• AUD/USD hits 0.6902 intra-day high as yen jumps against U.S. dollar

• U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT: June NFP forecast at 110k; jobless rate f/c 4.3%

• USD might weaken on NFP miss, with scope for AUD/USD to rise to 0.6930

• 0.6930 was Tuesday peak (scaled at the quarter-end London fix)

• AUD/USD support levels include 0.6883 (Wednesday low) and 0.6865 (200DMA)

• Australia posted goods trade deficit of A$3 billion in May, largest since 2015

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Dollar steady ahead of US payrolls, yen intervention jitters persist

• Japan shifts to ambush intervention tactics against yen short sellers, sources say

• USD/JPY has slipped from 162.60 to 161.12, on Thursday, EBS data shows

• Spot finds support ahead of 160.99 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 155.00-162.84 (May-July) rise

• Market nervous over possible Japan FX intervention post-US jobs report

• EUR/JPY's relationship with USD/JPY is broken, 30-day log correlation near to zero

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3298 on further buying of the pound; EUR/GBP down to 0.8565

• 1.3298 is two-week high for GBP/USD; 0.8565 is one-year low for EUR/GBP

• Cable high on Wednesday was 1.3292, when the EUR/GBP low was 0.8567

• On Wednesday, Bailey said BoE interest rate cuts are not back on the table

• U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT: June NFP forecast at 110k; jobless rate f/c 4.3%

• South Korea's currency chief says in talks with Japan, U.S. on FX issues

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Seems position adjustments taking place ahead of tonight's US jobs report

• USD/JPY from 162.58 early high to 162.37 EBS, into 162.28-55 hourly cloud

• Tracking away from 162.84 record high Tuesday, 162.77 high yesterday

• Towards 162.30 retracement low yesterday

• Should yen short-covering continue into London, US, more downside possible

• Support below ascending hourly Ichi cloud at ascending 100-HMA at 162.17

• More support/bids eyed around 162.00, then ascending 200-HMA at 161.91

• Market nervous over possible Japan FX intervention post-US jobs report

• In thin conditions, talk FX action could continue into Friday's US holiday

• Related comment , also ,

• On possible Japan FX action , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Black Bear Minerals rise 9.9% to A$0.5, on pace for their strongest trading session since mid-May

• Specialty miner reports high-grade silver mineralisation at its Shafter project in Texas, U.S.

• Adds, drilling result strongly suggests deposits outside the initial scope, highlights potential for further exploration

• Stock down 50.5% YTD, including the day's moves
(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD inches higher after holding above Wednesday's 0.6883 low

• Base building continues with strong support seen at 0.6849-0.6865

• 0.6865 is the 200-day MA, 0.6849 is 50% of Nov-May rally (0.6422-0.7277)

• More support at 0.6834 March low; resistance 0.6930, 0.6950

• Focus now on Thu U.S. payroll report after Warsh calms markets on inflation

• Australia trade swings to $2.1 billion deficit in May, largest since 2015

• Asia range 0.68845-0.6897
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise 2.3%; on track to snap three straight sessions of losses

• Gold prices extended gains on the day, as investors took stock of softer-than-expected jobs data, while lower oil prices lent additional support to bullion [GOL/]

• Ora Banda Mining up 7.6%, Bellevue Gold up over 2%

• Northern Star Resources shares were up 3.3% after the company named Suresh Vadnagra as its next CEO in a move that may placate activist investor Elliott, which is seeking an overhaul of the company

• YTD sub-index down over 19%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY continuing to consolidate on 162 handle into US NFP/jobs report

• Asia 162.49-58 EBS so far, 40-year high of 162.84 was recorded yesterday

• Downside continues to be limited with demand strong

• Japanese importers whose option barriers knocked out, retail/NISA flows too

• Foreign investors buying Japanese stocks continuing to currency hedge too

• Offers still ahead of 163.00 but stops eyed above with some KOs tipped

• Threat of Japanese FX intervention still, thinking may come post-US jobs

• MOF may be targeting thinner markets then, on US Independence Day holiday

• Tech support from 162.49 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, cloud 162.19-40 below

• $2.4 bln in option expiries today on 162 handle, to help contain spot

• Large expiries above and below too

• Hawkish Fed Warsh comments, US short yields up, JGB-US Tsy rate diffs wider

• In 2s, differential back out to @278 bps, 10s perk up too to @176 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Fed Warsh-speak

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD likely to consolidate in Asia after closing 0.35% lower on Wednesday

• Struggles to hold above 0.6900 as bearish sentiment remains entrenched

• Fed Chair Warsh's comments taken in stride, focus on US payroll report Thu

• Warsh says inflation risks have eased but Fed to stick to inflation target

• Strong support at 0.6849-0.6863, 50% of Nov-May rally and 200-day MA

• More support at 0.6834 March low; resistance 0.6930, 0.6950

• Australia's May trade data due Thu; Wednesday range 0.6883-0.6921
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research raises its USD/CAD targets and now expects the pair to trade around 1.140 in Q3 and 1.38 by year-end.

"USD/CAD’s rally from just short of 1.35 to just shy of 1.43 in less than two months has followed a steep widening in rate differentials, with for instance the 2Y spread rising nearly 50bp to around 130-140bp. Looking at the shorter end, it means the first BoC hike is not fully priced in until March, whereas US money markets see 1.5 rate hikes from the Fed by the turn of the year," CACIB notes.

"We have raised our USD/CAD forecast profile to account for the recent USD resurgence and Canada/BoC’s struggles to follow in the footsteps of the hawkish US/Fed repricing. Yet, such a regional decoupling now appears overdone to us, as we still expect USD/CAD to re-establish itself within 1.35/1.40 in the coming months," CACIB adds.

• GBP$ firm in NorAm trading, +0.13% at 1.3282; NorAm range 1.3292-1.3220

• Slight gain obscures cable drift to fresh 2-wk high near 1.33

• Pair caught a bid after Warsh's Sintra comments on easing inflation risks

• Rally stalled ahead of big-figure resistance at 1.33 awaiting Thursday NFP data

• LSEG's IRPR indicating 80% odds for Fed cut in Sept, +35bp by Dec FOMC meet

• BoE policy path a touch more dovish, futures indicate +17bp by Dec MPC meeting

• GBP$ res 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3325 daily high June 18, 1.3399 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3227 the 10-DMA, 1.3200 big-figure supt, 1.3155 lower 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1400 after 1.1420 traded overnight, the pair fell in early trading

• USD, US yield gains & wider spreads weighed on the pair

• 1.1362 traded but the pair rallied sharply on Fed Chair Warsh's comment on inflation

• USD and US yields moved downward & USD/CNH fell towards 6.7925

• Gold , silver & equities rallied after the comments

• EUR/USD hit 1.1412 then slid as USD firmed up while stocks eroded some gains

• The pair fell toward 1.1380 late in the session, EUR/USD was down -0.36%

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs & hold below the 10-DMA are bearish tech signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6900 after 0.6883 traded overnight, the pair fell in early trading

• 0.6885 traded on the back of USD buying & US yields

gains

• Buyers emerged however as USD, US yield softened & gold, silver, equities moved up

• Fed Chair Warsh's comment on inflation helped to buoy riskier assets

• AUD/USD hit 0.6921 then pulled back, neared 0.6900 late, traded down -0.27%

• Falling RSIs, pair's hold below the falling 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish tech signals

• US June payroll report tomorrow is now in focus for investors
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan summarizes its bias on EUR and CHF in the very near-term.

'The level to watch on a closing basis is below 1.1340 (38.2 retracement of move from 2025 lows to 2026 highs), on the topside now back above 1.15 and think we would see some squaring and thinking about the Summer," JPM notes.

"CHF strength once again over month end yesterday, and used the dip in USDCHF to get back into longs. Still think short CHF makes a lot of sense, especially in a portfolio where we're long higher yielders elsewhere," JPM adds.

Fear of missing out on a USD/JPY rally is increasingly pushing 170 into view as the yen languishes near multi-decade lows with little meaningful resistance from Japanese authorities. Pro-growth government policies, coupled with the BOJ’s cautious stance on policy normalization, continue to reinforce a self-sustaining bearish-yen dynamic. A Tankan index at an eight-year high underscores the central bank’s accommodative bias rather than altering it, reinforcing expectations that policy divergence will persist.

In this environment, options markets are pricing significant two-way risk over the near term. Traders are bracing for either imminent intervention or a swift move toward higher levels, with 165 and even 170 now discussed if authorities remain sidelined given positive spot/vol dynamics. That asymmetry itself highlights an increasingly crowded narrative.

Speculation is building that officials may be allowing conditions to ripen ahead of U.S. payrolls and a long U.S. weekend. The pre-weekend timing has precedent, though aligning intervention with major U.S. data is a dated concept. Nonetheless, several indicators point to heightened intervention risk. They include stretched short-yen positioning, elevated option convexity, close proximity to barrier structures that may be linked to Japanese accounts, and sustained trade above the 162 psychological threshold.

Countervailing factors include the orderly nature of USD/JPY’s rise alongside broad dollar strength, relatively measured official rhetoric, muted pushback from Japanese industry leaders, and the absence of imminent high-level policy meetings to support intervening. Ultimately, fear of a sharpy higher USD/JPY alone could still trigger action, though the broader bullish trend won't be challenged until it closes decisively below a rising 21-day moving average at 161.02 and ultimately 160. A turn down in the broader dollar or bullish yen seasonality for July may help that occur more naturally.
Yen convexity


Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and flags the formation of a diamond top on the monthly chart.

"A diamond top pattern suggests the uptrend from the 2022 low is at risk of ending. In 3Q26, we favor following the breakout, which looks like it may be lower," BofA notes.

"A monthly and/or weekly close below 1.32 will start to break the support of the top pattern and the uptrend line from the 2022 lows. Below 1.3010 breaks the low of the pattern. 

Downside targets to consider include 1.2790-1.2775 and 1.2580. However, a strong rebound above 1.3509 / 1.3660 could suggest this is not a top and upside to the 200m SMA at about 1.40 may follow," BofA adds.

EUR/USD dropped to a three-session low on Wednesday, with risks of further declines growing amid a confluence of factors including euro zone inflation data, ECB commentary, and shifting yield differentials. Euro zone inflation for June came in at 2.8%, well below the 3.0% estimate and May's 3.2% reading, signaling that disinflation may be gaining traction. This softer inflation print adds to a recent string of lower-than-expected pricing data, reinforcing the notion that the ECB may be nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle. Several ECB officials echoed this sentiment. ECB's Demarco cautioned against rushing further rate hikes, while policymaker Joachim Nagel noted that second-round effects from Germany's energy price surge remain minimal. ECB President Christine Lagarde further tempered rate hike expectations by stating that risks to euro zone inflation and economic growth are now more broadly balanced compared to just a few weeks ago.

Markets responded swiftly, with German 2-year yields

falling and December Euribor futures rallying as investors scaled back ECB rate hike bets. U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads broke below key support near -163bps, hitting levels not seen since September 2025.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch U.S. employment and inflation data due Thursday. Strong jobs figures and sticky inflation could bolster the dollar and lift U.S. interest rates, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and pushing EUR/USD lower.
deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US June jobs report due on Thursday.

"We expect a 130k increase in payrolls in June (vs. 115k consensus), boosted by two special factors. We estimate that the World Cup boosted payroll growth by 40k.  A positive June initial print bias centered on state and local government educational services could provide a large boost too (the category has printed 45k higher in the first release than in the third on average over the last 3 years)," GS notes.

"We expect an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.3%, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims.  Our slack tracker—a composite of ten indicators of labor market strength—is higher at 4.8%. We forecast a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting negative calendar effects.  Our wage growth tracker has fallen to 3.3% year-over-year, below the 4% rate compatible with 2% inflation," GS adds.

• EUR/USD fell back below the 10-DMA overnight, traded 1.1420-1.1386

• NY opened near 1.1400, the pair traded down -0.23% in early action

• Broad-based USD buying, rally in US yields weighed on EUR/USD

• Drops in gold, silver, equities & rally in USD/CNH contributed weight on EUR/USD

• EUR/USD is consolidating gains from the rally off the June 24 low, is a bull signal

• Hold below 10- & 21-DMAs, falling RSIs are concerns for EUR/UDS bulls however

• US June ADP & ISM manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY's morning

• Investors to focus Fed Chair Warsh's talk in Sintra Portugal at 9:00 EDT
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD traded 0.6921-0.6883 overnight, NY opened near 0.6895, down -0.32%

• Broad based USD buying & rally in US yields weighed on the pair

• USD/CNH rally to 6.8025, drops in gold, silver, copper & equities added weight

• AUD/USD remained with Tuesday's daily range & above the 200-DMA however

• Break below those supports could lead to a deep fall for AUD/USD

• US June ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP extends south to 0.8593 after softer than expected EZ inflation data

• Up 2.8% YY in June vs 3.0% f/c. 0.8593 is the lowest level since 2 July 2025

• 0.8600 was EUR/GBP low before the euro zone inflation data

• Cooler print is blow for hawks advocating another ECB rate hike on July 23

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% on July 30

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

FX implied volatility is a market-derived gauge of expected price movement — and with the shortest-dated expiries now rolling over to capture Thursday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data, the overnight tenor has become the clearest indicator of how dealers are pricing that risk.

Adding to the appeal of overnight options, holders also get exposure to the heavyweight central bank speaker lineup at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal — including U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. None are expected to materially move FX markets, but with Warsh still a relatively unknown quantity, you never quite know. For those already holding overnight options for NFP, the Sintra speakers are a bonus free option within the same expiry window.

Overnight FX options expire the next business day at 10 a.m. New York / 3 p.m. London, fully capturing the payrolls, which are being released a day early due to Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Implied volatility has risen sharply across the board, more so than last month, suggesting dealers are not just hedging the event but respecting the broader market backdrop. USD/JPY saw the most dramatic move. The pair has extended to fresh 40-year highs above 162.00, keeping intervention risk firmly in focus. Overnight implied vol has surged from 10.75 to 16.0, translating to a straddle break-even of 108 JPY pips, up from 73 pips — reflecting both NFP risk and heightened sensitivity around intervention levels.

EUR/USD overnight vol rose from 7.75 to 10.75, lifting the straddle break-even from 37 to 51 USD pips — suggesting the market sees a meaningful data surprise as a real possibility.

AUD/USD overnight vol climbed from 11.0 to 13.5, pushing the break-even from 31 to 39 USD pips — a more measured move, consistent with AUD's lower sensitivity to U.S. payrolls relative to the other pairs. In summary, overnight vol has risen materially across all three pairs, with USD/JPY the standout given spot at 40-year highs and intervention risk simmering in the background. A significant NFP surprise could test both break-even levels and MoF patience simultaneously — and with the Sintra speakers thrown in for free, overnight options look well priced for the risk on offer.
Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY extends its 40-year high to 162.84 Wednesday, 163.00 option barriers are the next major resistance

• FX option implied volatility extends gains - 1-month to 8.2 from 6.8 on Monday when spot was still below 162.00

• 1-month risk reversals retain a strong vol premium for JPY calls over puts despite higher spot - flags intervention risk

• Butterfly spread options maintain multi-year highs - would benefit from a bigger FX move in either direction

• There's also been outright demand for JPY puts with strikes at 164-165 - suggesting traders not ruling out more FX gains

• Thursday's NFP a key catalyst — a strong beat could fuel more USD/JPY gains and heighten intervention risk

• Thin liquidity amid Friday's US holiday could amplify intervention impact — ideal window for MoF to act
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

July 1 (Reuters) - EUR/GBP has been locked in a technically significant battle since peaking at 0.8729 on May 15. According to LSEG data, the pair has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 100-day simple moving average, currently sitting at 0.8671 — a level that has emerged as the defining line of resistance in recent weeks.

The pattern of failed breakouts is a textbook bearish signal. Each intraday push above the 100-day MA has been met with renewed selling pressure, with the market closing back beneath it — what technicians refer to as a false break or bull trap. A brief close above the average on June 18 offered a fleeting glimmer of recovery, but it failed to attract follow-through buying and the pair quickly retreated. The repeated rejection of EUR/GBP advances signals that the medium-term trend remains firmly in sterling's favour.

The fundamental backdrop justifies the technical weakness. The Bank of England's MPC left rates unchanged at 3.75% on June 18, with two members actually voting for a 25 basis point hike — a notably hawkish split that keeps rate cut expectations firmly in check. UK CPI remains above the MPC's 2% target, and the Bank expects inflation to rise further in the second half of 2026.

By contrast, the ECB's cumulative 200 basis points of easing since June 2024 leaves it in a structurally more dovish position. Even after a 25 basis point hike at its June 11 meeting — prompted by Middle East-driven inflationary pressures — the policy differential continues to favour sterling-denominated assets on a carry basis.

Weak eurozone growth, persistently high energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainty add further headwinds for the euro.

As long as EUR/GBP remains capped below the 100-day MA, the path of least resistance points toward the June 2025 low of 0.8408. For bulls to regain control, a decisive, high-volume close above the moving average — followed by a successful retest as support — would be required before a recovery toward 0.8729 becomes credible.
EUR/GBP daily chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)