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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Jun 19 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 19 - 12:00 AM

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW EUR is likely to trade sideways to slightly lower, expected to be between 1.1165 and 1.1220. Hint of possible rate cut by Draghi sent EUR plummeting to 1.1179. Despite the rapid drop, downward momentum has not improved by much and the risk of a sustained decline from here is not high. That said, it is too early to expect a recovery. EUR is more likely to trade sideways to slightly lower from here, expected to be between 1.1165/1.1220 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Bias for is for EUR to move lower and test 1.1150. Despite relatively dovish remarks by Draghi, the decline in EUR was surprisingly subdued. The price action was more or less in line with our narrative from Monday (17 Jun, spot at 1.1215) wherein we expect EUR to trade with a “downside bias” and “test 1.1150”. EUR dropped to 1.1179 after Draghi’s remarks yesterday before recovering slightly. Downward momentum has increased albeit not by much and EUR is still expected to test 1.1150. A dip below this level is not ruled out but for now, the prospect for a break of the critical 1.1100 level is not high. On the upside, only a move above 1.1260 (level previously at 1.1290) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW Robust rebound in GBP has scope to test 1.2600. Yesterday, we were of the view that “GBP is likely to weaken but oversold conditions could limit decline to 1.2500”. While our expectation was not wrong as GBP touched 1.2507, the subsequent robust rebound from the low came as a surprise. Downward pressure has dissipated and 1.2507 is deemed as a short-term bottom and this level is not expected to come into the picture for now. From here, the recovery has scope to extend and test 1.2600 but a sustained advance above this level is not expected (next resistance is at 1.2640). On the downside, 1.2535 is a strong support ahead of the 1.2507 low.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP has moved into ‘negative phase’, could weaken to 1.2440. Our ‘upgrade’ of the downside narrative for GBP from “to trade with a downside bias” to “has moved into a ‘negative phase’” yesterday appears to be premature as GBP not only failed to break the 1.2500 support (overnight low of 1.2507) but also staged a robust rebound. In other words, the price action has dented the build-up in downward momentum and the odds for further GBP weakness to 1.2440 have diminished. However, only a break of 1.2640 (no change in ‘key resistance’ level) would indicate that the current ‘negative phase’ has ended. Meanwhile, GBP could trade sideways for a few days but it could not afford to consolidate for too long as it would lead to a rapid loss in momentum. To look at it another way, unless GBP can crack 1.2500 within the next few days, the risk of a move above the ‘key resistance’ would increase quickly.

NZD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW NZD could move higher but any advance is viewed as part of a higher 0.6515/0.6550 range. Expectation for NZD to trade sideways yesterday was incorrect as it rose and hit an overnight high of 0.6538. The advance is running ahead of itself and while NZD could move above the overnight high, any strength is viewed as part of a higher 0.6515/0.6550 range and not the start of sustained rise.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Prospect for further NZD weakness has diminished. Despite dropping sharply last Friday (14 Jun) and coming close to taking out the year-to-date low of 0.6482, NZD has not been able to make much headway on the downside. The sharp recovery yesterday (18 Jun) has diminished the prospect for further NZD weakness but confirmation of a short-term bottom is only upon a breach of the 0.6550 ‘key resistance’. In view of the waning downward momentum, a break of 0.6550 would not be surprising unless NZD can move and stay below 0.6515 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Jun 19 - 12:12 AM
USD/JPY - Firmer With Risk As Nikkei Jumps
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 09:30 PM
  • +0.1% with JPY crosses a touch higher with risk appetite - Nikkei up 1.7%
  • Trade deficit beat forecast, but exports fell for the 6th month nL4N23O23A
  • 108.00 2.8BLN and 108.30-40 1.3BLN are the close strikes, but look safe
  • Horizontal Tenkan & Kijun lines suggest further consolidation
  • Key levels are 107.77/107.81 double bottom and the 109.24 Kijun line
  • Earlier 108.44 low and this week's 108.73 high initial support/resistance

jpy jun 19 Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - Massive Strikes Around 1.1200 Contain, Bias Lower
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 08:40 PM
  • +0.06% after closing -0.2%, as dovish Draghi stirred up Trump nL8N23P1Q4
  • ECB policy makers undecided on how on the form of any stimulus nL4N23P3OE
  • Massive 1.1190-1.1210 5BLN strikes will likely contain in Asia
  • Charts show momentum studies flat lining, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict
  • Neutral setup, close below 1.1198, 61.8% March/May fall is bearish
  • Targets 1.1162, 76.4% - close above 1.1220/22, 5 & 21 DMAs negates
  • Europe's 1.1181 low and NY 1.1213 high is initial support/resistance

eur jun 19 Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - Opens Lower After Dovish Draghi
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 07:30 PM
  • EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1181 after dovish Draghi speech nL8N23P1Q4
  • Fall limited by dovish turn in Fed expectations ahead of FOMC today
  • Close below 61.8 of 1.1105/1.1349 move at 1.1198 targets 1.1100/10
  • Asia likely to be quiet ahead of crucial Fed meeting later today
  • Fed will have a difficult time meeting dovish market expectations

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Opens Bid As Risk Assets Soar To Offset Dovish RBA
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 06:25 PM
  • AUD/USD recovered sharply from 0.6832 as Draghi more dovish than RBA Minutes nECBSINTRA
  • Pair also underpinned by dovish turn in Fed expectations & sinking US yields
  • Risk assets rallied with EM ETF (EEM) up 2.41%; Copper up 2.8%; S&P up 0.97%
  • Move higher spurred by confirmation Trump to meet with Xi
  • AUD/USD resistance at Monday's 0.6884 high with break targeting 0.6905
  • The 38.2 of 0.7025/0.6832 move is at 0.6905 & break suggests bottom in place
  • Asian equity markets should move higher and CNY fix will be in focus

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 05:00 PM
JPY: Skeptical BoJ Can Weaken The JPY N-Term - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 03:30 PM

MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook in light of this week's BoJ policy meeting.

"Market participants appear less concerned over the risk of a dovish surprise at the BoJ’s policy meeting. Current economic conditions are not yet sufficient to justify “something big” from the BoJ. The BoJ is judged as more likely to elaborate on “easing continuation measures” announced in April. A further extension to their forward rate guidance is also a possibility," MUFG notes. 

"The BoJ is currently signalling it plans to keep rates unchanged “at least through around spring 2020”. However, Governor Kuroda has already stated that “there is fair possibility that the current low interest rates will be maintained beyond this period, depending on future developments”. Similar to other market participants we remain sceptical that the BoJ can weaken the yen in the near-term. There is currently a high hurdle for the BoJ to re-weaken the yen through additional easing measures," MUFG adds. 

Source:
BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Jun 18 - 03:48 PM
EUR/USD - Consolidates Draghi Induced Losses Ahead Of The Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 01:45 PM
  • Pair trades heavy in NY despite softer US data
  • Dovish Draghi sends EZ yields lower, 10-yr bund yield hits -0.32%
  • DE-US spreads widen to help keep EUR/USD below the daily cloud
  • Trump induced yen sales sharply lift EUR/JPY & USD/JPY, buffets EUR/USD
  • Market awaits Fed, chance of cut near 20%, July 31 cut at 100% FEDWATCH
  • If Fed takes a dovish stance EUR/USD bears might retreat

chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Bears On Alert On Trade Deal, Fed Risks
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 12:50 PM

AUD/USD plumbed a new 5-month low after RBA minutes said the bank believes additional interest rate cuts will likely have to be made nRUAIHEF5U.
Bears were able to drive AUD/USD below 0.6835, but the lack of a deeper slide should concern shorts.
Investors are leery of the Fed potentially taking a dovish stance.
Indeed, chances of a Fed cut increased slightly after ECB President Draghi said the bank could ease policy should inflation not head back to its target nECBSINTRA.
U.S. Treasury yields slid and short-term rates markets now imply a 20% chance of a cut Wednesday and greater than 100% chance at the July meeting.
Meanwhile, a potential easing of U.S.-Sino trade tensions from President Trump nW1N22L00P and President Xi nS7N239017 can enhance AUD/USD bears' concerns.
The trade headlines rallied risk sharply, with EM currencies rising sharply against the greenback.
USD/CNH dove below 6.8975 while yen sales drove AUD/JPY above 74.60, and AUD/USD neared resistance near 0.6885.
Price action has AUD/USD daily techs leaning bullish as a hammer candle formed while RSI diverged on the new low.
Should the Fed take a dovish stance tomorrow, AUD/USD short covering will likely ensue leading to a test of the 55-DMA and June's high.

chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY: L-Term & S-Term Trends - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 11:15 AM

ING summarizes its technical bias for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and EUR/JPY.

 EUR/USD

Long-term trend: Down. Still moving within an 8 year falling trend channel.

Short-term trend: Neutral. Breaking below solid support around 1.1220.

 USD/JPY

Long-term trend: Down. On the verge of completing a large triangle on the downside.

Short-term trend: Down. Developing a bear flag formation, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

EUR/JPY

Long-term trend: Down. A test of the solid horizontal support around 111.95 should be expected.

Short-term trend: Down. The picture is weakening, waiting for a break below the crucial support around 120.90.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
Jun 18 - 12:12 PM
AUD/USD - Trump Trumps RBA's Dovish Tone In Minutes
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 10:05 AM
  • AUD/USD rallies, erases fall induced by dovish lean in RBA minutes
  • Trump tweets send upbeat message on US-Sino trade issues nW1N22L00P
  • Emerging mkt & high beta currencies rally sharply while Japan's yen weakens
  • USD/CNH plummets towards 6.9150, AUD/USD rallies above 0.6860
  • Bull hammer on daily chart, RSI diverges on new low, techs warn a bounce due
  • 0.6910/40 is decent resistance, break above that could scatter bears a bit

chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 11:00 AM
G10: Markets Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC; AUD/NZD: Downside Best Way To Play RBA N-Term - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 08:40 AM

TD Research notes that the FX market is likely to consolidate ahead of the Fed tomorrow, while flagging a scope for further downside in AUD/NZD in anticipation of another RBA cut at the central bank coming policy meeting.

"It seems dovish central banks can boost carry trades in the very short-run with ZAR, TRY and NZD the top performers on the day. AUDNZD is pushing back to the key 1.05 level while EURJPY grinds lower too," TD notes. 

"The pullback in AUDNZD probably reflects scope for the RBA to cut rates again at the June meeting. We continue to think that AUDNZD downside is the best way to play the RBA in the very near future. Elsewhere, the markets are likely to consolidate ahead of the Fed tomorrow where many hope the Powell leaves the cut narrative unchanged," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Jun 18 - 07:24 AM
AUD/USD - Close To 23-Week Low After RBA's Dovish Message
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 06:10 AM
  • AUD/USD hit 0.6832 early Europe as continent digested dovish RBA minutes
  • See: nRUAIHEF5U. 0.6832 = fractionally new 23-week low. 0.6833 = Asia low
  • Bear targets include 0.6800 and 0.6715 (Jan 3, 10-year low re: flash crash)
  • 0.6850-60 is now a resistance window (stops sub-0.6860 were tripped Monday)
  • RBA's Lowe to speak about 'Labour Market and Spare Capacity' Thursday
  • Fed statement Wednesday will impact AUD/USD before Lowe speaks

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY's Downside Risk Grows As A Key Fibo Limits Upside
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 03:50 AM
  • Bias remains on downside, the 10 and 30-DMAs remain negatively aligned
  • Growing risk for a fall to the 30-day lower bolli-band now at 107.81
  • The upside remains weighed down by the key 108.93 Fibonacci level
  • 108.93 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 112.40 to 107.81 (April to June) fall
  • We are looking to get short at 108.75, ahead of the 108.89 key Fibo
  • EUR/JPY range has been 121.60-87 on Tues so far, according prices on the EBS

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - A Sick Pound Should Take EUR/USD Down Too
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 03:00 AM
  • GBP weighed by rising fears of a no deal Brexit
  • EUR/GBP boosted towards 0.9000 (GBP/EUR 1.1100), last above in Jan
  • Heavy option (defendable barriers) and corp selling is very likely
  • No deal carries substantial risks for the euro and EZ too yet nothing priced
  • Should GBP continue to slide, weight on euro should intensify
  • 1.2500 GBP/USD barriers next trigger point. Only lower day Jan 3 flash crash

GBP charts Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - FX Traders Again Teased By A Potential Bull Signal
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 01:50 AM
  • May 31 hammer candle low put up little fight Monday
  • Our tight 1.2545 long stop was hit, we now stand aside
  • Early Tues modest rebound from 1.2512 leaving a long lower candle wick
  • Again the price action teasing the market with tentative bull signals
  • However, 14-day momentum remains negative and RSI back to neutral levels
  • Will watch how a potential hammer plays out today and for Wed confirmation

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Eases Below 0.6850 As RBA Minutes Dovish
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 09:40 PM
  • RBA Minutes say further easing "more likely than not" nRUAIHEF5U
  • Minutes highlight downside global risks from trade war
  • RBA worried about subdued inflation anchoring inflation expectations
  • AUD/USD about 10 pips lower, as market was already pricing in more cuts
  • AUD/USD technically vulnerable, but may not move too far ahead of FOMC

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 18 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 18 - 12:00 AM

EUR/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW EUR is likely to trade sideways, expected to be between 1.1200 and 1.1250. We highlighted yesterday that EUR “could dip below 1.1200 but the next support at 1.1170 is unlikely to come into the picture”. However, EUR only touched 1.1220 before staging a mild recovery. While downward pressure has waned, it is too soon to expect a sustained rebound. EUR is more likely to trade sideways at these lower levels, expected to be between 1.1200 and 1.1250.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Bias for is for EUR to move lower and test 1.1150. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (17 Jun, spot at 1.1215) as EUR traded in a quiet manner before ending the day a tad higher at 1.1217 (+0.08%). As indicated, the immediate bias for EUR has shifted to the downside but we do not expect any weakness to be sustained and we see low chance of EUR threatening the critical 1.1100 support. However, a test of 1.1150 would not be surprising. On the upside, only a move above 1.1290 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW GBP is likely to weaken but oversold conditions could limit decline to 1.2500. The sudden lurch lower in GBP that hit 1.2532 came as a surprise. While momentum has picked up considerably, the current weakness in GBP is still deep in oversold territory and any further decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2500 (next support is at 1.2470). On the upside, yesterday’s peak near 1.2605 is not expected to be challenged (1.2570 is already quite a strong level).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP has moved into ‘negative phase’, could weaken to 1.2440. While the downward movement in GBP is line with our expectation, the pace of the decline was not expected. We indicated yesterday (17 Jun, spot at 1.2590) that GBP is expected to “trade with a downside bias” and added, “a break of 1.2500 is unlikely”. In that context, the sharp decline of 0.46% and the subsequent weak daily closing of 1.2533 in NY (just one pip above the overnight low of 1.2532) came as a surprise. The rapid improvement in momentum suggests GBP has move into a ‘negative phase’ and a break of 1.2500 could lead to further GBP weakness to 1.2440. The early January ‘flash crash’ low of 1.2410 could be just out of reach for the current ‘negative phase’. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above the 1.2640 ‘key resistance’.

AUD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW AUD could continue to move lower but 0.6810 is unlikely to come into the picture for today. Despite being severely oversold, the weakness in AUD extended to 0.6849. Downward momentum appears to be struggling and while AUD could continue to move lower, the next support at 0.6810 is unlikely to come into the picture for today (minor support at 0.6830). Resistance is at 0.6875 followed by 0.6900. The latter level is acting as a strong resistance now.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD has moved into a negative phase, could move below 0.6810 in the days ahead. Yesterday (17 Jun, spot at 0.6875), we highlighted the improvement in downward momentum and were of the view that “if AUD were to register a NY close below 0.6865, it would indicate the start of a move to 0.6810”. AUD subsequently dropped to 0.6849 before ending the day on a weak note at 0.6853 (-0.27%). The price action indicates that AUD has moved into a ‘negative phase’ and in view of the further increase in downward momentum, AUD could dip below the 0.6810 (next support is at 0.6770). Overall, AUD is expected to stay under pressure in the coming days unless it can move above the 0.6935 ‘key resistance’. On a shorter-term note, 0.6900 is already a strong level.

USD/JPY: 

24-HOUR VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 108.35 and 108.75. Yesterday, we expected USD to “test 108.80 first before easing off”. However, USD only touched 108.72 before retreating. Upward pressure has dissipated and USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 108.35 and 108.75.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Diminished odds for further USD weakness. There is not much to add as USD spent another day going nowhere and ended the day unchanged at 108.55. Our narrative remains unchanged wherein USD is in a ‘negative phase’ but the odds for further weakness have diminished. However, only a break of the 109.05 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that USD has moved into a ‘sideway-trading phase’. To put it another way, there is still a slim chance that USD could move to the 107.50/105.70 support zone from here.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Jun 18 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Strikes Contain, While EUR/GBP Demand Supports
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 09:15 PM
  • Up 0.1% after opening flat, supported by large EUR/GBP demand in NY
  • EUR/GBP +0.1% - closed +0.5%, as a no deal Brexit increases nL8N23O1GJ
  • 1.1200-10 1.3BLN, 1.1225 350M, 1.1240 1BLN are today's close strikes
  • Charts show negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict
  • Neutral setup, close below 1.1198, 61.8% March/May fall would be bearish
  • Europe's 1.1204 low and NY 1.1247 high is initial support/resistance

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 17 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Fresh Lows, As No Deal Brexit Gains Traction
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 08:45 PM
  • +0.1%, early bargain hunting into yesterday's 0.5% fall and fresh 1.2532 low
  • Boris as PM and the rising chances of a no deal Brexit weigh nL8N23O175
  • Contenders for PM say UK must leave on Oct 31, deal or no deal nL8N23O1GJ
  • Momentum studies head lower, daily and weekly 5, 10 & 21 DMAs fall
  • Bearish setup now targets the 1.2409 flash crash and 2019 low
  • Psychological 1.2500 and NY 1.2606 high initial support/resistance

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Jun 17 - 09:48 PM
USD/JPY - Stationary Into C.bank Events, Bides Time For Move
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 07:25 PM
  • USD/JPY continues its sideways consolidation, marks time ahead of Fed & BOJ
  • Rallies stunted as Fed seen laying groundwork for rate cut later this year
  • Rising U.S.-Iran tensions nL8N23O4N0, acrimonious U.S-China ties cap
  • Down side limited, Fed easing hopes negated by BOJ ultra-loose policy
  • BOJ's 2% inflation target remains elusive, more easing by Sept? nL4N23N169
  • Support 108.35, 108.15-20; resistance 108.60, 108.70-80

Big shoes to fill? png: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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