Two outcomes are likely for EUR/USD after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole today.
It will either drop immediately or rally a little -- then drop gradually to retest 1.1000 again.
Chances of a sustainable rise are remote.
Traders are not that short EUR/USD, while the level of interest rates supports a bigger drop.
The disparity between bets on a drop and the rewards for those that sell has been apparent all year.
Recently, the number betting on a fall has declined substantially, but the rate gap has only narrowed slightly.
To turn the EUR/USD trend, Powell would have to talk like President Donald Trump -- promising huge cuts totally at odds with the pillars of Fed policy, unemployment and inflation.
That's not going to happen.
The governor might speak about insulating the economy with further easing but the scope of such measures is unlikely to be greater than what's already priced in.