Oct 20 (Reuters) - Tokyo players see a USD/JPY cap in place ahead of 160.00. Despite this view, the pair refuses to fall by much, causing some frustration for yen bulls.

After falls from 163.99 to 155.20 between July 23-August 3 and 160.39 to 152.89 between September 2-9, USD/JPY upside has been limited to a high of 159.03 on September 24.

FX intervention in late July and official rhetoric following the early September G20 meetings have instilled the view that monetary authorities in Japan and the US could again intervene to buy yen on more USD/JPY strength , .

Fading expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike next week, and ongoing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike come December favour the yen. To wit, Totan Research/ICAP shows the probability of a December BOJ rate hike at 76% , , .

Japanese exporters, for their part, have recently been aggressively selling US dollars on upticks towards 159.00 for the current fiscal year and maybe beyond, countering still strong importer demand .

All said, the US dollar remains very bid as a haven amidst great geopolitical uncertainties. The Middle East war, the high crude oil prices (denominated in US dollars), prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict, and widespread unrest in France have reinforced the dollar's shine.

Recent data on IMM CTAs showed a very large increase in US dollar holdings, though many question whether this is sustainable , .

Although the path of least resistance for USD/JPY may be down, moves towards 155 and even 150 may take longer than thought.
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Ewen Chew.)