• NY opened near 0.6960 after 0.6916-0.6967 traded overnight, pair lifted early

• Upbeat risk helped the pair lift above the 10-DMA, hit 0.6966

• US yields firmed, USD rallied & risk sentiment turned sour

• Gold, silver and equities erased early gains and traded down in NY's afternoon

• AUD/USD fell toward 0.6935, traded up only +0.23% late in the session

• Daily inverted hammer, 10-DMA resistance, falling monthly RSI are bear signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR positioning outlook.

"The notable outperformance of EUR post-CPI reinforced the perception that EUR shorts are exceptionally crowded. While we agree the hedge fund/CTA community is heavily short EUR, broader data is less conclusive. Our asset manager survey shows the biggest reduction in EUR FX exposure on record, but shorts are still within the '22/'24 levels, let alone the depths of the 2010s peripheral crisis," BofA notes.

"Up/down volatility measures imply pockets of crowded EUR shorts (vs. JPY & AUD) but not more broadly. Ultimately, the direction of OAT-Bund spreads remains paramount for EUR - a 100-150bp range (our base case) implies a floor for EUR, especially if no Moody's downgrade next week. That said, our France fieldtrip this week did little to assuage investor concerns," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF elicits support at 0.9260 after extending south from 0.9334

• 0.9334 was Wednesday high. 0.9260 was EBS 10-week low on Oct 2

• Oct 2 low was plumbed as French fiscal concerns rattled the euro

• 0.9486 was EBS 17-month high for EUR/CHF on Sept 30

• Franc-funded carry trades were very popular in Q3 (unwinds since then)

• Stop-loss orders may be sheltering below 0.9250/60, and 0.9200

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD near-term outllook.

"The most intense phase of the EUR sell-off seems to be behind us. The respite came despite lingering concerns about the ability of the parties in the French National Assembly to compromise on the 2027 budget. We think that the EUR has benefited from a broader shift in sentiment on the global fixed income markets that reflected fading central bank rate hike expectations amid softer energy prices and a renewed stock market sell-off focusing on technology companies," CACIB notes.

"These developments helped the EUR by: (1) putting an end to the widening of the spread between OAT and other EGB yields vs Bunds; and (2) helping the currency’s relative rate spreads consolidate near its lows, as investors pare back their Fed and BoE rate hike expectations. In the near term, EUR-investors will continue to follow the progress of the French budget bill in the National Assembly," CACIB adds.

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook for the coming week.

"The focus next week is September’s national CPI. August core CPI eased to 1.7% y/y, below the 1.8% forecast and the eighth month below the BoJ's 2% target, with fuel subsidies offsetting higher oil costs. The recent Tokyo print points to upside risk. Tokyo core CPI jumped to 2.7% in September, and core-core rose to 3.0%. However, much of the jump reflected the end Tokyo’s water and childcare subsidies, which will not carry over to the national figure. Firm core-core and services prints would support our view of a December hike," ANZ notes.

"We remain "sell on rallies", with the 157.9 resistance now being tested and profit-taking likely around 153. Official resolve should cap upside. A move above 160 would likely prompt stronger warnings from Tokyo and Washington and raise the prospect of coordinated intervention. The FOMC on 27–28 October and the BoJ decision on 30 October are the next catalysts," ANZ adds.

• Cable hits 1.3349 after extending north from 1.3137 (11-month low Wednesday)

• 1.3349 is highest level since Sept 22 (1.3386 was the high that day)

• Short-covering has aided the two-cent+ rise to 1.3349

• CFTC data showed net GBP short hit 14-week high in week to Oct 6

• Diminishing probability of Fed rate hike this month weighs on dollar

• Probability of Oct 28 Fed hike is now 15% vs 50% (briefly) on Wednesday

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD breaks the 23.6% Fibo of 1.1711-1.1113 drop at 1.1254 drop for 1.1269 - opens 38.2% Fibo at 1.1341

• Big FX option sales of EUR puts vs calls (downside vs upside strikes) via risk reversals early Friday

• Benchmark 1-month 25d risk reversal sold 0.3-0.275 - from 0.9 last week and near 1.7 l-term high in early Oct

• 2-month 25d risk reversals were sold at 0.4 and 0.3 EUR puts over calls on a huge €700-million a leg today

• Paring of EUR puts and light demand for EUR calls suggests perceived EUR/USD downside risk is easing
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-


EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD has rebounded to 1.1250 from Wednesday's post-CPI low of 1.1113, its weakest since May 2025

• Key Fibonacci resistance is 1.1254, the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1711-1.1113 fall

• A break/close above 1.1254 opens the 21-dma at 1.1293 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.1341

• FX option markets shows traders paring downside bets and mild demand for EUR/USD topside protection

• Support lies with Thursday's 1.1150 low, 200-weekly moving average 1.1102 and 1.1100 option barriers/defence

• Related comment - Dollar may no longer hedge US equity risk
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3325 as probability of October Fed hike declines on Warsh

• 1.3325 is highest level since Sept 23 (1.3345 was the high that day)

• Warsh made no comment on hot US CPI, PPI data when he spoke in Bangkok

• Probability of Fed hike on Oct 28 is now 15% vs 50% (briefly) on Wednesday

• Short-covering aids rise to 1.3325, from 11-month low of 1.3137 Wednesday

• CFTC data at 1930 GMT to show if net GBP short rose again pre-US CPI

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options shows a shift in EUR/USD sentiment over recent sessions

• The risk premium for EUR puts over calls has fallen to its lowest since mid September according to risk reversals

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta risk reversals have halved to 0.45 since last week, after testing long term highs at 1.7 in early Oct

• This comes as more downside positions are pared amid a noted pick up in demand for topside strikes

• Implied volatility spiked from long term lows to its highest since March in late Sept-early Oct, but has peaked for now

• 1-month expiry covers the Oct. 28 Fed, Nov 6 NFP and US mid term election results, which may limit setbacks

• Large strikes in the low 1.12's help to support/contain EUR/USD into Friday's 10-am New York cut expiry
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3309 as AI wobbles rock the dollar

• 1.3309 is highest level since Sept 30 (1.3311 was the high that day)

• Wednesday's low was 1.3137 - before USD fell on AI debt concerns

• Fed's Warsh sees economic tailwinds, mum on rate-path view

• BoE's Bailey sees "quite subdued" second-round price pressures so far

• Guardian-UK's Healey poised to raise taxes on banks in Oct 28 budget

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday October 16

• EUR/USD: 1.1160 (765M), 1.1195-1.1200 (1.7BLN), 1.1225 (2.3BLN), 1.1245-50 (550M), 1.1260-70 (686M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8270 (410M), 0.8285 (560M), 0.8325 (365M).

EUR/CHF: 0.9285 (280M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3220 (492M), 1.3250 (356M), 1.3300-10 (589M). EUR/GBP: 0.8450 (750M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (500M), 0.6930-35 (523M), 0.6950 (714M), 0.6995-0.7000 (613M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.2350 (206M), 1.2450 (392M), 1.2500 (335M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4090-1.4100 (500M), 1.4175 (320M), 1.4200 (300M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (680M), 157.65-75 (430M), 158.00 (925M), 158.20-25 (364M), 158.75 (298M), 159.00 (480M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/INR opens at 94.71 against close of 95.0550 in previous session

• USD/INR drop at comes without specific trigger

• USD/Asia mostly higher, foreign equity outflows persist, Brent crude at $105

• Offshore selling is driving the drop in USD/INR, traders say

• Position-cutting by investors holding long dollar positions, they add

• Several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices late on Thursday suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds

• USD/INR support pegged at 94.70-94.75(Reporting by Nimesh Vora)

• USD/JPY from 158.05 early Asia to 158.18 EBS after the Tokyo fix

• Importer demand behind blip higher, demand now looks to be sated

• Japanese exporters tipped to be on offer above, effective cap?

• Some gravitational pull may be seen from option expiries today at 158.00

• Smattering of expiries above between 158.15 to around 159.00 too

• So-so large below too between 157.50-75 and at 157.00 strike

• Nikkei in rally mode? Up 1.7% @65,542, some bounce after plunge yesterday

• Maybe some foreign currency hedging of equity buys but nothing major

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Fri, activity subdued as investors navigate shifting landscape

• AU equities bounce as fears of global meltdown recede for time being

• AI trade concerns mount, Anthropic projected IPO valuation takes massive hit

• WTI -0.6% to $97.40 a barrel in Asia; Houthis expanding Saudi attacks

• RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent interview Sun

• AUD ultimately targeting 0.6865 support, break would accelerate downswing

• Range Asia 0.6916-24 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7003 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Forrestania Resources rise as much as 9.5% to A$0.345, their biggest intraday pct gain since September 4

• Stock hits its highest level since September 22

• Stock is up 9.4% for the week, it's best weekly performance in one and a half months

• Gold miner says its Edna May Processing Facility remains on track to commence production, with first ore expected to be processed in mid-December 2026

• YTD, stock up 16.7%, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 4.2%, logging their biggest intraday pct gain since August 20

• Sub-index tracks gold prices, which climbed more than 1% on Thursday supported by a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining rises 3%, while Northern Star Resources gains over 3%

• AXGD down nearly 4% this year, including the day's move

(Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.55895 low as RBNZ rate hike bets firm

• RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway says OCR likely to rise, but timing open

• Futures pricing now implies 79.6% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• NZ Sep electronic card retail sales -0.4% m/m (prior -0.9%), +0.9% y/y

• DXY -0.5% & UST yields lower despite concerning U.S. PPI spike

• WTI -0.6% to $97.40 a barrel in Asia; Houthis expanding Saudi attacks

• Range NZ 0.5611-235, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5650 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.9% from Thur 0.69795 high as risk sentiment continues to falter

• DXY -0.5% & UST yields lower across the curve despite notable U.S. PPI spike

• Investors seeking safe-haven assets as concern mounts on AI trade & equities

• WTI +2.7% to $97.65 a barrel on larger-than-expected crude stock draw

• RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent interview Sun

• AUD ultimately targeting 0.6865 support, break would accelerate selloff

• Overnight range 0.69045-435 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7003 0.7282
US Inflation Measures


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.56% at 1.3271; NorAm range 1.3276-1,3232

• UST yields move lower still after stark reversal post CPI Wednesday; UST 7-30yr -10bp

• US tech/AI concerns stir broad risk off rally; equities mixed, Nasdaq -0.6%, Dow +0.9%

• Today's UK GDP, output data post upside surprise, trade deficit dips adds to bullish tenor

• UK CPI/RPI on Oct 21 and Autumn Budget Oct 28 move into focus

• GBP$ res 1.3275 Wed/Thurs high, 1.3333 falling 30-DMA, 1.3406 Sept 17 high

• Supt 1.3232 NorAm low Thursday, 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3137 Oct 14 flash low

GBP$ Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6920 after 0.6980 traded overnight, drop extended early

• USD, US yields rallied after the US September PPI report

• Stocks fell sharply & gold, silver erased some of their overnight gains

• AUD/USD broke the trend line off the March low, hit a 3-month low of 0.6895

• Bears ran out of gas as yields & USD reversed the PPI induced gains

• Gold, silver moved up & stocks turned positive on the session

• AUD/USD neared 0.6925 then neared 0.6915 late, it traded down -0.82%

• Techs lean bearish; RSI falling, pair below 10-DMA, bear pennant base broken

• Comments from Fed Chair Warsh could impact risk in Asia trading hours
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking higher bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.3% at $4,156.52/ounce

• Prices climb more than 1%, looking set to snap three sessions of losses, supported by a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields, while expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month remained subdued despite hotter-than-expected inflation data

• Top miners Barrick Mining and Newmont

rise 1.1% and 1%, respectively

• US listed shares of South African miners Harmony Gold , Gold Fields and Sibanye Stillwater rise 2.5%, 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold advance 1.5% each

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• U.S. Treasury directed Fed to sell euros and buy yen on Friday, July 31

• As a result EUR/JPY has dropped 187.44 to 176.17

• Last trading 176.74 the next downside targets are 175.54 and 173.92

• The main target for the drop led by the US is 171.86

• Correction targets for 2025/2026 bull trend 175.26, 171.34, 167.43

• There is a strong chance of further action to prop yen should it fall

• Support of both BOJ and FED has encouraged specs to sell

•
EURJPY correction targets


EURJPY since US treasury sold

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Dollar eases as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets ease

• Seems market may not be eyeing October Fed hike given split FOMC board

• USD/JPY has slipped to 157.59 from 158.33, in Asia on Thursday, according to EBS data

• The thick cloud, that currently spans the 156.64-158.44 region, underpins

• Overall bias remains on the upside as USD/JPY usually climbs in October

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)