AUD/USD has plunged almost 40% from its 2011 post-GFC peak, with this month's 0.6678 trend low virtually completing the 161.8% Fibo-projected base at 0.6649 derived from 2011's 1.1081-0.9388 range.
A major base near this month's low only makes macros sense if the worst of the U.S.-China trade war has passed.
Despite glimmers of hope, there's been nothing official from either side to reinforce the notion that the new round of tariffs set for this Sunday won't lead to the further tariff increases already announced nL3N25M235.
If, by chance, a long-term base has been made, the minimum 23.6% retracement target at 0.7717 would align closely with repeated range highs from March 2016 to March 17.
For today, the focus is on resistance from the tumbling 21-DMA at 0.6781 by the 0.6780 session high, and the daily tenkan support at 0.6744.
Despite the Aug. 7 and 26 dives below January's 0.6715 flash-crash low, prices have yet to close below there.
A daily range above the 21-DMA would target 0.6832, June's low and 38.2% of the July-August drop.
A close below 0.6715 would put the 0.6678/49 supports back in play.
RBA's DeBelle is hoping for more AUD weakness, given limited space for further rate cuts nS9N23B01Y.