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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Jan 20 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Broader Uptrend Intact But Bulls Need 200 DMA To Go
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 19 - 09:50 PM
  • AUD/USD recovers after gap down, inspired by new 6-mth lows in USD/CNY

  • Stocks in Asia mostly higher after fresh Wall St records Fri

  • AUD/USD tentatively evades Bollinger downtrend channel at 0.6876

  • Will uphold broader positive trendline if it ends above 0.6866

  • But bulls need 200 DMA resistance 0.6885 to break for clarity

  • China holds off easing Loan Prime Rate, delaying stimulus nAZN0032O6














Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 19 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Bearish Setup Just Above Key Support - Strikes Cap
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 19 - 07:05 PM
  • Touch firmer, after a low key weekend for market moving news

  • Only mover is oil up 1.6% on Libyan supply threats nL8N29O058

  • Disparate outlook for EU and US growth weighed on Friday nL1N29M11G

  • Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower - negative setup

  • Huge support ay 1.1080/85, 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce and Jan double bottom

  • Sustained 1.1080 break a bearish signal, next stop 1.1042 76.4% Nov-Dec rise

  • 1.1100/05 1.5BLN strikes cap and are a potential magnet in Asia

eur jan 20 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 19 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD - Opens The Week With A Bearish Tone As USD In Demand
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 19 - 03:10 PM
  • AUD/USD opens the week looking a bit vulnerable after Friday's 0.32% fall

  • Lack of market moving news on the weekend likely to result in quiet start nL1N29N06Y

  • AUD/USD moving lower despite buoyant risk assets and EM strength

  • Broad USD strength and dovish RBA expectations weighing on sentiment

  • AUD/USD support at 0.6840/50 where a triple bottom and 100-day MA converge

  • Resistance at 0.6885 where the 10-day and 200-day MAs are found






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD: In S/T Consolidation Phase Holding A Minor Base; Upside Likely To Resume - Credit Suisse
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 03:00 PM

Credit Suisse discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and maintains a bullish bias in the near-term.

"AUDUSD is in a short-term consolidation phase following the construction of a minor base and we look for the uptrend to resume from here, with resistance initially at .6908, then .6917/20. Above here would see the upswing continue with next resistance seen at .6943, where we would expect to see fresh selling at first. Removal of here reinforce the upmove, with resistance next at .6995, above which would clear the way for a move to .7020/24 and then a renewed challenge of the December 2019 high at .7032. Removal of here in due course would expose .7057, ahead of the July 2019 high and 78.6% retracement of the April/October 2018 fall at .7082/92," CS notes. 

"Support moves initially to .6885/82, then .6870. Beneath here would see support at .6852/38, which is likely to hold once again if reached. It’s worth noting though that a break below here would complete a major ‘head and shoulders’ top to turn the trend lower," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Came Too Far, Too Fast To Get Past Key Resistance
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 01:30 PM
  • New 110.30 USD/JPY trend high today, but profit-taking caps

  • Good China and bulk of US data du jour limit the pullback

  • Treasury yields and stocks gains not enough to maintain gains

  • Pair's two-week 107.65-110.30 surge left daily RSIs overbought

  • And upper 21-day Bolli's close to 76.4% of '19 drop at 110.46/53

  • Long weekend in US is also likely prompting broader booksquaring

  • M-T outlook made bullish by this week's reversal above dn TL from '18

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY, And Stocks, May Get Lift From 2020 Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 01:05 PM

If President Trump's two expected nominees to the Fed board are confirmed, and the voting records of non-board voters this year persist, the already accommodative U.S. central bank may be even more inclined to backstop the economy and markets, which would add support to stocks and positively correlated USD/JPY.
At least one of the two Fed board nominees, Waller, is seen likely getting the nod given his credentials and lack of controversial comments regarding policy.
He's also expected to err on the side of accommodative policy nL1N29L254.
Shelton may have a harder time getting through nFWN24X1KK, but if she did, it's assumed she would favor easing.
Moreover, the rotation of regional Fed presidents into and out of voting status may also hue somewhat more toward easing nL1N28E1E8, though it's clear most policymakers would rather not have to adjust rates much if at all this year.
The hope is the economy can heat up a bit and allow inflation and growth expectations to normalize higher and closer to the Fed's target, or even past it to make up for repeated shortfalls.
With little sign of inflation rebounding, though, the upshot might be just more support for financial asset inflation and a higher USD/JPY.


Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 01:24 PM
JPY: Carry Trade Until Optimism Exhausted; Where To Target? - BofA
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 11:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the JPY outlook and maintains a tactical bearish bias targeting USD/JPY through 112 in Q1 before topping out and reversing towards 103 by year-end. 

"We are tactically bearish on JPY as a funding currency against cyclical currencies. However, we think it will face a downside limit when positioning and valuation in risk assets become stretched as risk-reward should shift from shorting JPY as a carry trade to buying JPY as a risk-off hedge," BofA notes. 

"We are bearish on JPY against cyclical currencies until optimism is exhausted and becomes euphoric. We would shift our stance to buying JPY and vol as a hedge if valuation and positioning reach extremes, especially in light of US election risk. 

We expect USD/JPY to peak out at 110-112 in 1Q20 and head lower to 103 by year-end. We assume a range of 100-113 for 2020," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
Jan 17 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts Face Big Obstacles In Battle For Control
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 09:55 AM

EUR/USD's rally from the Jan. 10 low is close to being completely erased, but shorts still have some work to do to gain greater control.
December's very upbeat U.S. housing starts nLNSHCEGGW, which hit a 13-year high, helped EUR/USD shorts gain traction.
The data drove Treasury yields higher and eurodollar and fed funds futures prices lower.
The rate moves widened German-U.S.
yield spreads further in favor of the dollar and lowered the probability for Fed rate cuts FEDWATCH.
The data also led to broad U.S. dollar buying, which helped pull EUR/USD below 1.1100.
EUR/USD shorts are probing a slew of support in the 1.1060-1.1105 zone.
Technical supports from the daily cloud top and base, 55-DMA, head-and-shoulder neckline, trend line off October's low and the 50% Fib of 1.0879-1.1240 all sit in that zone.
Key daily lows from Jan. 10 and Dec. 20 also reside there.
EUR/USD's fall back below the 10-, 21- and 200-DMAs as well as falling daily and monthly RSIs suggest shorts have a good chance of breaking below the support zone.
Should that support give, way recent EUR/USD longs are likely to throw in the towel and exit their positions while shorts' confidence grows.
A test of October's low cannot be ruled out should the support break.








chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 11:00 AM
EUR: Next Week's ECB Not A Big Market Mover; May Cap Downside In EUR/USD, But Won't Add Upside - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 09:15 AM

Danske Research discusses its expectations for next week's ECB policy meeting. 

"The ECB meeting next week is set to focus on the strategic review and not on new policy messages. Media reported that ECB governing council members received documents concerning the strategic review, which will officially be launched next week. We expect the ECB to confirm its easing bias and acknowledge its downside risk assessment, but also to note the fading downside risks. We do not expect big market movements on the meeting," Danske projects. 

"We do not view the possible change in communication as a game changer for spot EUR/USD....Our 3M view continues to be steady at 1.11 but this shift in communication does somewhat limit downside risk to the forecast. The most notable upside risk to EUR/USD continues to be a substantial fiscal easing agenda making its way forward in the euro area but that remains somewhat elusive as of now," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 09:48 AM
USD/JPY: Consolidating Above 110; A Good Sign For Further Gains Over Coming Days & Weeks - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 08:28 AM

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains a bullish bias in the near-term.

"The USD/JPY rate looks to be consolidating above the 110.00 level – a good sign for potential further gains ahead. The yen is the second worst performing G10 currency in January mainly due to continued evidence of a pick-up in US economic data and the general favourable financial market conditions. 

While we are sceptical of the economic benefit of the Phase 1 trade deal signed, the economic data released by China today does at least over the near-term reinforce the positive sentiment in the financial markets," MUFG notes. 

"These better conditions for now will likely fuel capital outflows from Japan, reinforcing yen weakness. The weekly flow data from the BoJ indicates this has begun... We see scope for USD/JPY to continue grinding higher over the coming days and weeks, especially if the EU and the US can avoid a near-term escalation in trade conflict," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Outlook Bleak As Option Vols Extend Record Lows
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 06:15 AM

Implied volatility dictates the price of FX options, which thrive on actual volatility, but they are extending record lows across the entire one-month to one-year term structure.
That means the perceived risk of actual EUR/USD volatility is the lowest it's ever been.
Implied option volitility hit record lows in Q4 2019, which was no surprise after the tightest yearly spot range on record.
Extending those losses suggests dealers still see no sign of an imminent break-out.
Even historically volatile events, such as central bank meetings, are failing to attract any interest from option players, who are loathe to waste premium too far before an event nL1N29L05V.
However, at these levels, the amount of spot movement needed to cover premiums and reward holders is very small, so steeper declines are likely to be limited.
One-month straddles at 3.8 vols have a break-even of just 100 pips now! On the directional front, risk reversals still see EUR/USD gains more likely than losses, with three-month EUR call premium to puts at a one-year high nL1N29M05E.
Massive expiries a near term volatility killer nL1N29M056


EURUSD 1-2wk vol ECB and FED: Click here

EURUSD 1-3-12-month vol: Click here

EURUSD risk reversals: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 07:24 AM
NZD/USD - COMMENT-December Highs In Sight If Kiwi Plays The Growth Card
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 05:00 AM

New Zealand growth could benefit if tourists shy away from Australia's bushfire damage, and AUD/NZD losses suggest the market expects a boost in growth.
The Kiwi looks to be pulling in support from a number of areas, and as the technical picture improves a run back to the Dec.
31 high of 0.6755 can't be ruled out.
A strong hammer candle signal Wednesday set off a small stampeded by the bulls.
A 1.2% gain to a 0.6664 Thursday high took the heat out of the 0.6755 to 0.6586 early January drop, and despite trading just off the recovery high the bid is holding early Friday.
Looking ahead, the fundamental backdrop could underpin further NZD gains.
Upbeat Chinese industrial data, in-line GDP and a hint of more economic stimulus nB9N28C01MnL4N29M0E9 can only be good news for the Kiwi.
With China-U.S.
trade negotiations focused on phase 2, the near-term outlook favours further NZD gains.



AUD/NZD Daily Chart: Click here

NZD/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Could Soar If Stops Clustered Above Fibo Are Triggered
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 04:05 AM
  • Dollar hits 8-mth high on yen nL4N29M0ZQ, see tight 110.16-110.30 range

  • USD/JPY bulls increasingly likely to charge at a major Fibo nL1N29M05L

  • 110.53 Fibo is a 76.4% of the 112.40 to 104.46 multi-month (EBS) drop

  • There is talk of buy stops clustered above the 110.53 Fibo

  • Bidding interest tipped at and above 110.00 from a mix of players

  • EUR/JPY's 30/60-day log correlations with USD/JPY are +0.62/+0.64

Weekly Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD's Upside Protection Cost Reach Highest In A Year
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 02:40 AM
  • EUR/USD risk reversals continue to point to an eventual topside extension

  • Firm implied vol premium for EUR calls vs puts (right to buy vs sell EUR)

  • 3-month expiry sees that premium reach 0.5 vols - highest since Jan 2018

  • Suggests extended spot gains would lift implied vols to reward owners

  • However, could be some time coming, broader implied volatility record lows

  • Even ECB and Fed meetings fail to attract vol gains/demand nL1N29L05V

  • Massive 10-billion expiries help contain Friday nL1N29M056



EURUSD risk reversals: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - 10-Billion EUR/USD Amid Massive G10 FX Option Expiries - Jan 17
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 17 - 02:10 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1090-1.1105 (2.6BLN), 1.1120-25 (2BLN), 1.1135-45 (1.1BLN),

  • 1.1150 (2.1BLN), 1.1165-75 (1BLN), 1.1200 (3BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9605 (780M), 0.9700 (330M), 0.9770-85 (1BLN)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2945-55 (1BLN), 1.2975 (460M), 1.3075 (400M),

  • 1.3095-1.3100(450M), 1.3130 (350M), 1.3145-60 (720M), 1.3175-85 (550M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8500 (1.2BLN)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6855 (650M), 0.6900 (310M), 0.6925 (1.3BLN), 0.6970 (690M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3000 (433M), 1.3030-40 (1.1BLN), 1.3150-55 (800M)

  • USD/JPY: 110.00 (1BLN), 110.15 (500M), 110.40-50 (600M), 111.00 (815M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Steady In Asia After Upside Failure Thursday
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 16 - 10:05 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.1135/42 through a very quiet Asian morning

  • Upward momentum waning after EUR/USD was rejected ahead of 1.1180

  • Market couldn't ignore the solid US data and USD broadly rebounded

  • EUR/USD resistance at 61.8 of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181 validated

  • EUR/USD clinging to 1.1135/40 where the 10, 21 & 200-day MAs converge

  • Close below 1.1130 targets resistance formed at 1.1085

  • EZ current account and inflation data is out later today






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 17 - 12:12 AM
GBP/USD - Heavy Cross Flow, As Key Retail Sales Approach
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 16 - 10:00 PM
  • Flat with occasional interest in Asia, trading a 1.3065/1.3081 range

  • EUR/GBP saw some heavy flows, and trades at the top of a 0.8515/0.8522 range

  • Poll doesn't expect BoE to cut on Jan 30, rate bias is lower nL8N29K21K

  • Retail sales main event in UK, to gauge consumer response to the election

  • Charts, momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs 21 day Bolli bands show no bias

  • 1.3081, 38.2% of Dec-Jan fall key tested, but no sustained break as yet

  • Break would be a positive signal, next resistance at 1.3120 50% Dec/Jan fall

  • 1.3075 250M, 1.3095 200M and 1.3130 260M are the close strikes


ukd jan 17 Click here

gbp jan 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 16 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Little Reaction To Solid China Data
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 16 - 09:15 PM
  • AUD/USD barely moving after a slew of China data including Q4 GDP

  • GDP as expected at +60.0% Y/Y, but Dec retail sales and IP slightly better nAZN002XP7nAZN002XS0

  • AUD/USD traded down to 0.6884 earlier and is currently around 0.6895

  • The solid China data and risk-on mood in markets should underpin AUD

  • Support at triple bottom and 100-day MA between 0.6840/50

  • Resistance at the 50% retracement of 0.7032/0.6849 at 0.6940






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 16 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - Strikes Contain, 1.1181 Shapes Up As Key Resistance
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 16 - 07:35 PM
  • Flat after closing off 0.1%, amid modest USD strength & firmer UST yields

  • EU's trade commissioner Hogan - US trade talks start well nL1N29L20O

  • At familiar levels, as 5, 10 and 21 DMAs coil and momentum studies conflict

  • Little short term bias suggests range trading, rather than a trending market

  • 1.1080/85 2020 low and 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce is pivotal support

  • 1.1181, 61.8% Dec-Jan fall key resistance, break target 1.1240 Dec high

  • 1.1090-1.1100 2BLN, 1.1120-25 1.6BLN, 1.1150/65 2.2BLN strikes contain

eur jan 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 16 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - Firmer Below Significant Resistance, Retail Sales Key
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 16 - 06:15 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.3% on optimism into retail sales in London

  • Data key guide to consumer response to the election, see chart for polls

  • Confidence surveys since the election have generally been positive

  • Charts, momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs 21 day Bolli bands show no bias

  • 1.3081, 38.2% of Dec-Jan fall key tested, but no sustained break as yet

  • Break would be a positive signal, next resistance at 1.3120 50% Dec/Jan fall

  • NY afternoon 1.3033-1.3083 range is initial support/resistance

  • 1.3075 250M, 1.3095 200M and 1.3130 260M are the close strikes

gbp jan 17 Click here

ukd jan 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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