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Apr 01 - 12:55 PM

CIBC: US ISM Manufacturing Index Marking The First Re-entry Into Expansionary Territory Since October 2022

By eFXdata  —  Apr 01 - 10:38 AM

Synopsis:

CIBC reviews the latest ISM Manufacturing Index for March, which shows a notable improvement, marking the first re-entry into expansionary territory since October 2022. The rise in the index is driven by increases in production and new orders, suggesting a potential upturn in US manufacturing sentiment.

Key Points:

  • March ISM Manufacturing Index Results: The index rose to 50.3, surpassing expectations of 48.3 and the previous month's reading of 47.8, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector.

  • Key Contributors: The uplift was primarily due to gains in production and new orders, both of which registered above the 50 threshold, denoting expansion. Additionally, the prices paid index continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month.

  • Export Orders: For the second month in a row, export orders remained in expansionary territory, contributing to the overall positive outlook.

  • Cautious Optimism: Despite the positive shift in sentiment indicated by the ISM index, CIBC expresses caution. They note the disparity between the optimistic ISM readings and the more tepid hard manufacturing data, questioning the magnitude of the anticipated recovery.

  • Future Outlook: A more robust and sustained manufacturing recovery is expected once global central banks initiate easing cycles, thereby boosting global demand.

Conclusion:

CIBC's analysis of the March ISM Manufacturing Index highlights a promising rebound in US manufacturing sentiment. However, caution is advised due to inconsistencies between ISM optimism and hard data trends. A significant recovery in manufacturing is anticipated to align with global monetary easing, fostering enhanced global demand.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary

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