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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Jan 24 - 09:48 AM
G10: The Core Plan Is To Be Long JPY, Bonds, CAD,& CHF - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 05:00 PM
Société Générale Research summarizes its latest strategy bias on a selection of G10 currencies. 
 
 
"Overall not sure risk aversion is a theme rather than a sign that the air around the equity and risk rally is getting thin enough that we'll have good and bad days following each other randomly," SocGen notes. 
 
 
"The core plan is to find ways to be long yen, long bonds, long NOK, CAD and CHF," SocGen adds.
 
 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - Up To High Since Jan 7, Then Down, After UK PMI Beats
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 24 - 06:00 AM
  • GBP/USD rose to 1.3180, highest level since Jan 7, after UK Jan PMI beats

  • Subsequent retreat to test 1.3113 influenced by profit-taking on GBP longs

  • 1.3113 was Asia low. 1.3098 was Thursday's low (1.2962 was Monday's low)

  • UK mfg PMI 49.8 vs 48.9 f/c, service PMI 52.9 vs 51.0 f/c nL8N29T26B

  • EUR/GBP extended south to 0.8390 after PMI beats, lowest level since Dec 17

  • 0.8420 = subsequent rally high. 0.8401 was low pre-UK PMIs nL1N29T05N

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Set To Record Significant Bull Signal
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 24 - 06:00 AM
  • Potential EUR/GBP weekly bearish engulfing line a significant signal

  • UK data puts the final nail in our EUR/GBP 0.8455 long play

  • Our stop was at 0.8390 and post PMI low was 0.8390

  • Small rebound back to 0.8410 but bear risk remains while below cloud

  • A lower Bolli is at 0.8386 then little sup. until the 0.8278 Dec low

  • We now stand side, await next signal













EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

EUR/GBP Weekly Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 06:12 AM
AUD/USD - Offers May Be Lurking Near The 200DMA Again
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 24 - 04:15 AM
  • Fresh offers may emerge near 0.6880 if AUD/USD extends north from 0.6830

  • 0.6880 is the 200DMA. 0.6857 = intra-day high. 0.6830 was Thursday's low

  • Offers just shy of the 200DMA capped AUD/USD after Aussie jobs beat Thursday

  • Subsequent drop to 0.6830 influenced by China virus concerns nL1N29S09J

  • 0.6830 = three pips shy of Wednesday's six-week low. 0.6838 was Asia low

  • China shuts transport and temples as virus toll rises to 25 nL4N29T040

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 05:00 AM
USD/JPY's Slide Could Extend To The Thick Cloud And Key Fibo
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 24 - 02:45 AM
  • USD/JPY could slide to daily cloud, now spanning the 108.38-109.05 region

  • Further support is at 108.98 Fibo, a 50% of the 107.65-110.30 January rise

  • Our buy order is at 109.10, as these levels could stem the bleed

  • Once this correction ends, the underlying bullish cycle then extend

  • Scope for an eventual retest 110.53 Fibo, 76.4% of 112.40 to 104.46 EBS drop

  • EUR/JPY sees 120.96-121.12 Fri. Prev nL1N29S051. USD/JPY Trader TGM2336

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Bearish EUR/USD Closes Under Cloud, 1St Time Since November
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 24 - 02:20 AM
  • EUR/USD has closed below the cloud for the first time since November

  • Slammed Thurs, causing a daily close below cloud base, now at 1.1086

  • EUR/USD also managed to register a daily close under the 1.1060 Fibo

  • 1.1060 Fibo is 50% of the 1.0879 to 1.1240 (October to December) rise

  • Scope for further losses to 1.1017 Fibo, 61.8% of same 1.0879-1.1240 gain

  • Upside blocked by cloud top nL1N29S0L7. EUR/USD trader TGM2334

  • EUR/USD close under the cloud should shock traders nL1N29R08S

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Heavy With Risk, As RBA Cut Expectations Ease Further
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 10:40 PM
  • Touch softer - heavy early interest around NZD CPI nL4N29S4LV, then quiet

  • Very low key session in Asia, little news and wind down to Chinese New Year

  • OIS prices a Feb 4 RBA cut at 17.2% from 23.48% earlier and 48.1% pre jobs

  • AUD positive RBA expectations overcome by China virus fears nL4N29T040

  • Charts are bearish, with momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower

  • 0.6827 January base then 0.6820, 76.4% Nov-Dec rise pivotal support

  • Close below 0.6820 would open the door to the 0.6754 Nov low next week

  • 0.6879, 200 DMA & yesterday's high is first resistance



aud 2 jan 24 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 01:24 AM
AUD: Market Reaction To A SARS-Like Even Would Be Very Different Now Than In 2003 - ANZ
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 04:00 PM

ANZ Research revisit the impact of SARS on AUD rates in 2003. 

The outbreak of a coronavirus strain in the Chinese city of Wuhan has prompted a number of questions about the impact of the SARS virus on Australia in 2003. We’ve taken a look at what happened to the AUD rates market over that year. In undertaking this exercise, we are in no way implying that we think the Wuhan outbreak will unfold in anything like the same manner as SARS.

"In looking through the rate charts for that year, what stands out is the sell-off that took place in the week or two immediately following. For a market that was used to rates being a safe-haven from deflationary shocks, this seems difficult to understand. We expect the market reaction to a SARS-like event would be very different now," ANZ notes.

'The WHO declared a global alert on 12 March. Interestingly, this coincided with an upward spike in front-end pricing. This may, to some extent, have reflected the weakening of the AUD that occurred as a consequence of the WHO alert. Having said this, we note that the US front-end sold-off sharply in the immediate aftermath of the WHO alert Indeed, the moves by both markets were very similar which implies the AUD move wasn’t really a factor,," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
Jan 24 - 12:12 AM
GBP/USD - Expect Choppy Consolidation Into March EU Negotiations
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 10:10 PM

  • Flat in a tight 1.3113/1.1329 range with consistent interest

  • Low key Asian FX session - winding down into Chinese New Year

  • Diplomats cannot rule out a hard Brexit in the tight timetable nL8N29S59W

  • Expect choppy consolidation into EU negotiations to start in March

  • Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging higher, positive setup

  • 1.3158 break, 61.8% Jan/Dec fall would be a strong signal for next week

  • 1.3096-98 21 DMA and NY low and this week's 1.3153 high support-resistance

  • 1.3100 372M and 1.3150 360M are the close strikes


gbp2 jan 24 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Soft, As Soured Risk Appetite Overcomes RBA Expectations
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 07:05 PM
  • Off 0.15%, after closing up 0.1%, as the jobs optimism capped by risk off

  • OIS prices a Feb 4 RBA cut at 23.48% from 48.1% pre jobs

  • No significant data today, risk and China virus headlines to lead

  • Charts are bearish, with momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower

  • 0.6827 January base then 0.6820, 76.4% Nov-Dec rise initial support

  • 0.6879, 200 DMA & yesterday's high is first resistance

  • Close below 0.6820 would open the door to the 0.6754 Nov low

aud jan 24 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - Stalled Below Key Resistance, As Hard Brexit Lingers
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 06:15 PM
  • -0.05% after closing off 0.1%, dragged lower by EUR on ECB nL8N29S0IU

  • Diplomats cannot rule out a hard Brexit in the tight timetable nL8N29S59W

  • Choppy consolidation likely into EU Brexit negotiations in March

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edge higher at familiar levels

  • Modest positive setup, sustained 1.3158 break, 61.8% Jan/Dec fall to confirm

  • 1.3096-98 21 DMA and NY low and this week's 1.3153 high support-resistance

  • 1.3100 372M and 1.3150 360M strikes likely contain in Asia

gbp jan 24 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 05:00 PM
AUD: If RBA Cuts In Feb; It Would Signal That Another Cut Is Likely On The Cards - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 02:00 PM

NAB Research discusses AUD outlook heading into next month's RBA policy meeting.

"Having moved by less than a cent in the last two weeks, it is hard not to conclude that in the absence of a major shock from the USD side, what the RBA does on February 4 is going to be key in determining whether the next 1-2 cent move in AUD/USD is down or up. This is in so far as no move in Feb. will convince some that the RBA has taken to heart criticism that further rate reduction(s) will either serve no useful purpose or could even be counterproductive, while a cut on Feb 4 will convince many that this is the first of two quarter-point cuts that will then lead to a relatively high probability of the RBA embarking on a Quantitative Easing programme later in 2020 or 2021," NAB notes. 

"NAB expects two more rate cuts this year, the first in Feb. Our forecast for AUD ending Q1 at 0.68 and Q2 at 0.69 are unchanged," NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Big Day For Haven Yen On Virus Fallout, PMIs Up Next
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 01:25 PM
  • Yen everyone's haven friend nL1N29S0UA as virus threat assessed

  • USD/JPY down to 109.26 (EBS) so far, probing 38.2% of January rise

  • Close below 38.2% at 109.29 eyes 50%, kijun & cloud top @108.98-9.03

  • Big rise in IMM net spec longs possible selling fodder nL1N29S0LY

  • Tuesday's 109.76 low by the daily tenkan is now decent resistance

  • USD/CNY's surge and USD/JPY's fall have room to run nL1N29S0P7

  • JPY and global January PMIs Friday to take some focus from virus

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Soft Versus Dollar, Gains Versus Euro After ECB Hold
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 01:15 PM
  • GBP/USD limps into close -0.21% at 1.3110; NorAm range 1.3137-1.3098

  • Follows EUR lwr post-ECB hold & position lightening ahead of key PMI data

  • ECB coattails hinder sterling as market awaits deluge of PMIs nL1N29S0MP

  • Pair eyes DMA supports sub-1.31; 21DMA 1.3089, 10DMA 1.3051, 55DMA 1.3032

  • Bulls need a rise above 1.3208/11, 50% Fib of 1.3516-1.29/daily cloud top

  • EUR/GBP dips to 1-mos low 0.8430; ECB hold tipped dovish, BoE cut view reduced BOEWATCH

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 01:24 PM
EUR: Nothing To See From ECB; Keep Moving - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 12:00 PM

Danske Research discusses its reaction to today's ECB policy decision. 

"Today’s ECB monetary policy was uneventful in terms of new policy signals, as Christine Lagarde refrained from giving clues about future of monetary policy, because data since the December meeting was broadly in line with expectations.

"Should the macro backdrop, including the inflation outlook, stay robust around the current level, we see a solid case for the ECB changing its growth risk assessment in H1 20 (potentially as early as the March meeting), together with the new staff projections. However, while resilient core inflation, in combination with a strengthening cyclical rebound, could be enough to convince the ECB to drop the easing bias in H1 20, we doubt it will be enough to take the ECB back into tightening mode in the near future," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-Coronavirus Keeps Risk Of USD/JPY Slide To 109 On Agenda
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 10:00 AM

USD/JPY is retreating as the bearish commercial implications of the spreading coronavirus and related travel bans during China's New Year travel holiday are lifting the haven yen, dragging 10-year Treasury-JGB yields toward H2 2019 lows, USD/CNY toward 2020 highs and giving priced-to-perfection equity markets something to ponder.
Adding to USD/JPY's slide from January's 110.30 high is likely profit-taking by greatly expanded IMM net spec longs, with risk of stop-loss selling as the 107.65-110.30 rise is retraced.
There's some support in the 109.30s, but the daily kijun and 50% Fibo of January's rise at 108.98 should be in play after today's trading range fell below the tenkan at 109.88 nL1N29S0EH.
Given that it could be weeks before there is a decent understanding of just how widely the new virus has spread and how much it will disrupt the Chinese and global economies, the risk-off drag on USD/JPY is unlikely to abate soon.
There is also the chance that the risk-on response to the U.S.-China phase 1 trade deal peaked after the well-telegraphed signing, as the ability to execute the agreement and possible costs to other countries is gauged, particularly with the U.S. turning it trade policy attentions to the EU nL1N29R0Y1 and UK.


Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 11:00 AM
AUD: Stabilizing With Market Scaling Back RBA Cut Expectations; What's Next? - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 08:52 AM

MUFG Research discusses the impact of the this week's AU employment report on the market's expectations for a cut from the RBA at its next month policy meeting.

"The report revealed that employment increased strongly by 29k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower by 0.1 point to 5.1% in December. It has prompted the Australian rate market to scale back expectations for an RBA rate cut at their next policy meeting on the 4th February. According to Bloomberg, the probability of a 0.25 point cut being delivered next month has dropped from around 55% to 25% overnight. ," MUFG notes. 

"However, the better than expected Australian employment report is judged as providing only temporary relief...A more sustained improvement in the Australian economic data flow will be required to change the market’s view over the need for further RBA rate cuts, and encourage a stronger Australian dollar.

For now the Australian dollar is continuing to stabilize at lower levels between 0.6750 and 0.7050 after adjusting lower throughout most of last year," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 08:36 AM
EUR/CHF - Ticks Up From New 33-Month Low Pre-ECB Event Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 06:30 AM
  • 1.0747 is the EUR/CHF high since it hit 1.0729 (EBS) during the European am

  • 1.0729 = fractionally fresh 33-month low (1.0731 was last week's low)

  • Modest recovery precedes ECB rate decision and Lagarde briefing nL8N29S0IU

  • 1.0788 was Wednesday's high, amid SNB intervention talk nL1N29R0SH

  • SNB's Jordan says not manipulating franc nZ8N21702JnZ8N27U01G

  • U.S added Switzerland to its currency monitoring list last week nL1N29J06Q

EURCHF: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Bears Win A Reprieve As Cloud Holds Firm
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 05:10 AM
  • A reprieve for EUR/GBP bulls as the daily cloud base holds

  • Our 0.8455 long still out of court but squeeze risk is increasing

  • Momentum and RSI are confirming the recent price drop however

  • Key support now Wed 0.8423 low and cloud base at 0.8419

  • Today's recovery only becomes a game changer above 10/21-DMAs at 0.8415

  • Above here and we raise our stop













EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jan 23 - 06:12 AM
AUD/USD - Respects 200DMA After Rising On Aussie Jobs Beat
First appeared on eFXplus on Jan 23 - 03:50 AM
  • Offers just shy of 0.6880 (200DMA) are keeping a lid on AUD/USD

  • 0.6879 was Asian session high, after strong Australian jobs data

  • Probability of RBA rate cut on Feb 4 down to 20% vs 50% pre-jobs data

  • See: nL4N29S07F. 0.6856 (Wednesday's high) is now a support level

  • 0.6827 was Wednesday's six-week low, as China virus fears hurt AUD

  • Wuhan on lockdown nL4N29R57J. SSEC closed down 2.8% nAZN003EG3


AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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