• USD/JPY up to a fresh 161.95 EBS high overnight but no further

• Asia so far today 161.75-82, pair inching up but offers thick pre-162

• Many of offers to defend 162.00 option barriers, exporters likely in mix

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too though lack of action so far surprise

• MOF feeling effect of intervention here small in light of USD strength?

• But break above 162.00 and ensuing surge would leave USD higher still

• MOF maybe not aware of impact of option KOs, lingering after-effects

• More KOs likely up at 163.00, 164.00 and seen monster at 165.00

• Even if intervention at 165, likely downside limited to around 160.00

• Supporting likely FX action view the recent surge in JPY shorts

• Hourly Ichi kijun 161.75, likely pivot today, hourly cloud 161.55-72

• Ascending 100-HMA 161.65 and 200-HMA down at 161.17

• Option expiries today include 161.00-50 $2.7 bln, 162.00-40 $1.2 bln

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials off some but still wide @273 bps

• Fed seen on hold in July but market increasingly eyeing September hike

• Consensus still for BOJ July hold too but many see September hike likely

• Action in Tokyo likely subdued this morning with eyed on World Cup soccer

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(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)