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Apr 13 - 05:55 PM

USD/JPY - Uptrend Hits Target Off 2021'S Base; Potential Fed Hike Peak Pivotal

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 13 - 02:45 PM

  • USD/JPY's nearly 20-yr peak at 126.32 Wed hit 161.8% Fibo off 2021's base

  • Prices still up about 0.15% on the day, but well off the early EBS peak

  • Prices also back below the 2015 peak at 125.86, highest since May 2002

  • Pullback in Treasury yields, long dollar profit-taking weigh [nL2N2WB1CE]

  • A close below Tues's low & 10-DMA at 124.76/3.90 would damage uptrend

  • Prices remain extremely O/B with scant options expiries above 126

  • 1-mo 25d risk-reversals at 2nd most yen put favored since 2015

  • Japan's MOF creating some angst among spec longs, but no BOJ pushback

  • ECB meeting and US retail sales are Thursday's main events

  • If 126.32 holds, 23.6% and 38.2% Fibos at 120.72/117.27 are M-T props

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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