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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Nov 19 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Fed, Dollar Misgivings Rekindle EUR/USD Rally Hopes
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:30 AM

EUR/USD is benefiting from nagging doubts over the Fed's ability to keep raising rates and dollar's waning momentum, but there are still some obstacles to a renewed rally. Sliding U.S. Treasury yields are tightening German-U.S.
spreads and contributing to the dollar doubts.
That's boosting EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of testing 1.1500 resistance, with upwardly biased RSIs, with no divergence, and EUR/USD ability to continue holding above the 10- and 21-DMAs enhancing that view.
However, a break above 1.1500 might be difficult.
While tighter Italian-German spreads have helped buoy EUR/USD there is a risk they begin widening again, which could erase recent EUR/USD gains.
The EU's response to Italy's budget is expected Wednesday and an excessive deficit procedure from Brussels might begin. Italian-German spreads might widen again if BTPs come under pressure. If EUR/USD can't clear 1.1500 resistance, then the pair will probably consolidate in the 1.1200/1.1500 range until a new catalyst gains emerges.

chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 11:00 AM
EUR/USD: Supported On Dovish Shift In Fed Rhetoric But Upside Potential Likely Limited - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 09:03 AM

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and highlights the recent dovish shift in Fed's rhetoric which provided some support for the pair but argues that upside is likely to be limited in the near-term.

"The Fed is expected to hike rates again in December, but these more dovish comments raise the likelihood that the Fed will consider pausing rate hikes in 2019 rather than continuing to hikes rates every quarter as they have done so far this year. It is more in line with our own Fed policy expectations which supports our outlook for US dollar strength to ease from next year," MUFG notes. 

"Nevertheless, the euro is still subject to downside risks of its own which limits upside potential for EUR/USD...While Fed comments drove EUR/USD higher on Friday, the market focus this week will likely be on the EC response on Wednesday which will be negative, with the potential volatility from co-movement with the pound from Brexit developments as well. In these circumstances, it is difficult to see the euro building much on gains from late last week against the US dollar," MUFG argues. 

Source:
BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 08:36 AM
USD/JPY - Edges Down Towards Key NY Expiry After Big Clarida Drop
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:25 AM
  • Monday sees USD/JPY dip from 112.86 to hit 112.60 according to prices on EBS
  • Slide approaches the 112.50 NY cut expiry worth 1.0 bln
  • Also talk of bids circa 112.50. Said to be decent offers ahead of 113.00
  • Wrong-footed USD/JPY longs in for a tough week
  • USD/JPY's largest black candle since July a very ominous sign
  • Dovish talk from FOMC Vice Chair Clarida pushed US yields and USD down

EBS Flow Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 07:24 AM
AUD/USD - Remains Above 0.7300 After Clarida Shifts Goalposts
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 05:35 AM
  • AUD/USD elicited fresh support pre-0.7300 after retreating from 0.7324
  • 0.7324 = European am high. 0.7301-0.7325 was Asia range
  • Offers pre-0.7300 capped AUD/USD last Thursday/Friday--before Clarida spoke
  • Short-covering kicked in after 0.7300 vaulted on Fed's Clarida
  • 0.7338 was 11-week high pre-weekend--before US/China tension nL4N1XS007
  • Minutes from RBA's November meeting due Tuesday, before Lowe speech

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY's Largest Black Candle Since July A Very Ominous Sign
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:20 AM
  • USD/JPY, on Friday, formed the biggest black candlestick since July 20
  • That large black candle is a sign the underlying market is very bearish
  • Weakness will be confirmed with a daily close below the 112.46 Fibo
  • 112.46 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 111.38 to 114.21 recent rise
  • That would unmask the daily cloud base, now at 112.16, for a retest
  • Recent large tail had given bulls a fighting chance

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bet EUR/USD Tops Soon But Correction May End With A Twist
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 03:05 AM
  • EUR/USD close to completing a minimum technical correction of Sep-Nov drop
  • 38.2% retrace 1.1815-1.1216 drop is 1.1445 (50% 1.1518, Nov high 1.1500)
  • EUR/USD shorts already pared by 25% by Nov 13 ahead 1.1217-1.1421 rise
  • Need for bigger correction low, bearish factors like rates, techs are strong
  • However, Ichimoku cloud twists often attract and twist 1.1549-58 Nov 28
  • Possible shorts squeezed harder. Sustained rise over 100-DMA 1.1560 unlikely

EUR/USD daily chart Click here

EUR/USD weekly Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - RPT-BUZZ-IMM: Dip To New 2018 Low In EUR/USD Prompts USD Selling
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 02:05 AM

Repeat with no changes

  • EUR specs reverse course buy 9,824 contracts now short 37,019
  • Yen specs sell 13,172 contracts, raise JPY short to 102,294 contracts
  • AUD specs reduce short further bought 6,665 contract now short 59,870
  • GBP/USD specs bottom fish near lows buy 9,692 contracts now short 47,107

EUR-JPY Position Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Quiet Consolidation After Early Dip
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:35 PM
  • EUR/USD dipped to 1.1399 in early Asia from the NY close at 1.1419
  • It has been very quiet since with the EUR/USD trapped between 1.1410/20
  • EUR/USD underpinned by subtle, dovish shift in Fed expectations
  • Price action likely to track moves in US Treasury yields
  • EUR/USD support at 21-day MA at `.`374 and 10-day MA at 1.1352
  • Resistance at 38.2 of 1.1815/1.1216 move at 1.1445

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:29 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500.

We indicated early last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 1.1330) “downward pressure has eased” and EUR has “found a short-term bottom near 1.1215”. We expected “1.1215 to stay intact for the next one week or so” and also expected “EUR to trade sideways albeit with a positive bias within a 1.1240/1.1430 range”. What we did not expect was the strong and rapid surge in EUR during NY hours (closed at 1.1418, +0.81%). While Friday’s peak of 1.1421 was below the top of the expected 1.1240/1.1430 range at 1.1430, the price action suggests the current rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500 (high seen earlier this month). This is a rather strong resistance and at this stage, the prospect for a clear break above this level is not high. All in, we hold a ‘positive’ EUR view from here until there is a break of the ‘key support’ 1.1310.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Prospect of a fresh low for the year has increased. No change in view.

Volatility remains at an elevated level and the whippy price actions over the past few days offer no strong clues on the direction of the next directional move. However, the outsized decline of -1.59% yesterday (NY close of 1.2775) does suggest that the risk of a break of the 1.2662 year-to-date low has increased. All in, we expect GBP to stay pressure in the coming days unless it can move and stay above the 1.2980. Looking ahead, a break of the year-to-date low could lead to acceleration lower towards the next support at 1.2590.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Next level to focus on is at 0.7380.

The 0.7315 level that first highlighted more than a week ago (see update on 08 Nov, spot at 0.7275) was finally exceeded as AUD hit a high of 0.7338 last Friday (16 Nov). While we still prefer upward momentum to be more ‘impulsive’, the break of 0.7315 has shifted the focus to the next major resistance at 0.7380 (with a relatively strong ‘intervening’ resistance at 0.7355). On the downside, the ‘key support has moved sharply higher to 0.7220 from 0.7150 previously. On a shorter-term note, 0.7250 is already a strong support level.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Expect further NZD strength to 0.6900.

We indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 0.6825) a “NY closing above 0.6850 would suggest further NZD strength to 0.6900”. NZD subsequently staged a surprisingly strong rise before closing at 0.6879 in NY (well above the 0.6850 level). From here, the focus is at 0.6900 and break of this level would indicate that NZD has found a mid to long-term bottom at 0.6424 last month. In other words, a break of 0.6900 would suggest the 0.6424 low would likely remain intact in the coming weeks, possibly months. Meanwhile, only a move below 0.6800 (‘key support’ previously at 0.6750) would suggest that an interim top is in place.

USD/JPY:  Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00.

We highlighted last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 113.55) “USD is to trade sideways with a downward bias”. However, the subsequent large decline of -0.70% (NY close of 112.82) is certainly more than a ‘downward bias’. The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in downward momentum and from here; we see chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00. Only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 113.60 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Shorts Could Feel Tighter Squeeze Above 1.1427
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:10 PM
  • EUR/USD on verge of activating bullish chart pattern above 1.1427
  • Mon close above that level on EBS cues Bollinger uptrend channel
  • Signal to capitulate short positions could squeeze EUR/USD up to 1.1558
  • Daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone will likely cap in near term
  • But recent slump in UST yields may be bottoming; 10y at 3.06%
  • EUR/USD needs to end below 1.1312 to reinstate bearish bias

EUR: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 18 - 09:48 PM
USD/JPY - Rise In Japan Exports To US Bodes Ill For USD/JPY
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 07:10 PM

  • Japan Oct exports to US +11.6% y/y, jump after months of relative restraint
  • Exports in general good in October, to China +9.0% y/y and to Asia +7.3%
  • Trade balance in deficit however, Y449.3 bln, Y70 bln deficit eyed
  • Due to 19.9% surge in imports, exports up 8.9% y/y, less than half
  • Higher energy costs into October, special factors behind import surge
  • USD/JPY still relatively strong on 112, exports to US up, USD/JPY toppish?
Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 18 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Vulnerable As S&P Futures Fall At The Open
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 06:15 PM
  • S&P futures down 0.5% as frosty US/China relationship exposed at APEC
  • APEC mood in contrast with optimistic comments from Trump on Friday
  • AUD/USD sold off to 0.7301 earlier from Friday close at 0.7333
  • Support at 10-day MA at 0.7225 and break would warn upward momentum waning

audusd Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 18 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD - Gaps Lower At The Open On US/China Discord
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 01:30 PM
  • -0.3% at the open, as hopes of an ease in China/US trade tensions stall
  • Risk off as US/China show no signs of rapprochement at APEC nL4N1XS007
  • No local Aus data and a light Asian schedule suggest focus on E-mini S&P
  • Momentum studies climb, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup
  • 0.7338 NY close & 0.7320 Asia open 'gap' - these are usually filled
  • NY 0.7251/0.7338 range is initial support/resistance

aud nov 19 Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 16 - 05:00 PM
EUR/GBP: Brexit Scenarios And outcomes For EUR/GBP - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 01:15 PM

Danske Research outlines how the binary Brexit scenarios would impact EUR/GBP prices in 1-3 month. 

"Near term, the political situation in the UK will be pivotal for the GBP. We expect EUR/GBP to stabilise and fall back into in the 0.865-0.88 range if, as we expect, Theresa May survives a vote of confidence. However, EUR/GBP is likely to remain volatile ahead of a Brexit vote in the House of Commons," Danske argues. 

"In our main scenario, where we expect a decent Brexit, we expect EUR/GBP to break lower and settle around 0.83 in 3M. However, the likelihood of our main scenario has declined substantially, while the probability of other scenarios, such as a no-deal scenario, has increased.

We expect EUR/GBP to test 1.00 in a no-deal scenario, while we expect EUR/GBP to break lower into the 0.82-0.86 range if the UK calls a second referendum," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Nov 16 - 03:48 PM
GBP/USD - Shorts Lighten On Reduced Brexit Tension
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP/USD ends NY 1.2830, +0.41%; Pair moves off ession highs into Lon close
  • Early GBP strength as May seen surviving no-confidence vote nL8N1XR1BV
  • Narrowing US-UK rate spread aids GBP rise on dovish Clarida nC3N1R3020
  • GBP/USD shorts lighten, Bears in control below daily cloud (1.2979)
  • EUR/GBP ends NY +0.3% to 0.8894, UK political, Brexit angst favors EUR

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 16 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Trump's Trade Comments May Stave Off USD/JPY Breakdown
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 01:10 PM
  • Trump somewhat more optimistic on US-China trade nW1N1V700F
  • Props up falling USD/JPY, Treasury yields and stocks
  • Clarida's data-dependence comments weighed on U.S. yields pre-Trump
  • Pause in trade war would reduce, not end, risk-off JPY buys
  • USD/JPY threatens a close below key 112.80 kijun
  • 112.57 low held 55DMA, but a sub-112.80 close would be bearish
  • 100-DMA and daily Cloud base at 112.05/15 key props Monday
  • JP Trade data Monday, housing data and PMI week's main US events

Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 16 - 01:24 PM
G10: Where's The Value In G10? - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 11:50 AM

TD Research discusses some of the opportunities that might offer tactical value plays in G10 FX over the coming weeks.

"Our CTA trade rules, for instance, imply the market is now neutral on NZD and AUD. However, we don't think the macro fundamentals are broadly supportive for investors to take these currencies another 5% higher into Q1.

As a result, we think the next few weeks could be another mean-reversion trade in the majors, especially as oil prices have done some damage across the G10. It fits within our view that AUDUSD could stall around 0.74 but selling NZDNOK in cash looks like the most attractive trade going into the final weeks of trading," TD argues. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Nov 16 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-Fed View, Stocks Push USD/JPY To The Brink
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 10:15 AM

USD/JPY is in trouble as a combination of stock market losses, trade war fears and doubts about Fed tightening have put it on course for a close below a cluster of support down to 112.80, which could spark a fresh round of selling.
Though Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida nC3N1R3020 are still making a case for gradual tightening, they both note greater data dependence is needed.
One-year Fed funds futures spreads show the least amount of rate hikes since last month's 52.5bp low, which was the lowest since March.
These doubts are weighing on U.S. government debt yields and, therefore, Treasury-JGB spreads.
Given Q3 contractions in German and Japanese GDP, intractable U.S-China trade tensions , rising risk of a PBOC rate cut and USD/CNY surge above 7 nL4N1XQ22W if U.S. tariffs surge at year-end, the highly rates and risk-sensitive USD/JPY could be in trouble.
A close below last week's low, the daily cloud top and the kijun at 112.94/82/80 would undermine the sizeable overhang of IMM spec longs and make a reversion to the 100-DMA -- 112.03 on EBS -- likely.
There have been six failed attempts to close below the 100-DMA this year.
Will a seventh be as lucky for longs?

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 16 - 11:00 AM
GBP: Where To From Here? Hard To Say But Get Ready For A Volatile Few Weeks - ANZ
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 08:52 AM

ANZ Research discusses GBP outlook and adopts a cautious bias in the near-term, expecting volatility to remain high over the coming few weeks.

"Renewed optimism about Brexit has rapidly unwound following several resignations from the UK government, including Brexit Secretary Raab. Parliamentary support for the proposed deal is now in question, with opposition mounting from both the opposition and ruling Tory party. Prime Minister May’s leadership could be threatened and pro-Brexiters are calling for a vote of no-confidence as they believe that the draft withdrawal agreement does not deliver on the referendum result.

The proposed deal will go to the European Council on 25 November, following which it will need to be passed in the UK’s Commons – this seems unlikely. The options are limited to this proposed deal, a ‘no deal’ or an extension of the Article 50 deadline," ANZ notes. 

"It is hard to say where we head from here but we are set for a volatile few weeks," ANZ argues. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
Nov 16 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Eyes 0.7250 Again After 0.73 Door Stays Locked
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 16 - 06:40 AM
  • AUD/USD threatens 0.7250 after falling from 0.7286 (European am high)
  • Drop influenced by a decline in risk appetite nL8N1XR2SL
  • 0.7250 was Thursday's Ldn am low after retreat from 0.7298 (one-week high)
  • AUD/USD revisited 0.7298 during NY afternoon. 0.7300/03 = Nov 7/8 highs
  • Support points under 0.7250 include 0.7225 and 0.7200
  • Huge 0.7225 option expiry for 10am ET NY cut, A$2.4bln strike

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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