• A 0.25% bounce after closing down 0.2% with the USD up 0.25% on Friday

• UK announces new $2 billion deal to fund air-defence missiles for Ukraine

• UK PM Starmer says he does not accept that US is an unreliable ally

• There is only second-tier UK data today, so risk appetite, USD to lead GBP

• Charts -5, 10 & 21-day MAs conflict, as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Negative daily momentum studies - the positive setup just hangs in

• Tested 1.2564 Feb 19 base, then the 1.2549 21 DMA are initial support

• Thursday's 1.2689 high and then the 1.2730 Dec 18 top are first resistance

• A sustained 1.2549 21-day moving average break would be bearish
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)