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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Richard Pace  —  Aug 02 - 02:30 AM
  • Overnight FX options expire Tues 10-am New York- get RBA policy announcement

  • Implied volatility gauges actual volatility expectations before expiry

  • Holders want actual volatility to outperform implied in order to profit

  • However, overnight AUD/USD implied volatility only marginally higher at 13.5

  • Recent average has been around 13.0 for context, although was 17.0 pre FOMC

  • AUD/USD already heavy amid dovish RBA expectations, so can limit FX reaction

  • Related comment nL4N2P905V


For more click on FXBUZ


Overnight expiry AUD/USD option implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Aug 02 - 02:16 AM
  • EUR/USD recovery on Thursday broke and closed above the 1.1873 Fibo

  • 1.1873 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 1.2266 to 1.1752 (May to July) fall

  • But Friday saw it drop and close back under that technical level

  • Bulls need another daily close back above 1.1873 Fibo to unmask 1.1948 Fibo

  • 1.1948 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 1.2266 to 1.1752 (May to July) fall

  • Fourteen-day momentum is positive, overall risk remains on the upside

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2P60AM

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 01 - 11:42 PM

  • Touch softer in a tight 1.3888-1.3902 range with only moderate flow

  • Buoyant markets cap USD - E-mini S&P +0.55%, Nikkei +1.7% and AsiaxJP +0.5%

  • UK may offer 32 million vaccine booster shots from September - The Telegraph

  • If true a major weapon in the fight against the Delta variant nFWN2P61W0

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages climb - mixed momentum studies

  • Net bullish setup, despite Friday's dip- 1.3819/21 21 & 10 DMA's key support

  • 1.3981 upper 21 day Bollinger and 1.3991 61.8% June July fall cap at present

  • Break would open the door to 1.4090 76.4% retracement of June July fall

    For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 aug 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 01 - 10:18 PM
  • AUD/USD trading at 0.7330 just below Friday's 0.7332 low

  • Weaker than expected Caixin PMI follows weaker official China PMI nZUN003013

  • USD/CNH moving higher while China Shanghai Comp down 0.70% nL1N2P903G

  • Rising COVID cases in China also weighing on sentiment nB9N2OJ01D

  • AUD/USD support is at last week's 0.7317 low and trend low at 0.7289

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 01 - 08:43 PM

  • Steady after closing off 0.15% capped by a broadly firmer USD

  • E-mini S&P up 0.4%, Nikkei +1.2% support risk, and cap USD in Asia

  • German conservatives maintain their lead over Greens nL1N2P70GT

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 DMAs climb, 5 days of higher lows & highs

  • Modest positive setup targets a return to the 1.2008 200 DMA longer term

  • 1.1897 rising upper 21 day Bolli band, 1.1909 London top first resistance

  • 1.1856 5 DMA a base late last week, then 1.1851 NY low initial support

  • 1.1800/15 1.107 BLN and 1.1900 1.387 BLN are significant close strikes

For more click on FXBUZ


eur aug 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 01 - 06:49 PM
  • EUR/USD steady at the open after slipping from a 1-month high at 1.1909

  • It closed 0.08% lower Friday, but still gained 0.84% for the week

  • EUR/USD stopped trending lower and is now on brink of trending higher

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.1823 and 10-day MA at 1.1819

  • Resistance is at Friday's 1.1909 high and break targets 38.2 fibo at 1.1948

  • EUR/USD will likely consolidate ahead of the key US jobs report on Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 01 - 05:49 PM
  • AUD/USD opened lower after soft China PMI and concerns over extended Sydney lockdown nL4N2P31F8nL1N2P800V

  • RBA meets tomorrow with market expecting a reverse of July taper decision

  • AUD/USD support at Friday's 0.7332 low and last week's low at 0.7317

  • Key resistance is @ the 21-day MA @ 0.7411 and break eases downward pressure

  • AUD/USD likely to remain heavy as iron ore prices slide on demand concerns

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 30 - 04:05 PM
  • USD/CAD ends NorAm +0.23% at 1.2472, Friday range 1.2492-1.2423

  • Pair gives back some of weeks gain into month-end, USD/CAD -0.81% on week

  • Steady Fed on taper, rates soft versus BoC more hawkish taper view

  • Pair finds support at Jul 14's 1.2421 low, a tad below Friday's 1.2423 low

  • More significant supt at 100DMA by 1.2368 and then daily cloud top by 1.2331

  • Bears in control, bulls need a rise abv 200-DMA by 1.2598

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jul 30 - 02:56 PM
  • USD/JPY well off 109.365 EBS low and up 0.27% in late NY trading

  • Recovery all driven by dollar's mo-end rebound after miserable week

  • Lower 30-day Bolli by the low, 109.295 cloud base also supportive

  • U.S. data mixed, 10-yr Tsy-JGB yield spreads near lowest since February

  • And June NFP beat on July 2 marked USD/JPY's 111.66 peak nL1N2P61VD

  • Raises the question of what counts for bullish U.S. data?

  • Resistance is by Thursday's high, tenkan and 10-DMA just shy of 110

  • Japan's expanding pandemic emergency nL4N2P61Z9 keeps JGB yields heavy

  • Monday features U.S. ISM manufacturing, services and ADP Wednesday

  • Friday's payrolls report is the main event, but market response key

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 30 - 01:54 PM
  • EUR/USD falls from 1.1909 EBS high in Europe am, NY opens near 1.1900

  • US$, rates firms after slew of US data released nL1N2P52DBnL1N2P52IE

  • EUR/USD slide extends nL1N2P618B, drop aided by slight risk-off theme

  • Pair turns negative on the session, hits 1.18515 (EBS), near 1.1860 late

  • Price action produces bearish tech signals into weekend, month end

  • Daily RSI diverges, daily inverted hammer & monthly doji candles form

  • After false break old range likely to persist into US jobs nL1N2P61MF

  • For more click on FXBUZ




eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 30 - 12:00 PM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY outlook and outlines the following 2 reasons holding off long positions:

"1. Long USDJPY and also cross -JPY still seems to be a favourite structural position, both anecdotally and also looking at indicators like IMM speculative positioning. 2. Despite the sharp drop in US – Japan yield differentials and also US real yields this month, USDJPY has mostly held above the 110 level, encouraged by generally low FX / asset price volatility, still -tight US credit spreads and new record highs for US equities," CS notes. 

"In short, trade location has simply not been attractive to go long given macro developments and positioning risks," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 30 - 01:18 PM
  • AUD/USD rally off July 21 low halts near 21-DMA, bear flag top on day chart

  • Pair falls sharply today, slips back below 10-DMA, nears bear flag base

  • Daily RSI turns down after oversold unwind, monthly RSI falls further

  • Break of bear flag base implies next leg of bear trend is beginning

  • Completion of bear flag suggests test of 38.2% Fib of 0.5510-0.8007 possible

  • Nov 2020 monthly low at 0.6990 targeted should that Fibo break

  • For more click on FXBUZ




audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 30 - 10:45 AM

ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD outlook and likes buying dips over the coming weeks.

"The NZD has slightly underperformed expectations, trading sideways through July. Even against currencies with much more dovish central banks, the NZD has struggled for traction. This underscores the importance of the global cycle for the high beta currencies, with waning enthusiasm for the reflation trade offsetting the positive domestic backdrop,' ANZ notes. 

"We think any dips in the currency will be well bought, however, with the RBNZ’s aggressive stance providing a floor for any weakness," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 30 - 10:34 AM

GBP/USD was little changed on Friday but on course to end the week higher and close out July near its peak for the month, and possibly end the session above the 10-week moving average at 1.3911, which would enhance cable's bullish outlook.

U.S.
PCE data nL1N2P52DB held little sway over forex markets, though slightly below-consensus core PCE prices appeared to support the Fed's cautious approach to discussing asset purchase tapering at this week's meeting.

That reluctance has helped GBP/USD recover from its recent slide to 1.3573.

With several BoE members shifting to more hawkish bias, and short-sterling futures indicating a earlier BoE rate hike than the Fed 0#FSS:0#ED:, GBP bulls are being drawn to the Aug.
2 cloud twist just above today's 1.3984 high.

A close above the 10-WMA at 1.3911 would give bullish momentum to sterling ahead of the Aug.
5 BoE meeting, and a hawkish tone there could send it through resistance at June 23's 1.4001 high, putting it on a path toward June 1's 1.4250 high.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 30 - 09:34 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and awaits a dip buying opportunity over the coming weeks.

"We discuss recent political developments and what could be at stake in the upcoming elections in the fall. With political uncertainty and August seasonality, JPY’s corrective strength could continue through the summer but US factors and JPY’s structural flow remain supportive for USD/JPY over the medium term," BofA notes. 

"A dip in USD/JPY could provide a buying opportunity, though patience may be needed," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jul 30 - 08:40 AM

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees a limited scope for the pair to trend higher in the near-term.

"The swing in July was certainly extreme and unlikely to be replicated but it does highlight one of the fundamental factors limiting the scope for the yen to depreciate on any kind of a sustained basis at levels over 110.00. At the lower bound with investors holding little confidence in the BoJ’s ability to lift inflation, real yields are likely to remain relatively attractive," MUFG notes. 

"Add to this a structurally stable current account surplus over 3% of GDP and a currency that on many metrics is about 10% undervalued, the prospect of USD/JPY trending higher from here looks limited. Yes, a rebound in US nominal yields can play a role in lifting USD/JPY as correlations show but the correlations weaken at higher levels over 110.00 and over a medium term timeframe, valuation, external positions and real yields suggest downside risks," MUFG adds.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 30 - 07:02 AM
  • Cable hit 1.3983 after rising from 1.3935 amid month-end USD supply talk

  • 1.3983 is fractionally fresh five-week peak (1.3982 was Thursday's high)

  • 1.3935 was early London low (which a Fibo level helped define) nL1N2P60M3

  • Sell orders expected by 1.40, inclusive of profit-take interest nL1N2P60M3

  • 1.3768 was Tuesday's low, before fix-related buying of GBP nL8N2P44XS

  • Powell bets U.S. economy will navigate new coronavirus surge nL1N2P51JW

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 30 - 05:47 AM
  • Q2 preliminary GDP data beat fuels economic recovery hopes nL8N2P63NF

  • Provides additional support to EUR/USD amid weak post Fed USD backdrop

  • EUR/USD tests 30 June high 1.1909, next up are 29-28 June highs 1.1929-44

  • Thurs break/close above 23.6% of 1.2266-1.1752 can target 38.2% 1.1948

  • However, market still lacks conviction and month end flows cloud picture

  • 2-billion 1.1900-20 option expiry resistance, more below nL1N2P60CU

  • Option risk reversals regain topside vol premium, but still tiny @ 0.05




For more click on FXBUZ


EUR=EBS Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 30 - 04:42 AM
  • USD/CAD by Thurs 1.2432 low after break/close below key Fibo at 1.2501

  • 1.2501 was 38.2% retrace of recent 1.2007-1.2806 rally, 50% is 1.2406

  • 1.2406 break/close opens 100-dma 1.2368, then cloud twist 5 Aug 1.2307-33

  • Talk of stops lowered to Thurs 1.2530 peak, reinforced by 21-dma 1.2519

  • Strong Cnd GDP (-0.3% exp vs -0.3% prior) should help CAD bulls

  • Month end flows may cloud picture, said to be USD negative

For more click on FXBUZ


CAD=D3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 30 - 04:36 AM
  • Cable threatens 1.3982 (Thurday's five-week high) after rallying from 1.3935

  • 1.3935 was early London low, courtesy of a decline in risk appetite

  • See: nL1N2P60ET. Offers expected pre-1.40 if GBP/USD extends north

  • 1.3991 = 61.8% Fibo of 1.4250 (June 1 high) to 1.3573 (July 20 low)

  • Recently instigated GBP shorts have been squeezed during climb from 1.3573

  • IMM specs flipped to first net GBP short since Dec in week ended July 20

  • See: nL1N2P20AZ. CFTC data for the week ended July 27 is due at 1930GMT

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 30 - 02:48 AM
  • EUR/USD's post Fed recovery matches 6 July 1.1895 peak Friday

  • Close above 23.6% of 1.2266-1.1752 fall at 1.1873 opens 38.2% 1.1943

  • However, huge 5-billion options between 1.1850-1.1920 expire 10-am NY

  • Related delta hedging could certainly have some influence - add resistance

  • EUR/USD implied volatility finds mild support after post Fed setback

  • 1-month risk reversals show a tiny topside vol premium emerging

  • Options focus volatility premium on Jackson hole and Sept Fed nL1N2P50XA

For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD option expiries Click here

EUR/USD 1-3 month expiry option risk reversals Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 30 - 01:54 AM
  • EUR/USD recovery moves has broken and closed above the 1.1873 Fibo

  • 1.1873 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 1.2266 to 1.1752 (May to July) fall

  • That has unmasked the 1.1948 Fibo, a 38.2% of the same drop

  • Fourteen-day momentum has turned positive, risk shifts to the upside

  • We remain short at 1.1835, a bearish resumption is badly needed

  • Fed has blown the dollar's rise off course nL1N2P50QO

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2P50F9

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 30 - 01:49 AM
  • FX options expire 10-am New York/3-pm London - Friday July 30

  • EUR/USD: 1.1850 (1.5BLN), 1.1865-75, 1.1900 (1.3BLN), 1.1910-20 (700M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9225 (250M). EUR/NOK: 10.35 (520M). AUD/USD: 0.7340 (205M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8470-80 (810M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3800 (381M), 1.3900-05 (425M), 1.4000 (270M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2400 (785M), 1.2450 (735M), 1.2500 (835M), 1.2545 (431M)

  • USD/JPY: 109.00 (537M), 109.25-35 (500M), 110.25 (315M), 110.40 (280M)


For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 29 - 11:40 PM

  • -0.05%, towards the base of a 1.3945-1.3971 range, as the USD firmed

  • Subdued Amazon Q3 outlook, fell 7% after hours, weighing on risk in Asia

  • Amazon issues not seen in other major tech results - modest impact likely

  • Month end flows often create short term volatility in sterling

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages climb - momentum studies rise

  • Bullish setup after four days of higher highs and seven higher lows

  • 1.3985 upper 21 day Bolli and 1.3991 61.8% June July fall cap at present

  • 1.4000 break opens the door to 1.4090 76.4% retracement of June July fall

    For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jul 30 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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