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TDUX
Oct 01 - 02:55 PM
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Danske: We Expect Above-Consensus NFP at +100k in Septmber; We Stay Bullish on USD

By eFXdata  —  Oct 01 - 01:00 PM

Danske Research previews tomorrow's US September jobs report.

"Broad USD remained on a strong footing yesterday with EUR/USD trading lower especially towards the European evening. Yesterday's move looked unusual in light of the steepening of the UST curve, modest rebound in term premia and inflation data from both Europe and the US that at face value should have had the opposite effect. This could reflect a shift in positioning towards USD longs, which remain strong portfolio diversifiers during risk-off sessions like yesterday, or fiscal concerns in EUR (not least with OAT-Bund spread still widening).

But it could also mean that the market is more prone towards a tactical correction towards weaker USD, in case oil prices suddenly tick lower, or if tomorrow's US Jobs Report surprises to the soft side," Danske notes.

"The latter is not our base case though, as we continue to forecast NFP at +100k, and remain even more confident after the stronger-than-expected ADP reading yesterday (+90k, cons. +75k). We remain structurally bullish on USD," Danske adds.

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary

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