.55 and the 9-day exponential moving average at 149.60.

Increasing prices of oil and metals bolstered commodity currencies against their G10 counterparts. USD/CNH rose for seventh day and challenged its 100-day moving average after Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expressed concerns over U.S. tariffs, while PBOC advisor Huang Yiping said there was significant room to stimulate the economy.

Treasury yields were up about 3 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was up about 2 basis points to +29.7bp.

The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, dragged down by tech shares.

Oil prices rose 1% following EIA data showing a drop in crude inventories and on concerns about tighter global supply.

Gold was little changed while Comex copper rose 0.5%, hitting a fresh record on U.S. tariff fears.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.32%, USD/JPY +0.36%, GBP/USD -0.46%, AUD/USD -0.22%, =USD +0.31%, EUR/JPY +0.04%, GBP/JPY -0.11%, AUD/JPY +0.16%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.6325 after AUD/USD rallied 0.6279-0.6330 overnight

• Pair steadily fell in NY trading on firmed US yields , US$

• USD/CNH rally above 7.2810, equity losses boosted the US$

• AUD/USD hit 0.6279 as risk soured further on the latest tariff reports

• AUD/USD bounced slightly but traded down -0.11% in NY's afternoon

• Falling daily RSI, move below 10- & 21-DMAs are concerns for AUD/USD bulls
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, but warns that the next leg higher may be slower and more complex, as rising prices are starting to weigh on physical demand, particularly from major consumers like India and China. Investment demand remains firm, but a cooling in speculative positioning and softer jewellery demand could moderate upside momentum.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Gold Has Rallied Rapidly to $3,000/oz ⚡️

• The move from $2,500 to $3,000 was the fastest milestone climb on record, per WGC.

• This rapid appreciation may now be dampening physical demand.

2️⃣ Jewellery Demand Softening in Key Markets 💍📉

• India’s gold imports more than halved in Jan–Feb from Q4 levels despite the wedding season.

• In China, SGE withdrawals were -29% YoY in February, as jewellery demand faltered, offsetting strong investor interest.

3️⃣ Speculative Positioning Eases 📊

• COMEX long positions have fallen to 257k lots, down from over 300k in mid-February.

• This shift in positioning has become a key influence on near-term price action.

4️⃣ Investment & Central Bank Demand Still Solid 🏦

• Despite softening in consumer demand, ETF flows and central bank buying remain supportive, forming a strong base for gold.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley believes gold has further upside, but warns that momentum is slowing after an exceptionally rapid surge. With jewellery demand weakening and speculative positions unwinding, the next leg of the rally will be more measured, though robust investment and central bank flows continue to underpin the longer-term bullish view.

• $CAD soft into Europe close, -0.23% at 1.4244; Wednesday range 1.4297-36

• Pair dips to 4-week low amid softer Trump-tariff rhetoric

• Canada yield rise outpacing UST yield rise aid CAD gain

• Commods bid aids CAD rise; oil +1.3%, copper +0.7% on less-dour growth view

• LSEG's IRPR- Fed, BoC on hold until June; Fed -62bp, BoC -41bp by Dec meets

• $CAD supt 1.4233 falling lwr 21-d Bolli, 1.4148- 61.8% Fib of 1.3750-1.4792

• Res 1.4297 Wednesday high, 1.4326 falling 10-DMA, 1.4369 daily cloud base

CAD Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

SocGen highlights 1.0725—the 200-day moving average (DMA)—as a critical support zone for EUR/USD, following the pair’s failure to break strong resistance at 1.0950. While the uptrend is not reversing, momentum indicators suggest a potential pause or pullback in the near term.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Rally Stalls Below 1.0950 Resistance ⛔️

• EUR/USD surged earlier in the month but struggled to break above 1.0950, triggering a mild correction.

• This zone is now seen as a firm technical ceiling unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge.

2️⃣ 200-DMA at 1.0725 Now Key Support 🔻

• The 200-day moving average (currently at 1.0725) is viewed as critical near-term support.

• A clear break below could open the door for deeper retracement.

3️⃣ Momentum Slowing, Not Reversing ⚖️

• MACD is challenging its trigger line, suggesting fading upside momentum, but not signaling a trend reversal.

• Price action implies a potential pause in bullish momentum, not necessarily a broader downturn.

Conclusion:

SocGen sees 1.0725 (200-DMA) as the technical line in the sand for EUR/USD following a sharp rally and rejection at 1.0950. While momentum is cooling, the broader trend remains intact. Traders should watch the 200-DMA as a pivot, with a break potentially leading to deeper corrective moves.

• Cable falls to 1.2874 following UK budget update, OBR news

• 1.2874 is lowest level since March 11 (1.2874 was also low that day)

• 1.2881 was low before UK budget update, after cooler UK CPI data

• 1.2929 was Asia low, pre-UK inflation data (1.2904-1.2966 was Tuesday range)

• DMO to issue 299 billion pounds of gilts in 2025/26; 304 bln was forecast

• U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly drop in February

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

As Japan’s new fiscal year begins, BofA expects structural capital outflows to persist, with lifers selectively re-entering foreign bond markets, particularly hedged EUR-denominated debt. Meanwhile, unhedged flows are likely to favor buying dips in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, with EUR/JPY especially supported by Europe’s fiscal expansion and attractive yield differentials. On the rates side, BofA sees scope for JGB curve flattening, especially in the superlong end.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Structural Outflows to Continue 🌍📤

• Japanese investors, particularly life insurers, will likely resume foreign bond buying, though cautiously.

• Preference is for hedged EUR bonds, while unhedged dips in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are likely to attract demand.

2️⃣ EUR/JPY Supported by Europe’s Fiscal Outlook 💶🔼

• Europe’s fiscal expansion and bond issuance continue to attract Japanese investor interest.

• Structural outflows + EUR demand = tailwind for EUR/JPY upside.

3️⃣ FX and Rates Trade Recommendations 📊💱

• Buy 1yr EUR/JPY call to express bullish view on currency pair.

• Initiate 10s20s JGB curve flattener—expecting superlong JGB demand to return as yield spike moderates.

4️⃣ BoJ Uncertainty Keeps Long-Term Demand Cautious 🏦❓

• While lifers may return to the superlong end, intermediate and long-dated JGB demand remains tentative, as markets assess BoJ’s terminal rate and inflation trajectory.

Conclusion:

BofA expects Japan’s fiscal year reset to reignite structural outflows, with EUR/JPY benefiting most from portfolio reallocation and Europe’s fiscal backdrop. On the domestic front, curve flatteners in JGBs are favored, especially as superlong demand may re-emerge. Uncertainty around BoJ policy may limit the breadth of domestic bond demand, but selective foreign bond appetite and FX positioning offer compelling trades

• Video game retailer GameStop's shares rise ~14% to $28.96 premarket

• On Tuesday, GME said its board approved adding bitcoin as treasury reserve asset

• GME also reported Q4 net income of $131.3 mln, compared with $63.1 mln a year ago

• Posted Q4 sales of $1.28 bln, below analysts' est of $1.48 bln - LSEG

• GME closed 590 stores in 2024 and plans to close more stores in 2025

• Stock gained 68% in the last 12 months

(Reporting by Kamal Choudhury in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD hits 0.6329, high since March 20, after extending north from 0.6279

• 0.6279 was Asian session low, after cooler than expected Australian CPI data

• RBA is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week (April 1)

• Macquarie pushes out RBA rate cut call to August from May

• 0.6364 was March 20 high - before AUD fell on Australian employment fall

• Australian government raises borrowing requirement after budget

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 26 (Reuters) - A strong up-trend since the middle of January has seen GBP/USD gain nearly 8% and corrective pullbacks have been small, but there are signs that a larger sterling adjustment might be building.

A breakdown on the daily chart to levels below the 10-day moving average, 1.2954, and the potential pull of a March 26 1.2442-44 Ichimoku cloud twist are increasing the risk of a weak close on the week.

Alarm bells are ringing on the weekly chart with long upper candlestick shadows suggesting significant demand fade. A false break of the weekly Ichimoku cloud top also highlights sterling's plight.

The weekly cloud top was breached in early March and the second week of the month saw a new trend high of 1.2990. Consecutive closes above the cloud bode well for the pound. However, a drop and close back inside the cloud last week and further weakness this week point to either a period of corrective consolidation or a trend reversal. Last week's 1.3015 trend high has been left high and dry.

A minimum correction taken off the 1.2100-1.3015 January-March rally comes in at 1.2799 and serves as a pullback target. The key 50% Fibonacci turning point, taken off the early 2025 bull run, is at 1.2558.
GBP/USD weekly candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)