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TDUX
Nov 05 - 10:55 AM
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Credit Agricole: October Employment Preview: Bouncing Back a Bit

By eFXdata  —  Nov 05 - 10:15 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US October jobs report due on Friday.

"This month, we look for headline NFP to rise by +65k, offering a middle ground in firming from +29k in September but still coming in below +133k in August. On balance, we see this as a solid pace in the current environment in which the breakeven has dropped sharply due to shifts in immigration policy, especially as the three-month moving average would bump up to +76k from +51k if our forecast is on track, pending revisions," CACIB notes.

"With decent job gains expected on the month, we project an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, slightly up from the July/August trough but still a historically low level. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM, firming from just 0.1% MoM in September, though base effects would still take the YoY pace down to 2.9% from 3.0%," CACIB adds.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
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