Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs sees this week’s June US jobs report as a potential catalyst for renewed Dollar weakness, especially if it shows more visible labour market deterioration that reinforces a dovish tilt from the Fed. With geopolitical risks easing and fiscal/tariff noise fading, conventional macro drivers like employment data will likely take centre stage for FX markets.

Key Points:

• Rate Differentials Still Matter:
  • The Dollar has already been drifting lower despite wide rate differentials, suggesting flows have been shifting.
  • Recently, the move down in US front-end rates has gained traction again as safe-haven demand for USD wanes.

• Geopolitical and Political Risks Fading:
  • Middle East tensions have relaxed rapidly, diminishing the USD’s safe-haven appeal.
  • Domestic US risks, like the section 899 provision and reciprocal tariffs, look less immediate, reducing fiscal overhang.

• Macro Focus Shifts to Labour Market:
  • Goldman sees a weaker NFP print or signs of a softer labour market as a clear next trigger for the Dollar to weaken further, especially against EUR and JPY.
  • Such a move would reinforce expectations that the Fed will turn more dovish, adding to downside USD pressure.

• Broader USD Path:
  • Absent a sharp labour data miss, the base case remains a gradual USD grind lower, supporting EM carry and a stronger CNY, with spillover effects for Asia FX.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs highlights that the June US jobs report could be the spark for the next leg of Dollar weakness, with EUR and JPY likely to benefit the most. If the data surprise dovishly, expect renewed USD selling. Otherwise, a steady USD downtrend remains their base case as macro factors—not geopolitical or fiscal shocks—drive the next FX moves.