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Nov 20 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-Stop Spinning The EUR/USD Narrative And Look At FX Options

By Richard Pace  —  Nov 20 - 05:30 AM

For all the bullish and bearish arguments for EUR/USD of late, a near-term range break seems unlikely without a new catalyst, and the FX options market has been betting as much for a long time.

Implied volatility, which gauges future actual volatility to determine option premium, has been drifting ever lower - currently trading at new crisis lows across its one- to 12-month term structure.

But EUR bulls can take some hope from risk reversals.
They show how much volatility premium dealers are charging for options in one direction versus the other, and EUR calls win over puts (topside).
However, that premium is only small in near-term expiries.
It increases over time, so there's more conviction for EUR/USD to gain, eventually.

Outright flows reinforce that view.
Option volumes have been falling as the spot market stagnates, but EUR calls have been trading more than EUR puts, although most of the expiries for strikes above 1.2000 aren't until early 2021 and beyond.
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1-3-12-month EUR/USD risk reversals Click here

1-3-12-month EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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