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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 21 - 07:15 PM
  • Steady after closing up just 0.05% with the U.S. dollar 0.05% lower

  • No significant tier 1 data or RBA events, so risk appetite and the USD lead

  • 10% surge in Nvidia after the close in NY may underpin risk appetite in Asia

  • Charts; an inside day with a touch higher close leaves charts intact

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies climb - mixed signals show little short-term bias

  • Close above the tested 0.6537 21-DMA targets 0.6619 upper 21-day Bolli band

  • Wednesday's 0.6572 Sydney high and NY 0.6534 low initial support, resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 21 - 06:55 PM
  • Steady after closing +0.15% with an inside day and the USD off 0.05%

  • Yields spreads tightened, 10yr gilt +6bp 4.107%, 10yr UST +4bp 4.319%

  • UK record monthly budget surplus - interesting to see upcoming tax cuts

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-DMA's coil as the 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Neutral daily momentum studies - setup shows no significant bias

  • 1.2603 London low and this week's 1.2579 base are initial supports

  • This week's 1.2668 high then last week's 1.2691 top are the first resistance

  • Close above under pressure 1.2637 21-DMA targets 1.2741 upper 21-day Bolli

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Feb 21 - 05:55 PM
  • AUD/USD consolidates in a 0.6530-0.6580 s/term range, awaits fresh catalysts

  • Upside capped by higher U.S. yields; 10-yr yield hovers near 2 1/2 mth high

  • Fed Jan meeting minutes caution against cutting rates too soon

  • Sliding iron ore prices weigh; Dalian iron ore drops to a near 4-month low

  • RBA's cautiously hawkish stance on rates underpins AUD

  • China stimulus optimism, positive risk sentiment, carry trade demand support

  • Support 0.6525-30, 0.6500-05, resistance 0.6570-80; Wed range 0.6572-0.6534

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 04:00 PM

Synopsis:

ING anticipates the upcoming UK budget on March 6 could introduce significant fiscal stimulus and incentives affecting the GBP's performance. With the Resolution Foundation reporting a £23bn fiscal headroom, the possibility of stimulus is seen as a key factor potentially supporting sterling, despite recent dovish remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey regarding inflation and rate cuts. Moreover, the budget could present unexpected elements regarding incentives for UK pension funds and efforts to enhance London's appeal for major financial listings, potentially impacting sterling's valuation.

Key Insights:

  • Fiscal Stimulus Possibility: The UK government's potential to deploy £23bn in fiscal stimulus during the March 6 budget presents a backdrop that could support or influence GBP movements.
  • Impact of BoE's Dovish Signals: Despite Governor Bailey's indication that the BoE might not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting rates—a stance that softened UK gilt yields—anticipated fiscal measures could counterbalance bearish pressures on sterling.
  • Incentives for UK Asset Investment: The budget may also explore new incentives aimed at encouraging pension funds to invest in UK assets and enhance London's financial market allure, presenting unexpected variables for GBP dynamics.

Conclusion:

The March 6 UK budget emerges as a critical event for the GBP, with potential fiscal stimulus and strategic incentives for domestic asset investment serving as wild cards. While the BoE's dovish tilt has introduced caution, the budget's outcome could significantly influence sterling's trajectory, highlighting the complex interplay between fiscal policy, central banking actions, and currency markets.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Feb 21 - 03:15 PM
  • USD/JPY has better price action, with its low by the rising tenkan

  • Also a bullish engulfing candle heading toward the close

  • But 150.40 high was capped by down TL off Feb's 150.88 peak at 150.42

  • Close above there would point to Feb highs

  • And if those are closed above, possible test of 2023/22's 151.92/94 peaks

  • Looking for a dip to buy between the tenkan and Tues's 149.695 low

  • But a close below the tenkan would weaken the outlook

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Feb 21 - 02:45 PM

The dollar index fell 0.9%, as Treasury yields rose more slowly than European yields, though faster than steady JGB yields, while waning Fed, ECB and BoE rate cut pricing tended to weigh on risk-acceptance before the mid-afternoon release of Fed minutes and AI-leader Nvidia's report due after the close.

The minutes were mostly a rehash of the last meeting's statement and subsequent Fed comments, not extending earlier Treasury yield driven dollar gains.

USD/JPY rose 0.13% as relatively static JGB yields left the yen vulnerable against higher yielding currencies.

Two-year Treasury, bund and Gilts yields rose 3.9bps, 7.8bps and 7.53bps, respectively, versus flat JGB yields.

Treasury yields were boosted by heavy IG issuance and a poor 20-year auction.
But also after Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin on Wednesday conceded that the above-forecast January inflation data made the Fed's job harder, and governor Bowman said now was clearly not the time for lower rates.

Later, ECB's Pierre Wunsch stuck to his line that with wage pressures high and labor markets tight, rate policy could have to stay tight for longer than expected.

Further steps by China to stabilize its stock and property markets stabilized USD/CNY and got the CSI300 back up to 2022's initial panic lows with a 1.35% gain, likely helping euro zone stocks amid German recession and the government's lowered 2024 GDP estimate to 0.2% from 1.3% previously.

Regardless, 2-year bund yields broke out above 50% of its Sep-Dec slide at 2.84% with an eye toward the 61.8% and 200-day MA at 2.96%.
That as the first ECB rate cut is fully priced for June, with 99bps by year-end.

That compares to a first Fed cut almost fully priced for June and just 89bps by year-end.
But it might take more hawkish, top-tier U.S. data, such as core PCE on Feb.
29 and the ISMs and jobs reports in March to better confirm Fed rate expectations and the dollar's path.

EUR/USD's recovery from February's lows was helped by a 5bp tightening of 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads, but gains have largely been capped by the falling 30-day MA, last at 1.0829.

USD/JPY's rebound from tenkan support by Wednesday's lows amid rising Treasury yields ran into the downtrend line from February's highs at 150.42.
The rise was also aided by Japan downgrading its 2024 economic outlook, maybe limiting BoJ policy normalization.

There's also a case to be made that a repeat of MoF FX intervention to support the yen ahead of 2022/23's 32-year peaks is much weaker than it was in 2022.
But the drop in Treasury-JGB yields from this year and last year's peaks on eventual further Fed-BoJ rates convergence may need more hawkish U.S. data to take on 2022/23's 151.94/92 peaks.

Sterling fell 0.6%, capped this week by the 30-day MA, and not helped by rising Gilts-Treasury yields spreads, as BoE dove Swati Dhingra again noted the costs that delayed rate cuts carry.
Not to mention less risk-on support for the risk-sensitive pound.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 21 - 02:05 PM

Corrects typo in headline

  • NY opened near 1.0800 after 1.0790 hit on EBS in Europe's morning

  • Pair then rallied to 1.0820 on US$ sales, EUR/JPY rally to 162.575 on EBS

  • Rally stalled short of the 200-DMA, pair then neared flat on the session

  • US yields US2YT=RR turned positive, stocks ESv1, gold XAU= turned down

  • Muted reaction from EUR/USD to minutes of the Fed's January 30-31 meeting

  • Techs are mixed; daily RSI rising & pair above 10-DMA but below the 200-DMA

  • EZ Feb. HCOB PMIs, US weekly & continuing claims are data risks Thurs.

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

ANZ compares the trajectory of NZD/USD in 2024 to the performance of GBP/USD in 2023, suggesting a challenging path ahead for the New Zealand dollar. According to ANZ, potential rate hikes or pauses by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are unlikely to bolster the NZD/USD significantly, drawing parallels to the British pound's struggle amidst economic stagnation despite the Bank of England's (BoE) rate adjustments in 2023.

Key Insights:

  • Limited Currency Support from RBNZ Moves: Anticipated actions by the RBNZ, whether rate hikes or maintaining current policy, are not expected to provide substantial or lasting support to NZD/USD.
  • Comparative Analysis with GBP/USD: ANZ draws a comparison to GBP/USD's situation in 2023, where the BoE's rate hikes amidst a faltering economy did not yield positive outcomes for the pound, suggesting a similar scenario for the NZD in 2024.
  • Challenging Economic Environment: The analogy highlights the difficulties currencies face in gaining strength from central bank policy actions when the underlying economy is not robust.

Conclusion:

ANZ's analysis positions NZD/USD for a challenging year ahead, akin to the struggles experienced by GBP/USD in 2023. Despite potential rate adjustments by the RBNZ, the broader economic context in New Zealand is expected to limit any positive momentum for the NZD, underscoring the complex relationship between central bank policies, economic health, and currency performance.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Feb 21 - 11:15 AM
  • EUR/GBP continues to press on the Feb highs (0.8571-78)

  • Daily close above Feb peak needed to add to rebound case

  • Cross remains somewhat rangebound in the current narrative vacuum

  • Euro Area/UK flash PMIs near-term event risk

  • Resistance: 0.8583 (55DMA), 0.8616 (200DMA)

  • Support: 0.8542 (200HMA), 0.8500 (psychological)

  • Positioning is a growing headwind for GBP/USD nL2N3F40NG

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 11:00 AM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole anticipates potential for profit-taking on USD long positions in the wake of the FOMC minutes release from the January meeting. With market expectations having adjusted to delay rate cut forecasts to post-summer, the minutes are expected to align with current market sentiments, potentially maintaining USD positions unless unexpected inflation discussions prompt shifts in fixed income markets.

Key Insights:

  • FOMC Minutes Focus: The upcoming release of the January FOMC meeting minutes is poised to attract significant attention from FX investors, particularly regarding discussions on the policy outlook and the anticipated commencement of the Fed's easing cycle.
  • Market Expectations and Rate Cuts: The substantial shift in market expectations towards later rate cuts might find support in the minutes, aligning with the belief that cuts are unlikely before summer. Notably, any insights into the Fed's inflation outlook could influence market dynamics, given recent surprises in US inflation data.
  • USD Positioning and Fixed Income Market Reaction: The immediate impact on the USD will likely correlate with reactions in US fixed income markets. Should the minutes not prompt significant movements in rates, the current environment may foster conditions ripe for profit-taking on existing USD long positions.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole suggests that today's FOMC minutes release could serve as a catalyst for some recalibration in USD market positions, especially if the document confirms market expectations for a delayed start to the Fed's easing cycle and offers no new inflation outlook that would disrupt current fixed income market trends. This scenario could encourage profit-taking among investors with extended USD longs, underlining the intricate connection between Fed communication, market expectations, and currency valuations.

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 21 - 11:10 AM

EUR/USD turned positive Wednesday after if fell below the 21-DMA and longs are encouraged by existing bullish conditions, but will need U.S. data for additional help.

German-U.S.
2-year yield spreads US2DE2=RR tightened Wednesday and neared short-term resistance in the -180 area.
A break of that resistance could help underpin a EUR/USD rally.

Positioning could be encouraging to longs as well.
The latest CFTC data indicated net-long euro positions are at their lowest since October 2022 which implies fewer sellers booking profits in the event EUR/USD's rally extends.

Technicals highlight upside risks.
EUR/USD rallied above the down trend line off December's high and the pair is holding above the 10- and 21-DMAs.
A monthly doji candle forming in February may be a sign the latest down trend is over.

EUR/USD investors now await U.S. weekly claims, January PCE and February payroll data.
Results indicating slower job growth and lower than expected inflation should drive U.S. yields and the dollar down.

EUR/USD may then make a run for key resistance near the 1.1000 area.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 10:00 AM

Synopsis:

MUFG anticipates a cautious approach from the Bank of Canada (BoC) regarding signaling imminent rate cuts at the upcoming policy meeting on March 6. Despite softer CPI data leading market participants to price in potential BoC rate cuts by June, with a more than 50:50 probability for an April cut, MUFG outlines a framework that supports the view of Canada's economic indicators justifying a shift towards less restrictive monetary policy.

Key Insights:

  • BoC Policy Outlook: MUFG expects the BoC to maintain caution and possibly delay signaling imminent rate cuts, focusing on assessing further economic data.
  • Market Pricing for Rate Cuts: Recent softer CPI data has led to adjustments in market expectations, with significant pricing in for BoC rate cuts by June and a notable probability for an April cut.
  • Economic Rationale for Rate Adjustments: Given Canada's below-potential growth and slowing inflation, there appears to be a strengthening case for the BoC to adjust rates towards less restrictiveness. Notably, inflation metrics, excluding mortgage interest rate costs influenced by past BoC hikes, align with the BoC's 2.0% target.
  • USD/CAD Outlook: These developments suggest an increased likelihood for USD/CAD to maintain levels above the 200-day moving average support, around 1.3480, in the near term.

Conclusion:

MUFG's analysis underscores the balancing act the BoC faces in signaling future monetary policy adjustments amidst evolving economic indicators. Market anticipation for rate cuts reflects broader expectations for a policy shift, which, combined with underlying economic fundamentals, suggests a cautious upward trajectory for USD/CAD in the near term. This perspective highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and BoC communications in shaping future rate expectations and currency market dynamics.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 09:09 AM

Synopsis:

BofA's analysis suggests the global economy and FX markets are prone to fluctuations, with recent sizable growth upgrades in the US and positive data surprises potentially causing an asymmetrical response in G10 currencies. Despite current market levels aligning closely with major forecasts, further USD depreciation against G10 currencies is expected by the end of Q2. BofA recommends strategies that leverage carry frameworks while avoiding long positions in CHF or JPY due to their low yield characteristics. Instead, BofA favors high beta currencies, particularly GBP, as a strong candidate for long positions.

Key Insights:

  • Global Economy and G10 FX: BofA notes that while FX markets and the global economy do not move linearly, recent growth upgrades in the US present risks of an uneven response among G10 currencies.
  • USD Depreciation Forecast: Expectations for further USD depreciation against G10 currencies by the end of Q2 are maintained, supported by a carry framework strategy.
  • Strategic Recommendations: BofA advises against long positions in low-yielding currencies like CHF or JPY, suggesting high beta currencies as preferable options.
  • GBP as Preferred Currency: The GBP is highlighted as a favorable choice for long positions, not just due to its typical April seasonality but also in anticipation of the UK's Spring Budget on March 6th. The budget is expected to stimulate the economy and support the Bank of England's (BoE) strategy of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. Furthermore, signs that UK Plc remains under-owned present an opportunity to capitalize on GBP strength.

Conclusion:

BofA's G10 FX outlook suggests a nuanced approach to currency trading in the coming months, emphasizing the potential for further USD depreciation against select high beta currencies. The GBP, in particular, stands out as a compelling option for long positions, bolstered by positive economic stimuli from the upcoming UK budget and the broader under-ownership of UK assets. This strategic perspective offers investors a roadmap for navigating the complexities of the G10 FX markets amidst evolving global economic conditions.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 21 - 06:40 AM
  • EUR/USD has traded tight ranges for a long time

  • No trade outside 1.0448-1.1276 - little beyond 1.05-11

  • The vast bulk of flows conducted inside 1.05-10

  • Volatility has dropped toward 2-year lows

  • The influence of hedging related to options will grow

  • Due to hedging, bigger options expiries will become more magnetic

  • Will to speculate will decrease- evident this year

  • Net long position slashed and may be eradicated

  • Scarcity of safe currencies is a growing problem nL5N3F628M

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 21 - 06:15 AM
  • AUD/USD has respected its 0.6548-0.6572 Asia range since the European open

  • 0.6572 is seven pips shy of Tuesday's peak (highest level since Feb 2)

  • Tuesday's rise was influenced by cautiously hawkish RBA and yuan gains

  • Australia Q4 annual pay growth 4.2% vs 4.1% forecast, highest since 2009

  • Iron ore falls further (iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner)

  • Australia loses out as Chinese tourists flock to Southeast Asia nL2N3F60A1

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Feb 21 - 05:40 AM
  • 1.2603 is low water-mark for cable since Tuesday's one-week high of 1.2668

  • 1.2603 approximates to mid-point of recent 1.2518-1.2691 range

  • Tuesday's low was 1.2580 (before rise to 1.2668). 1.2551 was Friday's low

  • UK budget in two weeks (March 6); government keeps door open to tax cuts

  • MPC dove Dhingra is due to speak to Market News at 1400 GMT nL8N3ER4GJ

  • UK February flash PMIs due Thursday at 0930 GMT; services PMI f/c at 54.1

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 21 - 05:30 AM
  • Dollar likely to climb against yen as Japan woes mount nL2N3F60MO

  • Japan's government have downgraded its view on the economy nL3N3F520S

  • USD/JPY has seen a 149.86-150.18 range, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

  • Very bullish due to sustained trading above broken 149.17 Fibo nL2N3F60HB

  • 149.17 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the (Nov-Dec) 151.92-140.27 (EBS) drop

  • USD/JPY and EUR/JPY currency pairs have a strong positive correlation

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 21 - 02:55 AM
  • USD/JPY has scope for bigger gains to test 2023/2022 151.92/94 peaks

  • That after remaining above broken 149.17 Fibo for nine days in a row

  • 149.17 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the (Nov-Dec) 151.92-140.27 (EBS) drop

  • Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, reinforcing the overall bull market

  • As does the positive alignment of the daily tenkan and kijun lines

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 162.05-162.27 range, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Bid at 149.80. Previous update nL2N3F50LT

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 21 - 02:35 AM
  • A EUR/USD daily "cloud twist", circa 1.0930 on March 1, could attract spot

  • The cloud twist is when the cloud extremes, senkou spans A and B, cross

  • Last week spot failed under the 1.0712 Fibo, setting up a "bear trap"

  • 1.0712 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.0448-1.1139 (Oct to Dec) EBS rise

  • A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses

  • Those that are bearish should note a bear trap is usually a bullish sign

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL2N3F50K5

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 21 - 02:25 AM
  • Tuesday rebound (1.2668) failed to challenge the daily cloud top, 1.2678

  • Subsequent pullback into a 1.2620 close leaves the recent range intact

  • Small bid early Wed but risk of a drift back to the 200DMA, 1.2567

  • Fourteen day momentum is negative but RSI is rising

  • Tight weekly ranges still a theme: monthly chart bearish

  • Weekly cloud top 1.2660 and 50-WMA at 1.2541

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 20 - 04:30 PM

Synopsis:

ING provides an outlook on the USD's performance in the near term, analyzing the latest positioning data from the CFTC and market sentiment towards the dollar. The analysis points to a nuanced view of the USD against different currency groups and anticipates its short-term trajectory.

Key Insights:

  • Market Positioning: The CFTC's recent positioning data highlights a divergence in market sentiment towards the USD, showing it to be generally oversold against emerging market (EM) currencies and overbought against G10 currencies among speculators. This reflects a preference for carry-attractive currencies and suggests that the dollar is perceived as too pricey for consistent short positions against lower-yielding developed currencies.
  • Consensus View and USD Dynamics: Despite the prevailing consensus that US data will eventually weaken, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates and thus lead to a USD decline, the market often reacts by selling USD rallies. This consensus view, however, has yet to fully materialize.
  • Near-Term Outlook: With US data continuing to show strength, ING favors a strong USD stance in the near term. Nevertheless, this strength is likely to contribute to range-bound trading rather than a sustained directional move. ING suggests that, in DXY terms, the 104/105 level may act as a trading range in the short run.

Conclusion:

ING's analysis points towards a complex market positioning for the USD, with short-term strength anticipated due to robust US economic data. However, the broader consensus on a future decline in the USD, driven by expected Fed rate cuts, creates a backdrop for range-bound trading within specified levels.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 20 - 10:20 PM
  • +0.1% near the top of a 1.2621-1.2633 range with moderate D3 flow

  • UK businesses are more optimistic this year, BCG survey shows

  • UK employers offer smaller pay rises at the start of 2024, XpertHR

  • Surveys support BoE's Bailey 'comfortable' that markets expect rate cuts

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-DMA's coil as the 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Neutral daily momentum studies - setup shows no significant bias

  • Close above 1.2640 21-DMA would suggest another test of the 1.2800 range top

  • This week's 1.2579 low, then last week's 1.2536 base, are initial supports

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 20 - 10:20 PM
  • Trades up 0.2% at the top of an at times busy 0.6548-0.6566 range on D3

  • AUD edged up after the Wage Price Index data, which was strong, as expected

  • RBAWATCH prices 20.15pt cuts in August from 16.8pt at Friday's close

  • Asia mixed - Nikkei -0.45%, AsiaxJP +0.35%, SSEC +1.5%, firm commodities

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages coil, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies climb - mixed signals show little short-term bias

  • Close above the tested 0.6539 21-DMA targets 0.6619 upper 21-day Bolli band

  • Tuesday's 0.6521 Sydney low and 0.6579 NY high initial support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 20 - 07:50 PM
  • Wage Price Index as expected +0.9 q/q, poll +0.9% +4.2 Y/Y vs +4.1% forecast

  • AUD/USD trades at the top of a busy 0.6548-0.6557 range so far in Asia

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages coil, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies climb - mixed signals show little short-term bias

  • Close above the tested 0.6539 21-DMA targets 0.6617 upper 21-day Bolli band

  • Tuesday's 0.6521 Sydney low and 0.6579 NY high initial support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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