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Jul 28 - 10:55 AM

USD: What The IMF Data Tells Us About The USD Trend? - BofA

By eFXdata  —  Jul 28 - 09:34 AM

Bank of America Global Research the recent batch of IMF COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves).

"The dollar's strong performance over the past year is emblematic of a cyclically trending market where structural factors have largely taken a backseat. Among those factors has been reserve diversification dynamics. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) data show that the strong appreciation trend in USD has not been driven by structural diversification flows, with the USD share in FX reserves staying around record lows in Q1," BofA notes. 

"Secondly, heavy interventions by Asian central banks (USD selling vs national currency) may not have not been rebalanced by subsequent USD buying versus the portfolio. Timing the inflection from a cyclically-focused market towards a structurally-focused one is not an exact science, but we opine that a turn in the global rate-tightening cycle will be the catalyst," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research

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