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Aug 29 - 10:55 AM

Credit Agricole: Month-End Fixing Model Indicates Moderate USD Buying, Strongest Signal for Long USD/CAD

By eFXdata  —  Aug 29 - 09:38 AM

Credit Agricole's month-end fixing model points to a moderate inclination for USD buying as September comes to a close. This projection is based on recent downward trends in global equity markets and the USD's across-the-board outperformance this month. The most pronounced buy signal emerges for USD/CAD, making it the currency pair to watch closely as month-end adjustments kick in.

Key Points:

  • Equity Market Performance: Global equity markets have been on a downtrend for the entire month, signaling a cautious stance among investors.

  • USD Strength: The USD has demonstrated resilience and strength, outperforming other currencies throughout the month. This positions it favorably for month-end portfolio adjustments.

  • Portfolio Rebalancing: Considering the movement in equity markets and the strong USD performance, Credit Agricole's model suggests that investors may show a mild preference for buying USD in their month-end portfolio rebalancing.

  • Strongest Signal for USD/CAD: Among various currency pairs, the strongest signal for a buy comes in the case of USD vs CAD. This makes it the focal point for traders looking to capitalize on month-end flows.

Market Impact:

Traders and investors should keep an eye on the USD/CAD currency pair, as the strongest buy signal points towards this pair. As month-end portfolio rebalancing takes place, moderate buying pressure on the USD is anticipated, which could result in market movements favoring the U.S. dollar.


Credit Agricole's month-end fixing model suggests that the downward performance of equity markets, coupled with the USD's robust performance this month, will likely lead to moderate USD buying during month-end portfolio rebalancing. The strongest buy signal is noted in the case of USD/CAD, offering trading opportunities as the month draws to a close.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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