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Goldman Sachs discusses JPY outlook and prefers being short JPY against high-carry EM currencies.
"We continue to see the risks as skewed to the upside in USD/JPY as the incoming US data have remained resilient, the odds of Fed hikes have gone up, and domestic fiscal risks remain. A sharp reversal lower would likely require a rise in recession risk or shift towards a more hawkish BOJ, both of which continue to feel less imminent," GS notes.
"The potential for additional interventions still leaves outright USD/JPY longs less attractive though, despite the broader backdrop arguing for a weaker Yen. For that reason, we have preferred being short JPY against high-carry EM currencies," GS adds.