RBA's Three-Scenario Analysis Reveals Potential for a Steeper Rate Hike Path - Credit Agricole 📈🇦🇺💰
Credit Agricole reports on the RBA's three-scenario analysis, which suggests potential for a steeper rate hike path. The central bank has deliberated a steady climb of 25bp at each meeting to 4.8% by August, or even a more aggressive front-loaded path reaching the same by May. However, recent actions show a deviation from these scenarios.
RBA Willing to Tolerate Slower Inflation Return for Employment Gains 🎯🇦🇺📉
Credit Agricole argues that the RBA, guided by Governor Philip Lowe, shows a willingness to tolerate a slower return of inflation to its target. This approach seems to prioritize preserving post-pandemic employment gains over a rapid inflation normalization.
UST Yields and Iron Ore Prices Major Restraints for AUD 💵🇦🇺🔧
According to Credit Agricole, despite the RBA's potential tightening bias, U.S. Treasury yields and struggling iron ore prices continue to be the dominant factors restraining the Australian Dollar (AUD). The bank sees Chinese demand concerns as a significant hurdle for iron ore prices, impacting the AUD's performance.