Synopsis:

ANZ expects fresh gold buying near USD 3,200/oz, despite recent retracement from the USD 3,400/oz high. While easing geopolitical tensions and higher US rate expectations have triggered short-term selling, structural uncertainties and stagflation risks still underpin a bullish long-term outlook.

Key Points:

• Recent Retreat: Gold has pulled back amid profit-taking, following a finalized US-UK trade deal and a reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts (now ~70–80bp vs. 100bp earlier).

• Weaker Haven Demand: Geopolitical de-escalation and signs of potential trade deals are weighing on haven flows. ETF holdings fell 5t month-to-date, and speculative unwinding is ongoing.

• China Market Activity: A surge in trading volumes on China’s gold exchanges suggests increased retail and institutional profit booking.

• Structural Drivers Remain: Despite near-term headwinds, ANZ sees persistent policy uncertainty, stagflation risks, and non-reversal of tariffs as supportive of gold’s longer-term value.

• Technical Outlook: Pullback toward USD 3,200/oz is seen as key support, where new buying is expected to emerge.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a constructive stance on gold, viewing the current pullback as a buying opportunity near USD 3,200/oz. While short-term volatility may persist, the macro backdrop still favors gold amid unresolved trade risks and inflationary pressures.