• USD/JPY dropped from 159.57 to 158.96, so far on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Yen firms as BOJ holds in split vote, kicking off big week for central banks

• The BOJ left its policy rate as is at 0.75% but the vote was 6-3

• The market viewed this as hawkish, hold vote influenced by Econ Minister Kiuchi

• Note USD/JPY failed on four occasions in April to register a close below 158.49 Fibo

• A bear trap is set when a mkt breaks below a tech level but then reverses and is usually bullish

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

• Fin Min Katayama: Japan ready '24 hours' to act on currency swings

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)