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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Krishna K  —  Dec 05 - 09:33 PM
  • AUD/USD rallies 0.3% in Asia on positive news on omicron variant

  • "Thus far it does not look like there's a great degree of severity-US offl

  • S&P E-Mini +0.45%, U.S 10-year yield up nearly 3bps nL1N2SQ08T

  • Australia to raise its 2022 economic growth forecast - treasurernL8N2SQ005

  • RBA to remain on hold and avoid surprises on Tuesday nL4N2SO0B0

  • 0.6990-0.7006, monthly lows in Sept-Nov holds, leads to mild p/taking on AUD

  • Resistance 0.7050-60, 0.7085-90; only above 0.7100 eases downside pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 05 - 07:24 PM

  • +0.25% on bullish economic forecasts from Treasurer Frydenberg nL8N2SQ005

  • AUD hit hard on Friday as risk appetite stalled - downtrend remains strong

  • RBA likely cautious at Tuesday's meeting, as Omicron spreads nL1N2SQ0J0

  • RBAWATCH prices 7 Dec 25bp rate rise at 1% - fully priced in Aug 2022

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages trend south

  • Daily momentum studies, 21 day Bollinger bands fall - strong bearish setup

  • 0.6990 Nov 2020 base major support, break targets 0.6758 50% 2020/21 rise

  • Early 0.6995 Sydney low and 0.7090 NY high are initial support resistance

For more click on FXBUZ























aud Dec 6 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 05 - 06:14 PM

  • -0.1% after closing up 0.1%, as choppy consolidation around 1.1300 extends

  • Primary downtrend remains supported by divergent ECB and Fed expectations

  • ECB's Lagarde believes no major changes at Dec 16th meeting nL1N2SO0IT

  • Fed policymakers preparing to fight inflationary pressures nL1N2SO1BR

  • Charts show contracting 21 day Bolli bands with coiling 5, 10 & 21 DMAs

  • Neutral setup, but primary downtrend holds while 1.1347 21 DMA caps

  • Longer term target remains a test of 1.1040, 76.4% of the 2020-2021 rise

  • NY 1.1267-1.1334 range initial support, resistance - no major close strikes

For more click on FXBUZ


eur Dec 6 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Dec 05 - 04:29 PM
  • AUD/USD on defensive in early Asia following a bruising 1.2% drop Friday

  • Diverging RBA-Fed rate expectations lead to 1.85% drop last week

  • Omicron concerns, likelihood of faster Fed taper undermine AUD nL1N2SO1BR

  • RBA to remain on hold and avoid surprises on Tuesday nL4N2SO0B0

  • Goldman cuts US 2022 GDP f'cast, AU to raise f'castnL1N2SP09RnL8N2SQ005

  • 0.6990-0.7006, monthly lows in Sept-Nov under pressure; break opens 0.6920

  • Resistance 0.7050-60, 0.7085-90; only above 0.7100 eases downside pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 03 - 04:10 PM

Repeat with no changes

  • USD net spec long in Nov 24-30 period largest since June 2019 nL1N2SO2BL

  • EUR specs -6,788 contract into strength, EUR +0.78% in period

  • JPY net spec short was reduced by 18,387 contracts amid 1.7% $JPY slide

  • GBP$ specs -4,320, now short 38,899 contracts; amid falling rate hike hopes

  • CAD(-10,940), AUD(-16,940), NZD(-3,309) sold amid glbl growth/Omicron angst

  • BTC=BTSP -1% in period; specs sell 1,531 contract, short reduced to -1,691





IMM Position Table: Click here

Majors w/IMM performance Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Dec 03 - 02:48 PM

  • USD/JPY up to 113.61 post-jobs report on initial risk-on response

  • But rise in Tsy yields on plunging jobless rate imploded with stocks

  • Markets fear hawkish Fed & pandemic, doubt Fed hikes will last

  • Prices down 0.5% and by Tues's 112.535 post-Omicron low on EBS

  • Lower 30-day Bolli band also at 112.535, offering some support

  • A sub-112.47 close would eye 50% Fibo & cloud base at 112.125/111.90

  • USD/JPY bulls need rate-risk doom loop to end nL1N2SO1ME

  • It might take easing pandemic angst, more confidence in US recovery

  • Also stall, reversal of 2-5-yr Tsy yields spread bear flattening

    For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 03 - 01:35 PM
  • AUD/USD ending NorAm by 2021 low at 0.7008, -1.2%; Fri range 0.7095-05

  • AUD/USD slides to new 2021 low despite headline NFP miss nL1N2SO1IE

  • US NFP headline data underwhelms, traders focus on falling US unemp rate

  • Diverging Fed-RBA rate view exacerbates recent weakness, trapped longs exit

  • IMM position as of Nov 23 was net -63k contracts; w/41k long 1232741NNET

  • Dec 7's RBA key for bulls, cont'd RBA dovish stance leads to more weakness

  • Sub-0.70 2020 lows from Nov 2020's 0.6990 to May's 0.6495 come into focus

For more click on FXBUZ


AUD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 03 - 02:55 PM

G10: 3 FX Themes For 2022 - Danske

By eFXdata  —  Dec 03 - 02:30 PM

Danske Research discusses the top 3 FX themes for next year.

"Our three themes are #1 The global cycle and investment environment, #2 Monetary and fiscal policy response, and #3 Valuation and the USD cycle," Danske notes.

"We argue that the trading environment of 2022 will be characterised by tighter global economic policy and liquidity conditions. This will likely transmit to both weaker sequential growth and weaker inflation impulses, as central banks react to a worse potential growth outlook than prior to the Covid-19 crisis. We also expect more central banks to acknowledge the more persistent inflationary nature of the Covid-19 crisis and hence challenge the “temporary” concept further," Danske adds.

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 03 - 01:17 PM
  • Sterling slide continues unabated, -0.5% at 1.3227; Fri range 1.3311-1.3209

  • Post-NFP rise to 1.3311 reversed as traders focus on falling unemp rate

  • Back to the BoE blues for sterling after brief US jobs lift nL1N2SO18A

  • Saunders less-hawkish nL8N2SO2MW, Dec 16 hike odds diminish weigh on GBP

  • GBP/USD supt at Fri low 1.3209, Nov 30-2021 low 1.3195, lwr 30d Bolli 1.3156

  • Res at falling 10-DMA at 1.3318, 1.3453 the 50% Fib of 1.4250-1.2676

  • EUR/GBP +0.57% to 0.8544, Fri range 0.8547-0.8495; diminished UK rate hike outlook prods short EUR covering

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 03 - 11:00 AM

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a core bullish bias into year-end.

"The stance of the Fed coupled with higher levels of uncertainty provides good reason to expect further gains for the US dollar into year-end," MUFG notes.

"USD leveraged positioning has been reduced by around one-third in just two weeks which points to scope for a rebuilding of those positions providing scope for EUR/USD to test the 1.1000 level and DXY to breach the 97.000 level," MUFG adds.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 03 - 10:06 AM

GBP/USD fell from its post-payrolls nL1N2SO13H flash high of 1.3311 on Friday near its early U.S. low by 1.3259 as traders focused on falling unemployment rather than disappointing jobs creation, leaving Fed-BoE divergence as the driver with immediate risk of falling to the 200-week moving average at 1.3155.

Hawkish BoE policymaker Michael Saunders nL1N2SO0P0, who voted for a hike last month, dealt sterling a blow before the U.S. payrolls report by saying he wanted more data on the Omicron virus before deciding on rates at the Dec.
16 BoE meeting.

Sterling bears seized control after the BoE unexpectedly held rates steady on Nov.
4 and have yet to loosen their grip as rates traders have pared UK hike expectations from a fully priced 25bp hike in December to a 33% chance for a 15bp hike.

U.S.-UK rate divergence should continue to weigh on GBP/USD, putting the Nov.
30 low at 1.3195 and 200-DMA at 1.3155 in focus, with the Fed expected to accelerate tapering at its Dec.
14-15 meeting to gain flexibility with rates next year.

The BoE and Fed meetings now top the agenda for cable traders as markets look past the payrolls report.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 03 - 09:35 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its USD outlook for next year.

"2022 should be a year of two halves for the USD: (1) Fed rate hike expectations should continue to support the high-yielding safe-haven USD into H122; and (2) a relatively gradual Fed tightening cycle from H222 should keep US real rates and yields negative and encourage investors to look for high-yielding USD alternatives especially as the global economy starts to catch up with the US," CACIB notes. 

"The USD should still outperform ‘true’ funding currencies like the JPY and CHF," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 03 - 08:48 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's Canada jobs report for the month of November. 

"In an outcome that nobody seemed to be expecting, the Canadian economy saw a massive reacceleration in hiring during the month of November. The labour market added 154K jobs, in sharp contrast to the consensus projection for a gain of only 38K, and pushed the unemployment rate all the way down to 6.0%. Hours worked were up a similarly strong 0.7% during the month, taking that measure back up to its pre-pandemic level. It should be noted that Statistics Canada said that the flooding in BC occurred after most survey collection was complete, so any effects from that event will show up in the next report," CIBC notes. 

"The jobs gain suggests that, even if GDP isn’t near its prior trend, labour markets are tightening sharply, and that positions the Bank of Canada to hike earlier than we had expected, although the impact of omicron is of course still creating a significant degree of uncertainty to any such forecasts," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 03 - 08:01 AM
  • USD a tad firm into NorAm, $IDX +0.11%, EUR -0.03%, JPY -0.11%, GBP -0.2%

  • Marts await key US NFP data at 8.30NYT, Rtrs f/c +550k; unemp rate f/c 4.5%

  • Data will be parsed for hints at pace of APP taper, exp'd rate hikes

  • U.S. jobs data expectations and USD reaction nL1N2SO0ID

  • Why the U.S. dollar might run out of steam in 2022 nL8N2SN4PX

  • Chart points for EUR/USD traders to consider nL1N2SO0OG

  • GBP event risk: BoE Dec hike chance recedes on Saunders nL1N2SO0QM

  • China's RRR cuts can fuel bigger yuan rise nL1N2SO0RU

Majors Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Dec 03 - 06:15 AM
  • Our 0.8490 bid filled Thurs and now looking for a cloud break

  • Daily Ichimoku cloud has contained price since Nov 30

  • Cloud parameters currently 0.8484 and 0.8531

  • Daily momentum reading flips to positive: first time since Nov 15

  • Close above the cloud targets the 200DMA at 0.8562

  • Our long target set at 0.8590, just shy of 0.8595 Nov 5 high

  • Weeklies set to close above 5WMA, 0.8490

    For more click on FXBUZ















EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 03 - 04:44 AM
  • Nikkei reverses course to end higher on bargain buying nL4N2SO1IY

  • Dollar gains as Fed hawks circle before jobs report nL4N2SO18T

  • USD/JPY rose from Asia's 112.96 low, to 113.49 in London, EBS data shows

  • USD/JPY chart is pointing to a bigger recovery nL1N2SO0FD

  • But large USD 1.3B 113.00 strike set to expire at the NY cut could attract

  • EUR/JPY's 30-day correlation with USD/JPY sub +0.5: relationship broken

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Correlation Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 03 - 03:42 AM
  • AUD/USD falls to 0.7059 as USD benefits from Fed vs RBA rate outlooks

  • First Fed rate hike expected in May/June vs Sept pre-hawkish Powell Tuesday

  • In contrast, RBA is not expected to raise rates until 2023 nL4N2SM42U

  • 0.7059 is lowest level since Nov 2020 (0.6990 was the low that month)

  • AUD/USD could fall further if U.S. Nov NFP above 550k f/c at 1330 GMT

  • China iron ore futures closed down 2.1% today (up 6.4% on week) nL1N2SO0CF

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 03 - 03:03 AM
  • EUR/USD soft in Friday trading, the tenkan and kijun lines remain negative

  • Where EUR/USD closes at the end of trading on Friday is key for direction

  • Bears need to force a daily close under the 1.1290 Fibo to avert a bear trap

  • 1.1290 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.0636 to 1.2349 (2020 to 2021) rise

  • Tue's 1.1387 peak a barometer for direction, above will signal a bull tilt

  • EUR/USD usually makes gains in the month of December nL1N2SN0MH

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update, more on bear trap nL1N2SN0CQ

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 03 - 02:51 AM
  • Cable drops to 1.3273 (intra-day low) as USD benefits from hawkish Fed speak

  • Mester says Omicron threatens to stoke U.S. inflation - FT nL1N2SO09C

  • Bostic, Daly and Barkin all struck hawkish stances on Thursday nL4N2SO18T

  • First Fed rate hike expected in May/June vs Sept pre-hawkish Powell Tuesday

  • U.S. Nov jobs data due 1330 GMT, NFP f/c 550k. Beat could spur 1.3195 test

  • 1.3195 was 11-month low on Tuesday, after USD jumped on Powell nL1N2SL1O5

  • UK PM Johnson's Tories retain "safe" Bexley seat in by-election, as expected

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Dec 03 - 01:59 AM
  • Nov 30's volatile 1.3195-1.3371 range upset the bearish order

  • However, the bear bias is trying to re-establish itself

  • We are maintaining a short from 1.3285 for 1.3170

  • Daily action forming a bearish continuation pattern

  • Drop under 1.3263, Dec 1 low, sees resumption of bear trend

  • Topside Fibos key, 1.3438 and 1.3514 (Nov 18 high) off 1.3834-1.3195

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Dec 02 - 11:58 PM
  • AUD/USD drops 0.3% as Fed officials show greater consensus for faster taper

  • Heads for 5th week of losses as RBA meeting looms Tuesday nL4N2SO0B0

  • Robust U.S. economic data weighs; Nov U.S. jobs data awaited FrinL1N2SN27Y

  • Omicron concerns undermine risk currencies; AUD/JPY down 0.3% to 2-month low

  • 0.70625 trades Fri in Asia, new 2021 low; 38.2% of 2020-2021 rally @ 0.7053

  • Stronger support at 0.6990-0.7000; resistance 0.7115-20, 0.7150

  • For more click on FXBUZ


aud/usd: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Dec 02 - 10:33 PM
  • EUR/USD opened -0.12% at 1.1305 after topping out ahead of 1.1350

  • The pair traded in a 1.1290/1.1307 range in Asia as risk currencies fell

  • EUR continues to benefit from Omicron concerns and they increased in Asia nL1N2SN1QY

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1275 and break increases downward pressure

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.1359 with sellers ahead of 1.1350

  • EUR/USD likely to consolidate ahead of US non-farm payrolls today

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Dec 02 - 10:25 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.20% lower at 0.7094 and tracked lower through the morning

  • Reports of more cases on Omicron cases in the US soured the mood in Asia nL1N2SN1QY

  • Eminis fell 0.40% while the AXJ index fell 0.60% despite Wall Street lead

  • AUD/USD trading at session lows around 0.7065 - near last week's 0.7063 low

  • Key support is at the 38.2 of the 0.5510/0.8007 move at 0.7053

  • A break below 0.7050 targets the Nov 2020 low at 0.6990

  • Price action setting up for some volatility around release of US jobs data

  • AUD/USD trend lowwer intact while 10-day MA at 0.7148 caps rallies

  • For more click on FXBUZ









aud/usd Click here

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Dec 02 - 08:26 PM
  • The AUD/USD is sinking in Asia and is at the session low at 0.7070

  • Support is at last week's 0.7063 low with major support at 0.7053

  • The 38.2 of entire 0.5510/0.8007 move is 0.7053 and break would be bearish

  • A break below 0.7050 would initially target the Nov 2020 low at 0.6990

  • RBA/Fed policy divergence and Omicron uncertainty weighs on AUD sentiment

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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