ING suggests that the British pound (GBP) may continue to exhibit strength, based on several factors:
Strong Economic Indicators: The recent release of wage and inflation numbers was higher than market expectations. This pushed the Sonia curve (Sterling Overnight Index Average, which reflects bank-to-bank interest rates for sterling overnight funding) to indicate rates of 6.0% for the first time in a month.
Inflation Factors: ING's UK economist highlights that the unexpected increase in service inflation came majorly from rents. However, such a factor might not be viewed as "persistent" by the Bank of England. This distinction is important as "persistent" inflation would be more concerning and would warrant a more sustained monetary response.
Rate Hikes: A 25 basis points (bp) hike in September seems almost certain in ING's view, given the recent data. However, they believe the decision for a rate move in November is still up in the air. This uncertainty is based on signs of easing price pressures in other sectors of the UK economy.
Sustained GBP Strength: Despite these uncertainties, the British pound is experiencing a surge post the repricing of economic data. ING believes this momentum is unlikely to die down quickly, especially since there's a lack of upcoming significant market-moving data or statements from the Bank of England speakers.
In essence, ING anticipates the GBP to continue its strong performance in the near term, bolstered by recent economic data and the market's perception of upcoming monetary policy moves.