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Aug 25 - 04:55 PM

USD/JPY - Tiny New 2023 High As Fed Rate Cut Pricing Pruned On Powell

By Randolph Donney  —  Aug 25 - 03:05 PM
  • So far, Fri's 146.64 high vs prior 2023 peak at 146.565 is a feint

  • Rise prompted by now receding Tsy yield gains after Powell's speech

  • But those gains look ever more data-dependent

  • That as Fed policy is increasingly data-dependent

  • Shifts the focus to core PCE on Thursday and NFP on Friday

  • To sustain a breakout, US data will need to support Fed firmness

  • Some risk of O/B but lower RSI high bearishly diverging from new price high

  • Prices now above tenkan support at 145.595 on EBS

  • That's near next week's biggest option expiries at 145.50 on Wednesday

  • 2-yr Tsy-JGB yield spreads probed July highs

  • But 10-yr spreads slipped and are 12bp below Aug's 2023 highs

  • BoJ Gov Ueda presents at Jackson Hole on Saturday

  • Signaling a big shift in its extremely easy policy is unlikely

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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