• EUR downside bias firmly intact as spot nears YTD lows (1.1409)

• Move still primarily USD-driven. Markets continue to react to hawkish Fed decision

• Dollar broke out from range tops to trade at a fresh 1-year high, exacerbating the move

• Spot has caught up with rate differentials, raising questions on incremental downside from here

• 1.1390-1.1410 marks support - price action around this zone should be instructive for directional follow-through

• A clean break below opens extension towards 1.1300

• Tactically, bias is likely for rallies to be faded rather than chasing downside at current levels

• Resistance seen at 1.1620 (pre-Fed level) and 1.1673 (200DMA)
EURUSD vs rate spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))