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Sep 25 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Recovers Lost Ground, Eyes Further Gains
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 07:30 PM
  • GBP/USD opens 0.4% higher as cable outperforms on Brexit news
  • May rules out early election nL8N1WB681, Labour passes motion nS8N1S005F
  • The move takes GBP/USD back above 100 DMA, turns tech signals positive
  • Next resistance the s/t 61.8 Fibo at 1.3198, then recent highs at 1.3295
  • Initial support is at 10 & 100 DMAs at 1.3142/45, then recent lows at 1.3041
  • Fresh Brexit headlines, the Fed decision and remarks today's main drivers

GBP daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Opens Unchanged As Market Awaits The Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opens around 0.7250 - where it opened yesterday's session
  • Quiet range trading overnight as the market positions itself for the FOMC
  • Market split on whether Fed hike will be a hawkish or dovish hike
  • Range trading likely to continue with eye on AUD/JPY flows out of Tokyo
  • Support at the 10-day MA at 0.7233 and 38.2 0f 0.7085/0.7304 at 0.7220
  • Resistance around 0.7305 where 55-day MA and Friday's high converge

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 05:00 PM
EUR/USD: In Range Until Break Higher 'Slowly, Step By Step' - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 10:10 AM

Societe Generale Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a neutral view with an upside bias for the rest of the year. 

"Clearly, the next big event will come in the dissection of the FOMC statement, tomorrow..

EUR/USD is likely to find 1.18 are hard nut to crack, but the bottom of the range has moved up to 1.15 and absent negative shocks from the Italian budget, or from the economic data, we still think we're in this range until we break higher (slowly, step by step)," SocGen argues.


Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Sep 25 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Breakout Suggests Higher Prices
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 12:55 PM
  • USD/JPY through neckline resistance, tech objective 9 figs higher
  • US data continues strong, consumer confidence best since Sep 2000
  • Fed expected hawkish tomorrow, 4th 2018 rate hike 80% priced
  • Event risk for FX is USD/CNH through 7.00, JPY move suggests rising prob
  • Ratcheting of trade confrontations set stage for next USD leg up

USDJPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Trapped Between Brexit Narratives
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 12:55 PM
  • Cable drifting, trapped between competing Brexit narratives, coin toss
  • Quiet pre-Fed NorAm session
  • May hopeful but says no Brexit deal better than bad deal
  • Labour vows to vote against, open to 2nd referendum
  • Uncertainty creates fresh downside vulnerabilities, stops below 1.3050

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: Risk-Reward Favors EUR/USD Upside Amid Italian And French Budgets - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 09:26 AM

Barclays Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and adopts and flags scope for upside in the near-term amid the release of the Italian and French budgets.

"We believe that risk-reward favors EUR/USD upside, given limited risks from the Italian and French budgets, and expected improvements in inflation prints. Italy is due to release an update to its medium-term economic and fiscal this week (by 27 September), and draft the 2019 budget by 15 October...," Barclays argues. 

"French budget will likely contain higher than previously projected public deficit and debt; however the focus will be on the government's strategic plan to reduce public spending and structural deficit....A more constructive plan from the French budget will likely support the single currency," Barclays adds. 


Barclays Research/Market Commentary
Sep 25 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Perky EUR/USD Making Most Of Dollar Troubles
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 10:30 AM

EUR/USD is making the most of the small crisis of confidence hindering the dollar, which remains weighed down by political and positioning issues.
EUR/USD is threatening to push back above
1.1800 after shrugging off euro-bearish comments by ECB's chief economist Praet, who attempted to damp speculation that Draghi's yesterday had hinted at a quicker normalization than previously expected. After spiking below 1.1740 on Praet -- a moved helped by German-U.S. yield spreads widening further in the greenback's favor -- EUR/USD quickly reversed its slide on the back of broad dollar sales. The price action betrayed the troubles sapping dollar bulls' vigor, including ongoing U.S. political issues in the form of Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, uncertainty surrounding Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein and November's U.S. Also in EUR/USD's favor, typically contrarian retail traders are nearing net short in the pair while also adding to net-short euro positions versus most major currencies. EUR/USD's rise is likely to be a grind, however, as it approaches big 1.1850/55 resistance.
A break should intensify the rally and target the 200-DMA.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 11:00 AM
EUR/USD: A Break Of 1.18 To Target 1.20; EUR/CHF: More Room To Run - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 08:45 AM

TD Research discusses the current market conditions and notes that the major currencies are sitting in a holding pattern awaiting the next impetus.

"We think it is the Fed, though the recent spike in oil has raised some eyebrows. The next move in oil matters insofar as it offers a good reason to keep the selloff in global rates moving, especially as global output gaps are closing. Higher oil prices would support the ECB's confidence that inflation is headed in the right direction,
" TD adds. 

This is more likely to benefit the ROW than the USD, given there is more room for a deeper selloff in the like of bunds. The 10y is up nearly 20bp over the past 3m.

The EUR has tracked bunds more closely than USTs, which also point to 1.20 on a break of 1.18. We also think EURCHF has room to run higher as CHF looks quite rich at current levels that also favors downside in CHFJPY," TD adds. 

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Sep 25 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Respects Asia Range, With Copper And Trade In Focus
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 06:35 AM
  • Modest 20 pip range for AUD/USD during the European am, 0.7237-0.7257
  • 0.7236-0.7263 was Asia range, when lower copper prices weighed on AUD
  • LME copper is currently down 1.2 pct having been down 2.2 pct in Asia
  • U.S/China trade war blamed for copper price drop nL4N1WB0J4
  • China says U.S. putting 'knife to its neck', hard to proceed on trade
  • See: nL4N1WB0VJ. Waning trade concerns boosted copper and AUD last week

AUDUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - Profit-Taking May Hang Heavy On EUR/USD In Short-Term
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 05:10 AM
  • EUR/USD rallies 1.1724-1.1815 day of Draghi's vigorous inflation comment
  • 10-year spread narrowed yesterday to 257bp from Friday's trend wide nr 261bp
  • Yet EUR/USD tops and trades a lower 1.1774-1.1731 range today
  • Pattern may reflect the bias of spec positions, long ahead Fed tomorrow
  • Profit-taking may therefore continue to weigh on EUR/USD near-term
  • Confluence of 21/100-DMAs 1.1660-61 looks critical for still bullish techs

eurusd Click here

US/German 10-y rate spread Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Long Tail On USD/JPY Candlestick Puts 2018 Peak In Play
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 04:05 AM
  • Long tail on Mon's candle line increases scope for further gains
  • Long tails are normally a sign that the downside is being rejected
  • Scope is for growing for an eventual test of the 2018 113.40 peak
  • We have raised our bid to 112.30 as this is ahead of Monday's 112.27 low
  • 112.24 Fibo, a 23.6% of 109.78 to 113.00 (August-September) rise, supports
  • Note the "cloud twist" in lower 111s today, means outside chance of a fall

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD - On The Back-Foot Before BoE MPC's Vlieghe Speaks
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 03:15 AM
  • Cable down to 1.3095 ahead of speech from BoE MPC member Vlieghe at 0840GMT
  • Vlieghe was relatively dovish in newspaper interview last week nL3N1W4531
  • 1.3095 is low water-mark since Monday's M&A news-assisted high of 1.3167
  • Sky shares up 8.6 pct Monday after Comcast cash offer Saturday nL8N1WA1EG
  • 1.3041 was Friday's low after May fronted up to EU over Brexit nL8N1W71CG
  • Starmer: Labour open to second EU vote with option of remaining nL9N1VT021

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Sting Taken Out Of Monday's Adjustment
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 25 - 02:35 AM
  • Our 1.3105 short play survived Monday's corrective rally
  • The 1.3175 stop intact and price opens Tuesday on a soft note
  • Back at the 10DMA, 1.3122, and back below 100DMA, 1.3148
  • Daily cloud top the challenge for bears. Top comes in at 1.3054
  • Initial supp. 30HMA lower Bolli at 1.3070 then 1.3156 Monday low
  • Weeklies remain positive but stalling at 21 and 100WMAs

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Higher US Yields And Lower Copper Weighs
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 10:20 PM
  • AUD/USD at session low below 0.7245 as copper falling in Asia
  • NY Copper down over 1.5% since NY close and US 10 year yield up 2 BPs
  • AUD/USD support at 10-day MA 0.7225 and 38.2 of 0.7085/0.7304 at 0.7220
  • Both copper and AUD/USD rallied hard last week when trade war concerns waned
  • US/China trade tensions back on the radar and both could be vulnerable now

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 25 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 11:02 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Further EUR strength to 1.1850 seems likely.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (21 Sep, spot at 1.1775). As highlighted, the recent strength in EUR has scope to extend towards the next resistance at 1.1850. EUR briefly touched a high of 1.1815 during NY hours yesterday and despite the relatively rapid and sharp pull-back from the top, the positive underlying tone remains intact. However, short-term indicators are unwinding from overbought conditions and this could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. As long as the ‘key support’ at 1.1690 is intact (level remains unchanged as previously), we continue to see chance for EUR to move to 1.1850.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

In our last update on Friday (21 Sep, spot at 1.3270), we expected GBP to extend its gains to the July’s peak of 1.3363. GBP subsequently staged an outsized decline that easily took out the 1.3170 ‘key support’ (low of 1.3041 on Friday). While there is no change to the neutral outlook, the break of the ‘key support’ indicates that GBP has likely made a short-term top at 1.3295 last week. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade sideways to slightly lower from here, likely within a broad 1.3020/1.3220 range.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Risk of a stronger recovery has increased.

We have held the same view since last Thursday (20 Sep, spot at 0.7260) wherein the “risk of a stronger recovery in AUD has increased”. AUD subsequently hit a high of 0.7305 on Friday (21 Sep) before easing off. While upward pressure has waned somewhat with the pull-back from 0.7305, there is still room for the current recovery to extend to 0.7360. That said, any advance is expected to be slow and grinding. On the downside, only a break of 0.7220 (no change in ‘key support’ level) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Diminished odds for further NZD strength.

The relatively large decline of -0.65% yesterday (NY close of 0.6641) came as a surprise. However, as indicated last Friday (21 Sep, spot at 0.6685), only a break of the 0.6620 ‘key support’ would suggest that a short-term top is in place. Until then, we continue to see chance for further NZD strength to 0.6730 even though the odds for such a move have diminished.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): A break above the July’s peak near 113.15 would not be surprising.

We have held the same view since last Wednesday (19 Sep, spot at 112.30) wherein upward momentum for USD has improved and the “risk is clearly on the upside”. That said, we have doubts on whether USD can maintain a toehold above the major 112.80 resistance (see last Friday’s update). USD rebounded strongly after dipping to a low of 112.26 yesterday (24 Sep) and the advance from the low is gaining momentum. From here, the focus has shifted to the July’s peak near 113.15 and in view of the improved momentum, a break above this level would not be surprising. However, there is another strong resistance at 113.45 and this level may not yield so easily. All in, we continue to hold a ‘positive’ stance as long as the ‘key support’ at 112.15 is intact (level previously at 111.75).

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Sep 25 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Bulls May Survive The Fed Test
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 10:10 PM

Recent EUR/USD price action has given bulls a little hope, but they need a close above 1.1780 to really perk up - and the Fed meeting this week may not be a major barrier.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's comments Monday highlighting a "relatively vigorous" pick-up in underlying inflation and building wage pressures certainly woke a few bulls up.
But he then dashed their hopes by adding that the inflation recovery depends on rates staying low through next summer nL8N1WA3VY.
Clearly the market is also nervous about getting too long of the euro ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday, but that may well turn into a 'buy the event' type reaction for the EUR/USD.
Given that the market has already baked in two more rate hikes in 2018 and the Fed's 'dot plots' currently indicate four more in 2019-2020 , the Fed may well disappoint the hawks .
With short-term moving averages and momentum studies supporting further EUR/USD gains, a close above the 38.2 Fibo of the 2018 range at 1.1780 will target a move to the 50 percent retracement at 1.1928 and the 200-day MA at 1.1946.

EUR daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 24 - 11:00 PM
USD/JPY - Hits 113.00, Still Capped There, Stops Above
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 09:20 PM

  • Gotobi Tokyo fix demand sends USD/JPY to 113.00, doesn't break above however
  • 113.00 offers still, stops above, 113.18 trend high July 19, stops 113.20+
  • Tokyo demand sated for now but bias still up, high US yields supportive
  • Treasury 10s indicated 3.090%, 3.098% high yesterday, Nikkei buoyant
  • Hourly Ichi tenkan 112.82 below, kijun 112.71, ascending 55-HMA 112.63

USD/JPY: Click here

Yield on US Treasury 10s: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 24 - 09:48 PM
USD/JPY - Rally Back On Track On Rising US Yields
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 07:25 PM
  • USD/JPY finds buyers on dips as U.S. 2-year yield trades at 10 year high
  • Monday decline in early Asia and NYK held above previous 112.15 August peak
  • Leads to technical buying, on course for test of 113.18-113.24 resistance
  • Area marks the July high, the 200-WMA and 61.8% Fibo of 2016-18 drop
  • Resistance likely to hold ahead of Fed Wed; supports now @ 112.45, 112.15
  • Japan back from long weekend, BOJ minutes released, Kuroda speaks in Osaka

jpy: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 24 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Opens Unchanged After Outside Day
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 06:35 PM
  • EUR/USD hit fresh 3-month @ 1.1815 high on Draghi hawkish inflation comments
  • Rally faded through US session and EUR/USD opens Asia unchanged
  • EUR/USD likely to consolidate in Asia as Japan and China return from holiday
  • EUR/USD resistance @ June 14 high @ 1.1853; sellers camped ahead of 1.1820
  • Support at yestrday's 1.1724 low, which was former resistance
  • Break below 1.1720 targets the 10-day MA at 1.1698

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Sep 24 - 05:00 PM
USD: Fed To Hike This Week; A Pocket Of USD Strength Left To Push EUR/USD Into 1.15 This Fall - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 24 - 03:00 PM

Danske Research discusses its expectations around the FOMC September policy decision on Wednesday.

"In line with everyone else, we expect the Fed to raise the target range by 25bp to 2.00- 2.25% at next week’s meeting. We do not expect it to be necessary for the Fed to send any new important signals to the markets.

We believe the most important parts of the statement will remain unchanged and even if the sentence ‘monetary policy is accommodative’ is removed or changed, it should not matter much, in our view, as it would just reflect reality. With respect to the dots, the Fed will most likely still signal another hike in December...," Danske projects.

"With the Fed still keen to continue the process of moving rates back towards ‘neutral’, it remains too early in our view for the FX market to price the Fed going on hold. This should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again during the course of the autumn.

But, as the ECB is set to signal a first hike coming up at a time where the Fed could be looking to go on hold, a EUR/USD uptick will start to materialise. Indeed, it is when easing stops – rather than when hikes occur - that currency appreciation is seen, and vice versa," Danske argues.

Danske Research/Market Commentary
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