• In April EUR/USD closes over 100-MMA for 1st time since 2021

• The 100-MMA is currently 1.1205- Mar range 1.1065-1.1418 - last 1.1305

• EUR/USD also close above 1.1271 which is 61.8% 2021-202 plunge

• Traders have held bullish bets in excess of $10bln throughout May

• Close over 1.1271 likely to encourage traders to add to longs in June

• Overbought conditions are unwinding, allowing for bigger gains

• Close below 1.1271 would cast doubt, under 1.1200 may spur unwind 1.10 test

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EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)