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Nov 13 - 10:55 AM

ANZ: AUD Outlook - Fragile Rallies with a Gradual Approach to 0.65 Against USD

By eFXdata  —  Nov 13 - 10:03 AM

Synopsis:

ANZ's latest analysis indicates a cautious outlook for the Australian Dollar (AUD), emphasizing the influence of global factors over local developments. The AUD's future strength hinges on a combination of a declining US Dollar (USD) and an improvement in global risk appetite.

Key Insights:

  1. Global Factors Prevail: The recent market reactions to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decisions highlight that global influences, rather than local events, are currently more pivotal in shaping the AUD's trajectory.

  2. AUD/USD Fragility and Potential Rise: While the AUD shows potential to rally, these increases are considered fragile. ANZ anticipates a gradual ascent towards the 0.65 level against the USD, contingent on a softening in US economic data.

  3. AUD/NZD Dynamics: Despite a recent dip, the AUD has shown consistent gains against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). New Zealand's weaker economic conditions compared to Australia's could drive the AUD/NZD pair towards 1.10 by the end of the year.

  4. "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact" Phenomenon: The AUD's reaction to RBA's decisions is reflective of the 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' market behavior, underscoring the transient impact of local monetary policy on the currency's value.

Conclusion:

ANZ's analysis suggests a nuanced approach to the AUD's future movements. The currency's strength will likely be influenced more by global economic shifts and the USD's performance than by Australia's domestic economic indicators or RBA's policy decisions. While there is potential for the AUD to reach higher against both the USD and NZD, these advancements are seen as tentative, with the AUD/USD pair's rise to 0.65 being gradual and reliant on broader market trends.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary

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