Oct 29 (Reuters) - EUR/USD could be on the verge of a much bigger slump in coming sessions to new 2026 lows.

The euro was steady on Thursday ahead of a policy decision from the European Central Bank, where the focus will be on the bond market selloff in France. The ECB is set to keep interest rates on hold in a well-telegraphed decision that is likely to be overshadowed by questions about France and ECB President Christine Lagarde's own future.

There is scope for eventual EUR/USD losses, sending the pair below the 2026 low at 1.1113 posted on October 14, especially as the negative 14-day momentum reading is reinforcing the overall bearish structure. A break below the 1.1113 low would weaken the market further and unlock the 1.1000 psychological level for a retest.

Note that EUR/USD's multiple recent failures above the 1.1254 level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1711 to 1.1113 (August to October) fall, seem to have trapped bulls. A "bull trap" is set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses, and is usually a bearish sign.
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(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)