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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Nov 12 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - Germany's Great Expectations Are Bearish EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:25 AM
  • Germany's ZEW survey -2.1 in Nov. Way above -13 f/c and prior -22.8

  • Current conditions barely changed. All the improvement based on hope

  • German investor sentiment jumps on positive trade developments nAPN076FB2

  • Hope supports risk appetite, does not change interest rates

  • Stronger risk appetite and current rates will weigh EUR/USD nL2N27S077

  • ECB QE restarted Nov 1. EUR/USD likely to reach daily cloud base 1.1064







EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts Exiting Could Be Great News For Bears
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:05 AM

EUR/USD bears remain in control, as the technical outlook is negative and a possible reduction of shorts provides space for a deeper drop in coming sessions.
In the week ended Nov.
5, IMM data showed the futures market was short by an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of 7.6 billion euros, up from 6.7 billion euros the previous week.
However, EBS flow data since Nov.
5 shows some of those shorts may have been exited, reducing the chances of a near-term short squeeze because there are fewer buy stops that might be triggered.
The near-term scope is for further losses to test the daily cloud base, now at 1.0967, in coming sessions.
Traders should be mindful that a strong defence of option barriers at 1.1000 is likely.
A break and daily close above the daily cloud top, now at 1.1064, would shift the bias back to the upside.
Related nL2N27O086


IMM Positions Chart: Click here

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - 1-Month Options Get Boost From Dec Fed And ECB Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 03:50 AM
  • EUR/USD 1-month option expiry now Dec. 12, gets Fed and ECB rate meetings

  • Implied vol marked higher to 4.8 from 4.3 (record low is 4.15)

  • Gains highlight the added event risk volatility premium

  • However, any further gains likley limited with spot pinned to tight range

  • Owners need realised volatility to outperform implied, to offset decay costs

  • Realised volatility measures are now trading below implieds

  • Break below big 1.10 barriers can help underpin implied vol nL2N27R04L


EURUSD 1mth vol: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - ZEW's Expected Improvement Won't Alter EUR/USD Direction
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:40 AM
  • Germany's November ZEW data seen -13 from -22.8

  • Big improvement but still negative, won't alter current rates/ECB policy

  • ECB APP began Nov 1, so yet to really be felt in FX or bonds

  • Better data will support risk. Risk-on EUR/USD bet is short for carry

  • Data should add weight on EUR/USD within current 1.09-1.12 bounds

  • Daily cloud top @ 1.1064 weighs. Today's range so far below 55-DMA 1.1039














EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Loss Of Bullish Momentum Weakens Push To 1.2900
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:00 AM
  • Gain consolidation just below Mon's 1.2896 peak and below 10-21-DMAs

  • 14-day momentum remains negative and RSI struggles to confirm the bounce

  • While below the 1.2916 weekly cloud base the risk is skewed to the downside

  • A fade in the 1.2890s with a tight stop above 1.2920 could work

  • Below 1.2769 and all bull bets are off and the 200DMA 1.2725 is back in play

  • We await stronger signals but might consider a short on a failure at 1.2900









GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Shorts May Seek Cover As Trendline Triggers Bounce
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 12:20 AM
  • AUD/USD recoils after dip to 0.6832, likely spooking shorts

  • Bounce away from trendline support at 0.6826 will deter sellers

  • Bearish momentum running out as general FX volatility ebbs

  • AUD/USD has chance to reclaim losses on close above 20 DMA 0.6860

  • Wavering uncertainty over US-China trade deal ahead of Trump speech

  • Due to speak at Economic Club of New York later today nL4N27S0N3











Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Edges Lower In Quiet Asian Session
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 10:00 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1033 and traded in a 1.1036/37 range

  • Heading into the afternoon it is trading round the session low

  • Option related bids ahead of 1.1000 holding for now, but bounces are shallow

  • Support formed at 1.1015 with more support at 61.8 of 1.0879/1.1180 @ 1.0994

  • German ZEW out later today and the uS Treasury market reopens after holiday

  • Trump speaks later today and market will react to comments on US-China talks

  • EUR/USD likely to remain under pressure while 10-day M at 1.1087 caps






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Bounce Positive, But Bulls Better Off Waiting A Bit
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 09:15 PM
  • GBP/USD pulled away from Bollinger downtrend channel on Mon

  • Turn away from 1.2830 will deter bearish bets, but bulls should wait

  • 20 DMA resistance currently capping at 1.2872, may thwart rally

  • Daily closing above 1.2930 would activate uptrend channel

  • Brexit Party opting not to contest against Tories helps nL2N27S01Y

  • Affirmative victory for PM Johnson should cue temporary GBP spike










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Slightly Better Bid After Better NAB Survey
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 07:45 PM
  • Closely watched NAB Business survey showed some improvement in October nS9N25P000

  • AUD/USD slightly better bid - touching 0.6853 after trading 0.6845 earlier

  • Range trading likely, as market looks ahead to Trump speech later today

  • The state of US-China trade talks having biggest impact on AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD clinging to support @ 0.6848 with resistance at Monday's 0.6865 high






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Trend Is Up, But Plenty Of Resistance Into 109.50
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 06:20 PM
  • Flat after closing -0.2%, AUD/JPY -0.35%, on US/China trade deal uncertainty

  • No tier one data, so risk to remain the driving factor for USD/JPY today

  • Primary trend is higher, but resilient resistance in the 109.35/50 area

  • 109.32/36 weekly cloud base and 61.8% 2019 fall also held on the close

  • 109.48/49 capped late last week - 108.70/109.21 range looks viable in Asia

  • Close below rising 108.14 Kijun line needed to end the topside bias

  • 108.89 NY low then 108.69 Tenkan line are initial support


jpy nov 12 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Shorts Tread Water Near The 21-DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 01:15 PM
  • Pair down slightly on day as risk sentiment sours a bit nL2N27R0G0

  • US-Sino trade, Hong Kong tensions & AU yield slip weigh on AUD/USD

  • Early NY equity slide adds weight, consolidation near 21-DMA persists

  • Falling RSIs & daily cloud top drop give techs a bearish tint

  • Fed speakers, Powell testimony could weigh if the rhetoric buoys US$

  • Comments from RBA's Bullock (Tues.), Debelle (Wed.) could impact as well

  • Investors to eye AU Oct jobs to see if economy's gentle turn is advancing









chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Heavy Inside Thursday's 108.65-9.49 Trend High Day Range
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 01:15 PM
  • USD/JPY holds 108.88, 38.2% of November's 107.89-9.48 rise

  • Thursday's 108.65/9.49 low/high are near-term breakout points

  • Overbought bearish RSI divergences, weekly Cloud above weigh

  • US-China trade deal doubts, failed 109.37 Fibo breakout weigh

  • Hong Kong unrest adding to risk-off, haven JPY bid nL2N27R0EJ

  • Partly replaced by risk-on UK election news, lifts JPY crosses

  • Burden of proof remains on bulls, trade negotiators nL2N27R0KL

  • US CPI, Powell testimony & retail sales Wed-Fri next key events

  • Week's biggest expiry is $1.86bln of 107.90s Thur by key Nov. 1 low

  • Uptrend across Aug, Oct & Nov lows is at 108.36 on Tuesday

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Brexit Party Smoothes Sterling's Path Higher
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 10:25 AM

GBP/USD rose off Friday's 4-week low at 1.2769 rising to 1.2896 in early NY and potentially faces an easier path higher after the Brexit Party's conciliatory gesture toward the Conservatives reduced the risk of a hung parliament after the Dec.
12 elections nL8N27R45V.
It also presents hurdles to a surprise Labour victory nL2N27R0E3, which further diminishes market jitters over post-election policy direction.
The possibility of a hung parliament had been exerting downward pressure on the pound.
For now, GBP/USD bulls remain in control as the pair remains above 1.2604, the 50% Fib of October's 1.2196-1.3012.
Bulls need a rise above the thin weekly cloud, which spans 1.2916-41, and above Oct. 21's 1.3012 to reassert dominance.
Though drastically reduced IMM short positioning nL2N27O1RU1096742NNET -- with the net spec short down from August's -102k to current levels at -29k -- may inhibit future GBP/USD gains.
Reduced UK political and Brexit tensions, and the BoE likely on hold until H2 2020 BOEWATCH has tipped control to the sterling bulls. Any reversal of that sterling-positive development wouldawaken bears for a test of recent trend lows.


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Respects Friday's Low Amid Risk Aversion
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 06:15 AM
  • AUD/USD traded a modest 16 pip range through the European am, 0.6849-0.6865

  • The base of that range is a pip shy of Friday's low/100-day moving average

  • Friday's drop to 0.6848 was spurred by mixed signals on China-US trade talks

  • See: nL2N27O0Q7. 0.6848 is the lowest level for AUD/USD since Oct 29

  • 0.6906 was Friday's high, before dovish RBA SoMP was published nL3N27O1DX

  • Hang Seng closed down 2.6% today on protests, trade uncertainty nAZN18JJ00

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Labour's Loss Could Be Sterling's Gain
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 05:50 AM

Short-term technicals suggest GBP/USD's downside could be explored further.
On the weekly chart, price rejection at the ichimoku cloud last week is damaging but support is close by (55WMA at 1.2745) and trader indecision points to a more balanced market.
Brexit takes a back seat while the UK election campaign holds market attention.
If the Conservative Party increases its poll lead over Labour it could underpin sterling and as such the softer bias currently seen may provide better levels to enter longs nL2N27R065.
Weekly price action, consolidating in a 1.2769-1.3012 range, could be viewed as a flag or bullish continuation pattern.
The recent 1.3012 high and a 76.4% Fibonacci retrace level at 1.3045, off the 1.3380 to 1.1959 drop, provide additional hurdles above the weekly cloud base at 1.2916.
Sterling could draw some strength from news that Labour has stumbled badly in the election race nNRAa67jhi.
A YouGov poll published Friday suggested support for Labour has faded significantly and a Sunday Times poll shows the Tories extending their lead over Labour; 39% to 26%, Labour losing 1 percentage point nL8N27P0WK



GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Record Low Volatility Will Take EUR/USD Down Too
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 04:10 AM
  • EUR/USD benchmark option vol is perched just above the record low

  • A decline in activity is very likely to occur before the end of the year

  • Push below 4 vols for one-month options looks likely and will weigh EUR/USD

  • The quieter it becomes the greater the influence of interest rates

  • Interest rate gap is still 2% in favour dollar and Fed now on hold

  • EUR/USD on course for daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0973
















EUR/USD daily Click here

EUR/USD one month vol Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bears Clear Out A Key Fibo, Another Now Exposed
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 03:05 AM
  • EUR/USD closed under 1.1030 Fibo, 50% of the 1.0879 to 1.1180 October rise

  • That weakens the underlying bearish market structure, unlocks another Fibo

  • 1.0994 Fibo is 61.8% retrace of the same 1.0879-1.1180 gain

  • A daily close below 1.0994 would increase the underlying negative bias

  • Thick cloud, which spans the 1.0973-1.1064 region, remains a risk to bears

  • Bears rack up wins, but aren't out of the woods nL2N27O086, nL2N27O06Q

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Big EUR/USD Amid FX Option Expiries - Nov 11
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 02:05 AM
  • Expiries 10-am New York cut, but light Monday due to U.S holiday

  • EUR/USD: 1.1045-60 (1-BLN)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6880 (406M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3200 (250M)

  • USD/JPY: 108.90-109.00 (650M), 109.65-75 (400M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 02:36 AM
GBP/USD - Firmer, But Friday's Break Still Targets 1.2700
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 10 - 10:15 PM
  • +0.1% - base of a 1.2787/1.2808 range, morning flurry - 1.2780 NY close

  • Moody's UK spending plans, Brexit paralysis put rating at risk nL8N27O7AA

  • UK employers' hiring plans back to the 2019 average - CIPD nL8N27O4DZ

  • Mixed weekend election polls but Conservatives retain a solid lead

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs crest/fall - negative setup

  • Close below 1.2790 range base Friday opens door to 1.2700, 38.2% Oct rise

  • NY 1.2769 low and earlier Asian 1.2808 high initial support-resistance

gbp2 nov 11 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Sits In Tight Range Ahead Of Option Bids
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 10 - 10:05 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.1016/26 through the Asian morning

  • There was a risk-off tone in Asia, as US-China trade deal optimism wanes

  • Mixed signals from concerned parties creating uncertainty nL2N27O0Q7

  • AXJ equity index down 0.90% leading EUR/JPY 0.15% lower

  • EUR/USD option related bids around 1.1000 underpinning price for now

  • Support at 61.8 of 1.0879/1.1180 move at 1.0994

  • Resistance at 1.1090/1.1100 where 10 & 21-day MAs converge






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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