(Typo in title corrected)

• USD/CAD is hovering around levels last seen in April 2025

• Although repeated failures to break cleanly through 1.4248 suggests topside momentum is slowing

• There is no clear catalyst for a CAD rebound yet

• US yields are continuing to drift higher (10s at 5.29%), which keeps dollar dips shallow and biased to the upside

• Initial support comes in at 1.4180 (200-hour MA), with a deeper cushion at 1.4126-40. Resistance: 1.4300

• In the near-term, the bias leans towards consolidation leading into the CA labour market report (due Oct 9)
usdcad hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research likes short EUR/AUD exposure in the near-term.

"Looking ahead, we see two-sided risks for the currency. Many of the macro tailwinds that have supported AUD this year remain intact, including resilient global growth, terms of trade tailwinds, a complicated but supportive China macro connection, notable fiscal resilience, and a strong carry offering. As a result, we see scope for further AUD outperformance with our preferred expression being short EUR/AUD," GS notes.

On the domestic front, however, downside risks from the housing and consumer sectors remain a concern. And while our economists have flagged the possibility of additional tightening if inflation surprises to the upside, they expect the RBA to hold policy until easing in 2H2027," GS adds.

JP Morgan sees EUR/USD a sell-on-rallies in the near-term.

"Sunday gaps are always questionable so trying to gauge the appetite to sell the rally here as all we will do this week is chase the Bund- OAT spread tick for tick given the overall lack of meaningful data on the calendar," JPM notes.

"So levels to watch are the fresh low of 1.1161 last night and 1.1109 Fibo retrace support on the downside. On the top a close above Friday’s highs of 1.1285 would represent an outside day reversal and 1.1310/30 was the breakdown level on Thursday," JPM adds.

By Justin McQueen

LONDON, Oct 5 - USD/CAD has swung from one extreme to the other since September, with RSI moving from oversold territory to firmly overbought. Spot is now trading around levels last seen in April 2025, although repeated failures to break cleanly through the year-to-date high at 1.4248 suggest that topside momentum may be starting to lose traction.

That said, the RSI being overbought is not in itself a compelling reason to fade the move. USD/CAD has shown a tendency in recent months to trend further and for longer than expected, leaving short-term counter-trend positions vulnerable. Historically, when RSI first breaks above 78 — which occurred last week — spot has generally continued to grind higher over the following 5–10 sessions.

However, in the medium term, the signal is more constructive for CAD. Over a 60-day period, USD/CAD has more consistently pulled back after entering this degree of overbought territory, with the main exceptions occurring during recessionary periods, notably in 1998 and 2008. In short, the near-term bias remains for a possible further squeeze higher, but the risk-reward for chasing topside looks increasingly less attractive, particularly if spot fails to sustain breaks above 1.4248.
CAD RSI signals

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Adds headline)

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6933 overnight, buyers emerged, the pair turned positive

• US September ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a risk in NY's morning

• 0.6966 traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.6960, up +0.16%

• Softer US yields , USD/CNH pull back from its high helped buoy

• Rallies in gold, silver and copper also contributed to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• Daily bull hammer formed but pair still within Friday's daily range

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs give AUD/USD bulls some hope
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/JPY is in the limelight due to broad euro weakness. EUR/USD at risk of a bigger slump

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.46-158.16 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• Last week spot failed to sustain breaks below 156.68 Fibo, setting up a bear trap

• 156.68 Fibo is a 38.2% retracement of the 150.89 to 159.03 (September) EBS rise

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses: a bullish sign

• However, USD/JPY may have found a top ahead of 160 as Japanese official rhetoric changes

Daily Chart


Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 5 (Reuters) - The fragile EUR/USD could be set for a bigger slump to a major retracement level in coming sessions due to a combination of weak fundamentals and bearish developments on the weekly chart.

The euro slid sharply on Monday to a multi-month low as fiscal worries in France in the wake of a steep bond market rout stoked contagion fears in the region, helping the dollar shrug off soft US jobs data that dented near-term rate hike expectations.

EUR/USD is at risk of a deeper slide to the 1.1104 level, a 50% retracement of the 1.0125 to 1.2084 (2025 to 2026) EBS rise, in part due to last week's bearish close below the 1.1336 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retracement of the same 1.0125 to 1.2084 gain.

The downside bias is being reinforced by the 14-week momentum reading, which has been negative for three weeks straight.
Weekly Chart


Weekly Momentum Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable fell to 1.3191 in Asia as EUR/USD slid to 17-month low of 1.1161

• EUR/GBP simultaneously fell to 0.8461 in Asia, its lowest level since July

• Euro negatively impacted by French fiscal woes, early Spanish election risk

• 1.3191 is the lowest level for GBP/USD since Friday's 1.3256 high

• Support points include 1.3182 (Thursday's 3-month low) and 1.3140 (June low)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 10% to 91,075 (3-month high) in week to Sept 29

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option prices spiked higher last week as French debt concerns hit EUR and forced option short covering

• 1.1300 option barrier breach fuelled demand for strikes in the 1.1100 zone last week

• Recall hedge funds were huge buyers of downside digital type options - 6-12-month expiry 1.07-1.06 strikes

• 1.1200 option barriers were breached in Asia Monday, forcing more short gamma covering and option price gains

• Implied volatility eyes March 2026 peaks - above takes prices to highs since July 2025 - up from multi year lows mid Sept

• Downside over upside strike premium on risk reversals eyes levels last seen late 2022 - 1-month was neutral in mid Sept

• Friday's FX options wrap - Euro puts soar on French debt fears
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD whipsaws lower, undoing most of Friday's gain, last 0.6940

• Negative-USD reaction to NFP overturned by yields-related EUR selloff

• But as liquidity improves with European markets opening, EUR bobs up

• AUD/USD hence stabilizing, though bearish technical outlook may persist

• Even if it exits Bollinger downtrend channel 0.6982, strong ceiling overhead

• 200 DMA coincides with Ichimoku cloud near 0.7032; 100 DMA at 0.7055
AUD

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/KRW firms up as steep EUR losses overshadow US NFP

• Rises back to 1346.0, slightly above Fri close of 1344.2

• Could overturn previous closing inside downtrend channel 1345.5

• EUR drops sharply, down more than 0.7%, buoying USD/AXJ

• Concerns over euro bond yield premiums burdens the EUR

• S. Korea financial markets closed Monday
KRW

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD down 0.15%, offered despite weaker-than- expected US jobs data

• Markets take reduced October Fed rate hike odds in stride

• Above-target US inflation makes further hikes in coming months likely

• With US yields near multi-year highs, AUD upside likely to remain capped

• Support 0.6900-10, 0.6865-70, resistance 0.6975-80, 0.6995-0.7000

• Asia range 0.6942-0.6959; partial holiday in Australia dampens activity
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY still holding relatively bid despite weak US NFP, Japan off'l speak

• USD still bid elsewhere, affecting sentiment? Middle East escalation too

• Crude oil prices off some at NY close but up again on weekend news

• USD/JPY range Friday wide 156.96-158.21, Asia so far today 157.62-99 EBS

• Market not really believing Japan official-speak endorsing BOJ recent hikes

• EconMin Kiuchi admitted end of deflation, no need for extra-loose BOJ policy

• But Friday comments taken in stride ahead of US data jobs mkt release then

• FinMin Katayama again suggested FX intervention possible Friday

• News of MOF review of 200 funds worth Y7 tln also had little lasting impact

• USD/JPY currently holding in 157.41-78 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• 100 and 200-HMAs in area at 157.57 and 157.74, respectively

• Wider core range between 156.64 daily Ichimoku kijun, 200-DMA at 158.50

• Nearby option expiries today 157.00-05 $644 mln, 157.50 $639 mln

• Also 158.00 $852 mln, 158.25-30 $776 mln and some between 158.50-70

• JGB-US rate differentials narrowing from recent highs, 2s @286, 10s 214 bps

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , oil early Asia

• On US jobs report , Fed ,

• On Katayama-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US i10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Macmahon Holdings rise as much as 5% to A$1.050, posting their biggest intraday percentage gain since September 24

• Mining services provider's unit Macmahon Underground secures two-year contract extension from Vault Minerals at Daisy Milano gold mine in Western Australia

• Says extension is expected to generate about A$98 million ($68.13 million) in revenue, extends contract to October 2028

• Says FY27 guidance and capital expenditure budget remain unchanged

• Stock up 57.1% this year, as of last close

($1 = 1.4384 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's FMR Resources rise as much as 6.9% to A$0.62, their highest level since Sept 25

• Diversified explorer says diamond drilling program has commenced the La Lorena Project

• Co says it finds multiple diamond mineralization points in its copper-gold La Lorena Project in Chile

• YTD, stock up more than 143%, including day's moves

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD likely to stay bid on dips after closing 0.3% higher Friday

• Supported by weaker-than- expected US jobs data, waning Oct Fed rate bets

• US NFP +29k in Sep vs. 90k expected, prior 2 months revised sharply lower

• Odds of Fed Oct hike hover around 23%, was around 70% early last week

• US yields fall sharply after jobs data, but close higher as oil rebounds

• Fed's Hammack says there's still time to weigh next monetary policy move

• Support 0.6900-10, 0.6865-70, resistance 0.6975-80, 0.6995-0.7000

• Friday range 0.6913-0.6975; Chinese markets closed Mon
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec short 63,256 contracts as of Tuesday versus short of 52,334 contracts previous week

• JPY net spec long 55,440 contracts versus long of 71,982 contracts previously

• GBP net spec short 91,095 contracts vs 82,568 short

• AUD net spec short 63,239 contracts vs 46,814 short

• MXN net spec long 52,402 contracts vs 75,167 long

• CHF net spec short 24,617 contracts vs 26,752 short

• CAD short 78,671 contracts vs 53,210 short
EUR net spec Oct 2 2026

(Burton Frierson)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 1.1235, pair rallied after the September jobs report

• The softer data sent the USD, US yields , USD/CNH down

• Riskier assets like gold, silver, equities rallied to reinforce the USD selling

• EUR/USD hit 1.1285 but then a good portion of the data-induced gains faded

• USD, yields turned up, gold & silver turned down & oil moved upward

• EUR/USD sat near 1.1250 late, it traded up only +0.10% in NY's afternoon

• Daily RSI turned up but monthly RSI indicates longer-term downward momentum

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6935 after 0.6914 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• USD, US yields fell after the US September payroll data

• Gold, silver, copper, stocks rallied while USD/CNH fell to 6.7008

• AUD/USD hit 0.6976, bulls couldn't add to those gains however

• USD, yields moved upward while gold and silver turned lower

• AUD/USD neared 0.6945 late, it traded up only +0.23% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI rising but pair is below the 10- & 200-DMAs

• AUD/USD could be entering a consolidation phase, also a bearish signal
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research argues that EUR/USD is unlikely to repeat the 20222 sell-off.

"We are cautious on the EUR from current levels but doubt that a repeat of the aggressive 2022 sell-off is on the cards.

Firstly, the Eurozone economy shows considerable resilience, supported by robust domestic demand. It also remains to be seen whether the contagion from the OAT sell-off would intensify significantly further, in a blow to the EUR," CACIB notes.

"Also, the ECB is very focused on containing inflation, and its hikes support the EUR rate appeal. The downside risks to our EUR outlook would grow, however, if the EGB market sell-off escalates and thus tightens European financial conditions, limiting the ECB’s ability to hike too aggressively," CACIB adds.

• GBP marginally firmer post-payrolls but later pared gains. Range: 1.3184-1.3256

• Spot remains confined to narrow ranges, with rebounds lacking conviction

• Attempts to break below 1.3200 have stalled ahead of the 1.3140-60 support zone

• Initial resistance sits at 1.3274, followed by 1.3300

• Shallow dips in US yields also keep dollar risks leaning higher, putting a lid on cable

• However, sterling still performing against EUR, but support at 0.8500 holds for now
GBPUSD hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research maintains a bullish bias on GBP over the medium-term.

"Like France, the UK faces budget proximity risk, yet GBP has outperformed, only lagging JPY & USD over the past month. GBP is no longer the fiscal punching bag within G10 FX, partly due to "safety in numbers", but also more fundamental improvements. Sticky FDI inflows have provided a meaningful fillip to the UK's balance of payments. Gilts are under pressure due to global moves but outperforming cross-market, aided by the BoE's overhaul of the QT sales process. Finally, strengthening EU-UK ties now appears a more focused objective for the UK government," BofA notes.

"While serious negotiations are unlikely near-term, the prospect of all options being on the table is a medium-term positive for GBP. We stay constructive," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF meets headwind pre-0.9325 after rallying off 0.9260

• 0.9325 was EBS low on Thursday. 0.9260 was 10-week low at 1232 GMT

• Drop to 0.9260 prompted by wider French-German bond yield spread

• Hedge funds account for around 50% of French spread blowout, Fidelity says

• More EUR/CHF offers likely near 0.9350 and 0.9375

• 0.9260 is more than 2% below Wednesday's 17-month high

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook for the coming week.

"The EUR/USD pair set a fresh cycle low of 1.1215 this week, which we think is more a function of both the move up in the USD combined with France’s fiscal concerns," ANZ notes.

"EUR/USD is testing under 1.13 today. We think this is likely close to the floor. The move in the OAT-bund spreads and USD rally have all been absorbed. It is hard to see any developments in the week ahead that could take the EUR/USD lower, so we expect the 1.12– 1.13 range to hold in the week ahead," ANZ adds.